1. POLITICAL BAROMETER A Study of Socio-Political Preferences of People of Pakistan

2. Background • First civilian government completing it’s term • Chief Election Commissioner appointed through parliamentary consensus for the first time in the country’s history • Caretaker government to be decided in consultation instead of being chosen by the president

3. The Political Barometer Survey • Covers a wide range of socio-political indicators • Conducted across broad sections of the society • Rapid assessment around 1,300 respondents in 52 districts, reflecting on issues like electoral reform, governance, security, interprovincial relations, arts and culture, civil rights, and foreign policy • Strata take account of ethno-linguistic lines instead of the traditional provincial demarcation

4. Sampling • Demographic sample based on the population census of the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics • Stratified Sampling • Ethno-linguistic • Gender • Urban/Rural • Age • Income • Educational qualification

5. Questionnaire, interviews, and challenges • Both open-ended as well as close-ended questions to minimize biases • Conducted in 52 districts across Balochistan, FATA, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Punjab, and Sindh • Occasional reluctance and difficulty by respondents to respond to a few questions • The data was verified through randomly contacting reluctant respondants • Respondents’ understanding of technical terms like MFN

6. Issues

7. Electoral Process

10. Corruption

13. Foreign Policy

16. Relations with neighbors

19. Internal Security

22. Political Economy

23. Pressing issues based on education levels Higher Levels of Education Lower Levels of Education • Extremism • Political instability • Interprovincial problems • Inflation • Gender discrimination • Food shortages

27. Provincial Matters

32. Civil-military relations

33. Women

42. Minorities

46. Voting trends

47. Party support across different ethnicities

48. Voting trends vis-à-vis voting history • Vote bank for PML-N  Stagnant • Vote bank for PPP  Declined • Vote bank for PTI  Stronger urban base

50. PPP • Roughly one-third of the respondents earning below Rs. 30,000 indicate a preference for PPP • Reinforces the pro-poor image of the party • Support from those earning over Rs. 30,000 dropped to 10.8% • PML-N • Support appears similar across all income groups • PTI • 33% of those earning over Rs. 250,000 intend to vote for the party