Climate and Global Change Working Group Report NOAA Climate Review September 15-17, 2003

1. Climate and Global Change Working Group ReportNOAA Climate ReviewSeptember 15-17, 2003 NOAA Science Advisory Board Nov 3, 2003

2. General Comments • Follow-up to April Meeting • Joint meeting with the Climate Monitoring Working Group for half day • Focus was NOAA Climate Program, response to WG advice from April meeting • Chicago venue for the joint meeting

3. Agenda - CGCWG • CCSP Update • NOAA Climate Program Structure • CCSP Deliverables • April Climate Program Review Followup • Intraseasonal to Interannual Prediction Program • National Strategy for Climate Model Improvement and Product Generation • Carbon Cycle Observing System • Clouds and Aerosols • Budget Update & Strategy

4. Agenda - Joint Session with CMWG • NPOESS and Climate Data Records • Data Stewardship and CLASS (Comprehensive Large-Array Stewardship System) • NOAA Baseline Assessment for Climate Observations and Analysis • Adaptation of Model Data for Use in Assessments

5. General Comments • NOAA must integrate corporate plan with the national plan (CCSP) • Budgetary constraints lead to tensions between ongoing and new activities, e.g. monitoring/ observing vice new networks/technology, new thrusts (ecological dimensions) • NOAA’s role in ecosystem observations vis a vis other thrusts is yet to be articulated • Decision support currently is ill-defined/immature • Priority setting for the program is/will be paramount

6. CCSP Update • Annual Guidance memo to be reviewed by C&GC and CMWG • NRC Climate Data Records study • Workshop held on “Analysis of the Climate System” • Intra-Seasonal-Interannual Program Planning • Request for input on program priorities and strategies, e.g. Ecosystem activities, continuity in climate monitoring, NOAA role in the broad, national program, dealing with fiscal constraints, etc. • “…base program is a higher priority than the initiatives…”

7. Intra-Seasonal/Interannual Prediction Program • Integrated, requirement based, product driven R&D program • Need a paradigm for ISIP forecasts and services • Matrix/Program management challenges • Challenged by April Review advice • Performance measures goal: “…a realistic skill score” • Computing infrastructure needs enhancement for success • Climate Model Diagnostics Consortium - addressing the role of the tropics in drought and climate variability • Regional applications - need the “pull” from stakeholders • Where is the stakeholders’ input in the program plan? • Should it be/is it connected to the “attribution” dimension of the program?

8. Strategy for Climate Model Improvement • Target is the IPCC runs - IPCC is a/the major customer • Applaud emerging collaborations with other groups • Commited to Env. Systems Modeling Framework • NCEP interactions with GFDL and academia have been slow to develop than hoped • Concern about the priority/plan for ocean data assimilation • Concern about regional climate modeling and/or downscaling activities • Must take care to have the earth system modeling activities be a true community effort and not simply a a more local GFDL collaboration

9. Carbon Cycle Observing System • North American Array design • Tall towers, intensive sites, surface sites, aircraft tradeoffs • Time/space scales (1000 km/variable in time) • 30 sites in 2007 • A conundrum: east coast/west coast CO2 levels • 2007 Goal: reduce N.Am. Carbon sink uncertainty by 50% • Global ocean carbon survey plan/implementation • Must improve Carbon inverse models for source-sink determinations • Must/should explore partnering opportunities with academia for observing, analysis and model interpretation

10. Clouds and Aerosols • Identified as a high priority program need • Need a global aerosol observing system • Satellite (NPOESS/APS) is a necessary component • Integration with in situ observations? • Integration with process understanding? • Translation of observations to climate forcing is largely overlooked in the plan and design of the observing system • NOAA should focus on a select/important aspect of the problem, e.g., clouds maybe an appropriate target • The current plan seems to lack a way to integrate/assimilate local-scale process type efforts into the observing system prior to full-up deployment

11. Budget Update & Strategy • Must push planning out beyond FY06 (challenge) • Proposed program structure (WG asked to react to this) • Climate Observations and Analysis • Climate Forcing • Climate Predictions and Projections • Climate and Ecosystems • Climate Information for Decisions • GAP analysis (probably accurate) • Budgetary support (real or imagined?) • Transitions from research to operations • Regional stakeholder input and usage

12. Final Thoughts • Climate Information System thrusts need investment - there are major gaps in the current activities • Setting priorities in a Climate Information System is an ongoing challenge • NOAA must establish a clear and open process whereby the stakeholders in the set of core products will have input into their specifications and can comment on their utility • No clearly articulated role for private enterprise in the information system