1. The Global Food Security Challenge (www.worldbank.org/wdr2008) GLDN for ECA, Dec 18th

2. Critical Role of Agriculture in Food Security • In ensuring adequate food supply • Global food supply and demand (and shocks) • National food supply and demand for many countries (Africa, China, India) • In providing means for poor to access to food • 75 percent of the world’s poor are rural, and most depend on agriculture for livelihoods • Essential role of agriculture in providing subsistence and incomes of the poor

3. Agriculture as a Powerful Engine for Increasing Incomes of the Poor • Major conclusion of World Development Report 2008: Agricultural growth is two to four times more effective in reducing poverty than growth coming from other sectors Agricultural growth is especiallybeneficial to the poor 3

4. Whither global Supply and Demand?

5. Critical land and water constraints GlobalMarkets ̶ Supply Side Cropland per capita of agricultural population % of population in absolute water scarcity

6. Growth rates of yields for major cereals in developing countries are slowing GlobalMarkets ̶ Food Supply

7. Rising Energy Prices and Climate Change Price of Urea Fertilizer ($US/t) Climate change will negatively affect yields in the tropics, 2080 Source: Cline (2007) Doubling of oil prices increases grain prices by at least 20%

8. Changing diets ̶ Rising demand for high value products (and feed grains) Global Markets: Demand Side Meat Horticulture Cereals Developing and transitional country consumption Developing and transitional country exports

9. Demand for Grain for Biofuels is a Major New Factor in Global Markets Source: OECD and FAO, 2008

10. Long-run Prices are Projected to Rise with Current Investment Trends Source: Rosegrant et al., 2008

11. Food Production—Continuing Challenges in the 21st Century • A greater global challenge • More from less • The end of long-term falling food prices? • Trade offs with the environment • Increased volatility • Climate change, energy prices • Future policies on biofuels, reserves, export bans • Inclusive growth • Sharing benefits between producers and consumers • Connecting smallholders to emerging markets

12. Investing for food security

13. Requires Emphasis on Both Technological and Institutional Innovations: • Technological innovations • Higher yield potential to revamp productivity growth • Overcoming key resource constraints (water, drought) • Role of GMOs for poor farmers and consumers • Substitution of fossil energy use • Adaptation to climate change and reduced GHGs • Institutional innovations • More efficient and inclusive supply chains • Collective action by farmer organizations • Risk management for more frequent price shock

14. More and Better Investments in R&D to Bridge Growing Divide Agricultural R&D Intensity 2000 (% AgGDP) Agricultural R&D as a Share of Budget, 2000-04 Source: Pardey and Beintema,

15. Recent Yield Advances Indicate the Potential for R&D to Reverse Trends

16. Implications for the Global Community • Do no harm • Reform farm and biofuel subsidies • Mitigation of climate change • Invest in global public goods • R&D (CGIAR) • Get agriculture back on the agenda • Reverse trend in foreign assistance • Revamp national food and agricultural strategies