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Yield Estimator: A Decision Aid for Risk Management in Texas Crop Production

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kali
53 diapositives · 698 Views · Sep 07, 2014

The Yield Estimator, developed by the Texas Agricultural Experiment Station, provides Texas growers with a user-friendly decision aid to minimize risks associated with weather, soil type, and agricultural practices. With features such as real-time yield assessments, graphical result comparisons, and the ability to export data to various platforms, users can quickly simulate and analyze different management practices. The software is designed for easy installation and operation, enabling efficient decision-making to optimize crop production and profitability.

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Yield Estimator: A Decision Aid for Risk Management in Texas Crop Production
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  1. Yield Estimator A Risk Management Decision Aid for Field Crop Production Developed by Texas Agricultural Experiment Station Blackland Research and Extension Center Temple, TX

  2. The Purpose Provide a user-friendly decision aid to help Texas growers minimize risk associated with weather, soil type, and production practices.

  3. Yield Estimator Features • A Windows interface around the EPIC (Erosion-Productivity Impact Calculator) model with prepared databases in order to predict yields based on varying management practices. • The user should be able to install and make a basic run in less than 30 minutes. • After a few hours of experience the user should be able to make comparative simulations in less than 5 minutes.

  4. Yield Estimator Features (Cont’d) • Update current weather, soil, and crop characteristics and management practices for a “Real-Time” assessment of crop yield. • Displays graphical comparisons of results for immediate assessment. • Exports results to standard spreadsheet, database software, graphing software, or geographic information systems for specialized analyses.

  5. Other Features • Units • metric (SI) or English • Prices US $ or Canadian $ • Lat./Long. degrees: minutes: seconds or decimal degrees • Range checking for typing errors • Data saved at 3 levels • original default • Setup - “permanent” • Custom - “temporary”

  6. Crop fertility (N, P, K, and manure) Row spacing Seeding rate Cultivar type Tillage/residue management Crop rotation/sequence Irrigation Pesticides Management Considerations

  7. Processes Simulated • Crop growth & yield • Water balance/hydrology • Weather: historical, current, simulated • Soil: physical/chemical • Erosion and nutrient/pesticide fate • Economics/profitability • Interdependencies of spatial/temporal variability

  8. Yield Estimator Capabilities • Simulate Yield / Identify Limitations • Simulate Effects of Varying Management Practices • Real-time Analysis • Automated Download of Soil and Weather Data • Comparisons / Batch / Acre-weighting • Customization / Detailed Input • Windows Interface • Output Analyzer • Report Writer • Regional Data Formatted and Packaged on CD

  9. Interdependencies • Yield Estimator helps evaluate interdependencies associated with temporal (weather) and spatial (soil) variation to optimize profit.

  10. Temporal ExtremesRainfall, Temple, TX

  11. Soil B Soil C Soil A Spatial Variation

  12. Optimizes Management • what is going on? • where are we? • what factor(s) limit production? • how do we maximize profit? • what is the cost / benefit? • environmental consequences? • what if ….? • evaluation?

  13. Edit Screens Input Screens Climate Soils Producers YE_ Run_ Table Climate • EPIC Soils (Selected output variables from EPIC) (Used for debugging and problem solving) (Overwrite) (Overwrite) Yield Estimator Flow Chart Windows 95/98 Interface Input Interface Compare Import YES-Link Updatable tables Fixed tables Cropping System Soils Climate Real Time Sources EPIC DATASET (Flat File) Weather (Overwrite) Cropping System Accessory tables used to customize runs, make batch runs, etc. Soil Moisture Soil Nutrients EPIC Output Tables Flat Files Flat File Plant Tissure (1 or more records per run) run 1 run 2 run 3 Import Standard output - Option to print Analyze - Compare 2 or 3 runs - Option to print • Export GIS System 9/16/98 ye2.ppt

  14. Regional DatabasesCustomized for 6-8 Counties • Soils - STATSGO • Weather - NOAA / NWS: 1st Order + Cooperators • Analyses using Cropping Systems, Tillage Equipment, Pesticide, and Fertilizer Budgets – Sources: NRCS / Extension / CTA & RCS

  15. Yield Estimator Databases • What is available today? • >2,000 US counties • > 100 Texas counties • 40+ years of daily and average monthly weather (1956-99)

  16. Main Menu

  17. SETUP Menu

  18. SETUP: Edit Budget/Tillage

  19. SETUP: Edit Equipment

  20. SETUP: Edit Equipment (Cont’d)

  21. SETUP: Cropping Systems

  22. SETUP: Edit Cropping System

  23. SETUP: Edit Cropping System

  24. SETUP: Soils Menu

  25. Edit Soil Characteristics

  26. Main Menu: New Run

  27. Enter Producer and Run Unit Data

  28. Standard Run

  29. Standard Run Result20-year average

  30. Results of Standard Run

  31. ResultsStandard Run w/ Stresses

  32. Detailed GraphDrought Stress Days

  33. Graphical Report Writer

  34. Result Export Menu

  35. Customized and Real-time Runs

  36. Customize Menu(individual run)

  37. Edit Soil Properties:Reduce Nitrates (customized run)

  38. Real-Time Management Editor: Add Nitrogen Fertilizer

  39. Real-Time Management Editor:Add Fertilizer, Eqpm’t, Tractor

  40. Identify Date to Start Real-Time Run

  41. Real-Time Results

  42. Real-time Yields: Starting 6/01/97, 20 outcomes using generated Temple weather

  43. Comparison Run

  44. Select Comparison Type:Planting Date Alternatives

  45. Comparison Runs:Three Planting Dates

  46. Editing Planting Dates for Comparison Runs

  47. Comparison of Three Runs: Results

  48. Comparison Run 43:1978-97 Yields Planted 3/10/97

  49. Drought Stress Comparisons:Planting Dates-3/10, 4/04, 5/04