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Development of a Gas Flow Model for the NTS Network: Enhancing User Interaction and Capability

This presentation outlines the proposed independent gas flow model for the National Transmission System (NTS) created by the Smith Institute. It aims to improve user understanding of NTS capabilities and facilitate desktop interaction for capacity evaluations under various demand scenarios. Key features include web-based access, rapid feasibility assessments, and a transparent interface, designed in collaboration with users. The development phases cover steady-state capacities, dynamic demand variations, and cost forecasting, with a projected budget of £250-300k over 10 months.

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Development of a Gas Flow Model for the NTS Network: Enhancing User Interaction and Capability

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  1. A GAS FLOW MODEL FOR THE NTS NETWORK MELVIN BROWN CLAUDIA CENTAZZO JOGT Meeting, London, 5 June 2008

  2. Presentation outline • Presentation of our outline for the model • Presentation of the way forward • Hear about the users requirements • Discuss the way of engagement and the follow-up mechanism

  3. Smith Institute – who are we? • The Smith Institute is a not-for-profit organisation • We solve problems using mathematical modelling • We work in a range of industrial sectors including energy and we have previous experience of working with Government and regulatory bodies as well as a wide variety of companies • We have been commissioned by Ofgem to conduct a feasibility study on an independent gas flow model for the NTS • The model is being presented today as a development & desktop implementation opportunity for NTS users

  4. St. Fergus user A user D Teesside user C Burton Point Rough Barrow user B Easington Theddlethorpe Bacton NTS configuration demand Motivation - interactions of user supply, demand & NTS capability • Users’ perspective: • interactions through NG • overheads & time • restricting user ability to explore/understand NTS capability • NTS capability under utilised • => Model directed towards needs of users and easily accessible to them

  5. St. Fergus Terminals Compressors Regulators Teesside Burton Point Rough Barrow Easington Theddlethorpe Bacton Gas flow model - aims • Provide users with: • improved understanding of NTS capability and its technical capacity • desktop interaction with constraints & opportunities • a transparent and easy system to use • In particular: • to identify entry capacity options N months in the future for a range of demand scenarios

  6. St. Fergus Terminals Compressors Regulators Teesside Burton Point Rough Barrow Easington Theddlethorpe Bacton Gas flow model - advantages • Key features of the proposed model • uses NTS data • Up-to-date - present and planned • range of demand scenarios • easy for you to use • web-based PC interface • fast • feasibility of entry capacity options returned in ~ minutes • validated against NG NTS data • part of support & maintenance • User based forum for interaction with NTS & NG • Alternative • sophisticated network software (e.g. SynerGEE, FALCON) • detailed system knowledge & high overheads • correspondence without NTS interaction

  7. Gas flow model – users’ view User k For each demand scenario: revise to ‘nearby’ supply vector NTS constraints violated

  8. Gas flow model – behind the scenes NTS data & constraints NG Explore NTS capability NG: TYS etc users Users: supply & demand vectors

  9. Gas flow model - in practice Secure model & web server NTS data NG User queries and responses Users, NG, others? NTS data updates Users – model interaction Model development testing & release System admin, testing & maintenance

  10. Development of the follow-on process Driven by users • Phase 1: steady state entry and exit capacities, including line-pack off-take/supply for a range of demand scenarios; NG TYS as a starting point • Phase 2: dynamic - flexibility to model the variation of demand during the day (hourly) • Phase 3: modelling costs of new capacities, fuel usage and effects of new entry/exit points – forecasting tool

  11. Gas flow model – development cycle • For each phase: • Requirements • User, data, technical, security, maintenance • Design and implementation • Testing – including users • Release • Maintenance

  12. Development of follow-on process – Phase 1 We are here to explore the funding options forPhase 1 with the gas industry as starting point. Phase 1 (steady state model) will involve: • development of model, • implementation and testing in IT system, • service delivery to users desktops (plus maintenance and users support) We have held initial discussions with a commercial organisation (Tessella, www.tessella.com) to partner on b) and c) • Cost: ~ £250-300k • Time scale: ~10 months from commitment of funds from the industry • Further: licence arrangements for users

  13. Open discussion We welcome your views …

  14. Contact details • Melvin.Brown@smithinst.co.uk • Claudia.Centazzo@smithinst.co.uk • 07917 697914 • www.smithinst.co.uk

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