1 / 51

Crop and Feed Outlook for 2012

Explore the outlook for livestock and crops in 2012, analyzing market trends and key projections to help farmers make informed decisions. Look into livestock margins, meat production trends, crop prices, and more.

kimberly
Télécharger la présentation

Crop and Feed Outlook for 2012

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Crop and Feed Outlook for 2012 Farmers Elevator Coop Meeting Sioux Falls, South Dakota Dec. 12, 2011 Chad Hart Assistant Professor/Grain Markets Specialist chart@iastate.edu 515-294-9911

  2. Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC

  3. U.S. Meat Production & Prices Source: USDA

  4. Cattle and Hog Prices Source: CME Group

  5. Hog Crush Margin The Crush Margin is the return after the pig, corn and soybean meal costs. Carcass weight: 200 pounds Pig price: 50% of 5 mth out lean hog futures Corn: 10 bushels per pig Soybean meal: 150 pounds per pig Source: Shane Ellis, ISU Extension

  6. Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC

  7. Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-ERS & USDA-FAS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC

  8. Cattle Crush Margin The Crush Margin is the return after the feeder steer and corn costs. Live weight: 1250 pounds Feeder weight: 750 pounds Corn: 50 bushels per head Source: Shane Ellis, ISU Extension

  9. Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC

  10. Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-ERS & USDA-FAS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC

  11. Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC

  12. Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-ERS & USDA-FAS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC

  13. U.S. Meat Trade Source: USDA

  14. Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC

  15. Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC

  16. U.S. Milk Production & Prices Source: USDA

  17. Class III Milk Prices Source: CME Group

  18. Thoughts for 2012 and Beyond • Continued economic recovery is a major key for livestock prices • Meat demand is recovering • Meat supplies tightened up with smaller herds/flocks • Feed costs have kept margins tight • The combination implies livestock expansion will take awhile • Poultry is currently backing off, Hogs are expanding slightly, and Cattle will not start expanding for a few years

  19. U.S. Corn Supply and Use Source: USDA-WAOB

  20. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use Source: USDA-WAOB

  21. Projected Corn Yields Source: USDA-NASS

  22. Projected Soybean Yields Source: USDA-NASS

  23. U.S. DDG Supply and Use My estimates, so take with a grain (or pound) of salt

  24. U.S. Soybean Meal Supply and Use Source: USDA-WAOB

  25. World Corn Production Source: USDA-WAOB

  26. World Soybean Production Source: USDA-WAOB

  27. Feed Pricing Source: USDA-AMS

  28. Corn vs. Wheat Source: CME Group, 12/9/2011

  29. Corn Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS

  30. Soy Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS

  31. Change of Export Pace

  32. DDG Exports Source: USDA-FAS

  33. Soybean Meal Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS

  34. Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS)

  35. Corn Grind for Ethanol Source: DOE-EIA

  36. Ethanol Margins Source: CARD

  37. Ethanol Blending Advantage

  38. Biodiesel Production Source: DOE-EIA

  39. Biodiesel Margins Source: CARD

  40. Projected 2011 Season-Average Corn Price

  41. Projected 2011 Season-Average Soy Price

  42. Projected 2012 Season-Average Corn Price

  43. Projected 2012 Season-Average Soy Price

  44. Iowa Corn Prices vs. Costs

  45. Iowa Soybean Prices vs. Costs

  46. Principal Crop Area Source: USDA-NASS

  47. States with Room to Grow Number is the difference in planted acres between 2008 and 2011

  48. Iowa Crop Margins

  49. Thoughts for 2012 and Beyond • General economic conditions • Continued worldwide economic recovery is a major key for crop prices • US job recovery, European financial concerns • Supply/demand concerns • Smaller than anticipated U.S. crops, worries about dry conditions • Biofuel growth and energy demand • Corn has the upper hand in the acreage competition • Will supply be able to keep pace with demand? • 2011/12: USDA: Corn $6.40; Soy $11.70 • Futures (as of 12/9/11): Corn $5.73; Soy $11.06 • 2012/13: Futures (as of 12/9/11): Corn $5.36; Soy $10.99

More Related