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Epistemic uncertainty in California-wide simulations of synthetic seismicity

Epistemic uncertainty in California-wide simulations of synthetic seismicity. Fred Pollitz, USGS Menlo Park. Acknowledgments: David Schwartz, Steve Ward. Ward (2000). Rundle et al. (2008). Capabilities of this simulator. Inherently discrete fault zone (Ben-Zion and Rice model)

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Epistemic uncertainty in California-wide simulations of synthetic seismicity

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  1. Epistemic uncertainty in California-wide simulations of synthetic seismicity Fred Pollitz, USGS Menlo Park Acknowledgments: David Schwartz, Steve Ward

  2. Ward (2000)

  3. Rundle et al. (2008)

  4. Capabilities of this simulator

  5. Inherently discrete fault zone (Ben-Zion and Rice model) • Homogeneous, planar faults • Viscoelasticity of lower crust/upper mantle --> loading through backslip in the fully relaxed limit

  6. Fault network and • slip rates courtesy of • Steve Ward (June, 2009) • Original set of ~4 x 3 km2 • patches are re-grouped • and subdivided into set • of smoothly-connected, • non-overlapping • ~1 x 1 km2 patches • 101208 fault patches

  7. Stress history on a single fault patch Static frictional stress Dynamic frictional stress Arrest stress Dynamic overshoot parameter: D = (ss - sa)/(ss - sd) Stress reduction parameter: Ds = ss - sa

  8. Simulator parameters Dynamic overshoot parameter: D = (ss - sa)/(ss - sd) Stress reduction parameter: Ds = ss - sa Shape of slip-weakening curve Mantle viscosity hm

  9. Twenty consecutive M>6.7 ruptures M6.9

  10. M7.2

  11. M7.0

  12. M7.6

  13. M6.7

  14. M7.5

  15. M7.6

  16. M7.2

  17. M6.7

  18. M6.7

  19. M7.7

  20. M7.3

  21. M7.5

  22. M7.3

  23. M7.3

  24. M7.2

  25. M6.7

  26. M7.2

  27. M7.3

  28. M7.5

  29. Simulator results • mean recurrence interval (for given magnitude threshold) • magnitude-frequency statistics, e.g. b-value • coefficient of variation • conditional rupture probability

  30. Hanks and Bakun (2007)

  31. Magnitude-frequency statistics

  32. With slip weakening D=1.25 hm= 1.2 x 1019 Pa s log10 [earthquake production rate (yr-1)] magnitude

  33. With slip weakening D=1.25 hm= 1.2 x 1019 Pa s

  34. Low Mantle Viscosity

  35. High Mantle Viscosity

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