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Advanced TC Diagnostics and Wind Forecasting Techniques for Tropical Cyclone 19W

This report discusses the latest methodologies in tropical cyclone (TC) diagnostics, focusing on the analysis of TC 19W. It explores ECMWF's 72-hour surface wind forecast using various models, including LGEM and vortectomized fields to assess the winds and vortex properties like ROCI and POCI. The document outlines future steps in TC tracking, including the development of the TCPROP function, the rehosting of HRD DIAPOST, and comparisons with satellite radiances and CSU surface wind analyses. Detailed methods and plans for analyzing TC structures are also included.

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Advanced TC Diagnostics and Wind Forecasting Techniques for Tropical Cyclone 19W

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  1. ESRL HFIP TC diagnostics – tctrack, tcstruct 19W – 2009093000 ECMWF 72-h sfc wind forecast black-white dot = JTWC forecast green-blue dot = model sfc wind center green-red dot = model 850 vort center radial sfc wind speed profile at tau=0,24,48,72 (blue) wind profile used in the NOGAPS TC wind retrievals in black + vortex properties from the CARQ (TC vitals) next step – mfhilo and tcprop functions to locate and find detailed properties of vortex, e.g., ROCI (radius of outermost closed isobar) & POCI (pressure)

  2. ESRL HFIP TC diagnostics – tcfilt (vortectomy) 19W – 2009093000 ECMWF 72-h forecast – 850-200 shear without vortices (19W & 18W) – or vortectomised shear for 19W ~ 10 kt, 18W ~ 7 kt 19W – 2009093000 ECMWF 72-h forecast – 850-200 shear full or with vortex next step – use vortectomized fields in LGEM for five global models: GFS + FIM + ECMWF + NOGAPS + UKMO  consensus LGEM

  3. Plans for next 1-3 y • TC tracking and structure diagnosis • develop TCPROP function to find ROCI/POCI… • HRD DIAPOST rehosting • fimicanes – partition of convective v large-scale precip ~ TCs • run sLGEM – two-parameter LGEM (w/ CSU) • multiple models; w/ & w/o vortectomy • retrieve satellite radiances from model (w/ CSU 2) – dvorak images from model? • comparison with CSU sfc wind analyses

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