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Statistics: A Conduit of Trust - Dr. Pali Lehohla, Statistician-General

This document discusses the role of statistics as a trusted source of information, highlighting the achievements, risks, and value added by statistical development. It covers topics such as financial standing and impact, governance, and the impact on strategy. It also includes an invitation to explore the past 22 years of statistical development.

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Statistics: A Conduit of Trust - Dr. Pali Lehohla, Statistician-General

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  1. Statistics, A conduit of Trust DrPaliLehohla Statistician-General

  2. Contents Statistical development Governance Key Achievements Risks Value add Financial standing and impact Impact on strategy

  3. Invitation

  4. Statistical development over the past 22 years

  5. 2006/07 2007/08 Unqualified 2008/09 Unqualified Governance and audit trail (over the past 10 years) Unqualified 2009/10 Unqualified 2010/11 Unqualified 2011/12 Qualified 2012/13 Unqualified 2013/14 2014/15 Clean 2015/16 Clean Clean

  6. 2016/17 2015/16 1st quarter Delivery of key projects

  7. Delivery 1st quarter 28% spending 8,9% vacancy rate 41,4% female in SMS posts 1,2% staff with disabilities

  8. African Statistical Development International Statistical development • AU: Technology and Financing strategies • CRVS support to African countries • Young African Statistician Conference • Indicators for Agenda 2063 Global Statistical Development • Indicators for SDGs • Won the bid to host UN World Data forum

  9. Reputational Risk Risks In the system • Earned the status: Statistics, a conduit of trust • Sustaining and managing this reputation • Sustained delivery of quality products • Transparency in what we do Financial Risk • Sustained delivery of quality products • Better efficiency through innovation • Funding emerging measurement priorities

  10. IES GDP(E) Position of Stats SA Funded from savings in CoE Risk: cannot reweight & rebase CPI CPI will become irrelevant over time Adverse impact on: Inflation rate, Economic growth, poverty line and indicators

  11. Statistical Coordination & partnerships Growth through Coordination e.g. Agriculture Census (EC) Administrative records CSS Collection, processing, analysis, dissemination National processing centre Statistical information frame for the State Risk: Incoherent policy decisions & outcomes

  12. Spatial information frame Statistical Geography Constitutional Judgement: Addresses for all Investment: Allocation of addresses Outcome: Integrated spatial information frame Value add: Integrated GIS for the state Risk: Duplication of GIS effort Impact: Incoherent Spatial planning & development

  13. Statistical tools Value add through research and integration e.g. SAM, GAF, ZIPf Integrated policy research and analysis Investment: Statistical expertise for increased knowledge and insight in planning, policy development and monitoring policy outcomes Value add: Identify inefficiencies in the system Risk: Incoherent policy decisions & outcomes

  14. Overview: SUT: An annual industry by product matrix showing what product are supplied by each industry for use by same or other industry GAF: Provides periodic scenarios for improving incomes through labour productivity, labour absorption and terms of trade SAM: Identifies beneficiaries of policy outcomes NA: Provides value add on 10 industries and 300 sectors quarterly Uses space periodically as a unifying tool of plans, policy actions and outcomes

  15. Statistical geography • Statistical coordination mechanisms Legislative reform • Data revolution • State wide statistical service • Institutional arrangements and protocols

  16. Historical cost cutting measures Finance Control Committee: oversee daily request • 1. Travel and subsistence • 2. Advertising • 3. Venues • 4. Stationary and printing • 5. Strategic sourcing including negotiating lower prices • 6. Fieldwork: • transport allowances, • accommodation, • rate of pay FINANCIAL standing What have we done with the savings from vacancies Strategic decision to fund priorities 1. IES/LCS 2. Master sample 3. Shortfall on devolution of funds

  17. CoE has been used to fund: • Key priority projects e.g. IES/LCS • Shortfall in goods and services • Devolution of funds • Y1: Management will take due care not to overspend on allocation of CoE (Y1 reduced by R107 million) • Y2: Reduction of further R57 million will impact on “warm bodies” – not within Stats SA’s ambit FINANCIAL impact

  18. IES/LCS • Inability to reweight and rebase CPI • Statistical Geographic Frame • Duplication of GIS efforts in the country will continue IMPACT on strategy • GDP(Expenditure) • Inability to sustain investment made over the past 4 years • International Standard for Industrial Classification (ISIC4) • Credibility of official statistics will be challenged; Impact on risk rating; Accurate measurement of policy outcomes • Statistical coordination • Measurement of policy outcomes questionable • Innovation and modernisation agenda • Will loose gains made and efficiencies created in the system

  19. Invitation

  20. THANK YOU

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