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Planet Earth

Planet Earth. We Have a Problem. Feedback Dynamics & the Acceleration of Climate Change. 2006 – 6.5 Billion. 1492 – 500 Million. 2050 – 9.1 Billion. 1945 – 2.3 Billion. 1776 – 1 Billion. Population Growth Throughout History. World Population. 9. 8. 7. 6. 5. Billions. 4. 3.

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Planet Earth

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  1. Planet Earth We Have a Problem

  2. Feedback Dynamics & the Acceleration of Climate Change

  3. 2006 – 6.5 Billion 1492 – 500 Million 2050 – 9.1 Billion 1945 – 2.3 Billion 1776 – 1 Billion Population Growth Throughout History World Population 9 8 7 6 5 Billions 4 3 2 1 First Modern Humans 0 160,000 B.C. 100,000 B.C. 10,000 B.C. 7,000 B.C. 6,000 B.C. 5,000 B.C. 4,000 B.C. 3,000 B.C. 2,000 B.C. 1,000 B.C. 1 A.D. 1,000 A.D. 2,000 A.D. 2,150 A.D. Source: United Nations

  4. Atmospheric Carbon-dioxide

  5. Increase in GHG concentration raises efficiency of insulating envelope, reducing net global radiation

  6. Increase in GHG concentration raises efficiency of insulating envelope, reducing net global radiation

  7. Surface temperature rises, driven by retained solar energy

  8. until resultant radiation recovers to establish a new thermal equilibrium

  9. Except that we are accelerating the accumulation of GHGs.

  10. Except that we are accelerating the accumulation of GHGs.

  11. Except that we are accelerating the accumulation of GHGs, and feedbacks are also pushing the system even further from balance

  12. Except that we are accelerating the accumulation of GHGs, and feedbacks are also pushing the system even further from balance

  13. Spatial Sink Geo- thermal energy Temperature Solar energy Radiative Forcing Contrails & Aerosols Cloud Effects Albedo Effect Other GHGs Concentration Carbon Dioxide Concentration Methane Concentration Water Vapour Concentration

  14. Spatial Sink Geo- thermal energy Temperature Solar energy F.G F.R Radiative Forcing F.3 F.4 Contrails & Aerosols F.2 F.5 Cloud Effects Albedo Effect F.1 F.6 Other GHGs Concentration Carbon Dioxide Concentration Methane Concentration Water Vapour Concentration

  15. Spatial Sink Geo- thermal energy Temperature Solar energy F.G F.R Radiative Forcing F.3 F.4 Contrails & Aerosols F.2 F.5 Cloud Effects Albedo Effect F.1 F.6 Other GHGs Concentration Carbon Dioxide Concentration Methane Concentration Water Vapour Concentration

  16. Spatial Sink Geo- thermal energy Temperature Solar energy F.G F.R Radiative Forcing F.3 F.4 Contrails & Aerosols F.2 F.5 Cloud Effects Albedo Effect F.1 F.6 Other GHGs Concentration Carbon Dioxide Concentration Methane Concentration Water Vapour Concentration

  17. Spatial Sink Geo- thermal energy Temperature Solar energy F.G F.R Thermal Inertia F.3 F.4 Radiative Forcing Contrails & Aerosols F.2 F.5 Cloud Effects Albedo Effect F.1 F.6 Other GHGs Concentration Carbon Dioxide Concentration Methane Concentration Water Vapour Concentration

  18. Spatial Sink Geo- thermal energy Temperature Solar energy F.G F.R F.Ti F.3 F.4 Thermal Inertia Radiative Forcing Contrails & Aerosols F.2 F.5 Cloud Effects Albedo Effect F.1 F.6 Other GHGs Concentration Carbon Dioxide Concentration Methane Concentration Water Vapour Concentration

  19. Most of the systems known to affect Climate Change are now in net positive feedback. Each feedback mechanism accelerates its own specific process. As a whole, the complex adaptive feedback system consists of an interactive set of mutually reinforcing subsystems.

  20. This second order feedback system therefore accelerates the rate of Climate Change

  21. Dennis Bushnell, Chief Scientist, NASA Langley Research Center 12th January 2007

  22. James Hansen, Director, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies. 18th February 2007

  23. Beyond the Tipping Point Towards the Anthropocene Extinction Event

  24. “Tipping Point”or Bifurcation Between Two Attractor Basins

  25. Introducing the Concept of “Critical Threshold”

  26. “Critical Threshold” the point beyond which the power of positive feedback overwhelms the capacity for human intervention

  27. “Critical Threshold” the point towards which the cost of climate stabilisation escalates asymptotically towards infinity

  28. Cost of Climate Stabilisation

  29. We are now in the early stages of runaway Climate Change. There does not appear to be any naturally occurring negative feedback process in place to contain its effects.

  30. Strategically we have to generate a negative feedback intervention of sufficient power to overcome the now active positive feedback process.

  31. Then maintain its effectiveness during the period while temperature-driven feedback continues to be active.

  32. Climate Stabilisation Strategic Imperative for Tomorrow’s World

  33. Radiative Forcing Or Global Heating The Gap between Energy received from the Sun and Energy radiated back into space from the Earth

  34. Accelerating Global Heating +ve Global Heating 0 Thermal Equilibrium -ve Time Radiative Forcing -

  35. 480 Radiative Forcing 460 440 2.5 420 400 380 380 3.6 2007 2007

  36. 480 Radiative Forcing 460 440 2.5 420 400 380 380 3.6 2007 2007 2007

  37. 480 Radiative Forcing 460 440 2.5 420 400 380 380 3.6 + CO2e 2007 2007 2007

  38. 480 Radiative Forcing 460 3.6 440 + H2Ovap 2.5 420 400 380 + CO2e 380 2007 2007 2007

  39. 480 Radiative Forcing + Albedo-change? 460 3.6 440 + H2Ovap 2.5 420 400 380 + CO2e 380 2007 2007 2007

  40. Radiative Forcing Or Global Heating Value of about 4 watts per square metre

  41. Radiative Forcing Or Global Heating Value of about 4 watts per square metre Is reduced by 1 w.m-2 for Global Dimming

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