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Corrections Population Forecasting Advisory Committee

Corrections Population Forecasting Advisory Committee

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Corrections Population Forecasting Advisory Committee

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  1. Corrections Population Forecasting Advisory Committee March 16, 2010

  2. Introductions • Law changes • SB 1007 (2010) • AIP • April 2010 Forecast • Effects • Preliminary forecast • Comparison of effects • Roundtable • Revocations, those in prison without direct sentence • Community corrections • Other forecast considerations

  3. M57 / HB 3508 • M57 (2008) – RPO, Drug Prior, Drug Quantity • HB 3508 (2009) – Partial Suspension and 30% ET • SB 1007 (2010) – Restrict/Suspend 30% ET • Crime Commit Dates • March 2010 to July 2011 – No 30% ET • July 2011 to January 2013 – Restricted 30% ET • January 2013 to ….. – 30% ET per HB 3508 • Restrictions: Person Felony, Stipulate Others: …firearm, coercion, corpse, LE animal, treason(!) • Past 5 years

  4. Popular reasons to go to prison?…survey says… (annual avg. past 4 yrs)

  5. AIP • February Meeting Comments: • AIP considerations in plea process lessened due to • 20% max reduction • One year minimum? (TS, AIP, TL) • Program demand lessened • Will programs be full? • Will time cuts change?

  6. Preliminary Forecast Direction • Graph: • Base • Base + New ET • Base + New ET + M57 RPO • Base + New ET + M57 RPO + M57 Drug Prior • Base + New ET +M57 RPO + M57 Drug Prior + M57 Drug Quantity • Base + New ET + M57 RPO • Remember: Significant potential for error.

  7. …with SB 1007 Earned Time

  8. …with M57 RPO

  9. …with M57 Drug Prior

  10. Prelim Forecast with All Effects …with M57 Drug Quantity

  11. Preliminary Forecast

  12. Preliminary Forecast

  13. Comparison Graphs Forecast with

  14. Earned Time Comparison • Graphs showing Pre-SB1007 to Post-SB1007 effects

  15. Post SB1007 Earned Time

  16. Pre SB1007 Earned Time

  17. Post SB1007 Earned Time

  18. Pre SB1007 Earned Time

  19. Comparison to Fiscal • Connect to fiscal except with specific reason to deviate.

  20. Roundtable • Revocations, those in prison without direct sentence • Community corrections • Other forecast considerations

  21. Prior and Updated***

  22. Preliminary ImpactsAnnual Numbers • M57 RPO: 200 extra, 2-3 months longer • From 1325 at 24.1 months • To 1525 at 26.8 months • M57 Drug Prior: +110 at 20.4 months • M57 Drug Quantity: • About 70 going from 22 to 44 months

  23. Model Error: Decay vs. Intake DECAY DOMINATES INTAKE DOMINATES

  24. Inmate Forecast Summary • Law changes: • Less impact than expected • “Water under the bridge” until… • Baseline forecast assumes very little change. • Revisit admission assumptions. • Separating baseline change from law change. • Forecast to 2013 driven largely by decay side. • After 2013, law changes for intakes

  25. Forecast Issues • Forecast especially difficult • complex changes to system • changes continue through 2013 • Difficult to separate baseline change from law change. • Additional law change expected. • Expect higher variance, wider confidence range.

  26. Community Corrections • M57 Effects • M57 RPO: expected increase vs. prior • Drugs with Prior: no downward departure • HB 3508 Inactive Probation – 9,500 cases • Forecast does not distinguish: active/inactive • Need DOC input on whether to forecast • Other Issues?

  27. Prison Admissions • All admissions less OYA & “administrative” • Graphs: Past 10 years • Dec 1999 to Nov 2009 • Tables • Early 2000’s, Mid 2000’s, Late 2000’s • Latter 2008, latter 2009 (June through Nov.)

  28. Monthly IntakesFemale, Male, Total

  29. Monthly Intakesby Crime Class

  30. Intake Bed*Months