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TECHNOLOGY NEEDS ASSESSMENT

TECHNOLOGY NEEDS ASSESSMENT. ADAPTING TO CLIMATE CHANGE WATER RESOURCES Wednesday 29 June 2005. IPCC TAR PREDICTIONS.

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TECHNOLOGY NEEDS ASSESSMENT

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  1. TECHNOLOGY NEEDS ASSESSMENT ADAPTING TO CLIMATE CHANGEWATER RESOURCES Wednesday 29 June 2005

  2. IPCC TARPREDICTIONS • The effect of climate change on stream-flow and groundwater recharge varies regionally and between scenarios, largely following projected changes in precipitation. In some parts of the world, the direction of change is consistent between scenarios, although the magnitude is not. In other parts of the world, the direction of change is uncertain. • Water quality is likely generally to be degraded by higher water temperature, but this may be offset regionally by increased flows. Lower flows will enhance degradation of water quality.

  3. IPCC TARPREDICTIONS • Flood magnitude and frequency are likely to increase in most regions, and low flows are likely to decrease in many regions. • Demand for water generally is increasing as a result of population growth and economic development, but it is falling in some countries. Climate change is unlikely to have a large effect on municipal and industrial demands but may substantially affect irrigation withdrawals.

  4. IPCC TARPREDICTIONS • The impact of climate change on water resources depends not only on changes in the volume, timing, and quality of streamflow and recharge but also on system characteristics, changing pressures on the system, how the management of the system evolves, and what adaptations to climate change are implemented. • Non-climatic changes may have a greater impact on water resources than climate change. • Unmanaged systems are likely to be most vulnerable to climate change.

  5. IPCC TARPREDICTIONS • Climate change challenges existing water resources management practices by adding additional uncertainty. Integrated water resources management will enhance the potential for adaptation to change. • Adaptive capacity (specifically, the ability to implement integrated water resources management), however, is distributed very unevenly across the world.

  6. IPCC TARPREDICTIONS • Global average temperature increased by 0.6 ° C over the last century, while sea levels rose by 9 to 20 cm. • The IPCC projects increases in the global average surface temperature by between 1.4°C and 5.8°C and in sea level by between 9 and 88 cm. • Sea level rise in combination with hurricane landfalls presents one of the greatest climate-related hazards in tropical Latin America

  7. STRESSES • Changing land-use and land-management practices (such as the use of agrochemicals) are altering the hydrological system, often leading to deterioration in the resource baseline. • Changing demands generally are increasing pressures on available resources, although per capita demand is falling in some countries. • The objectives and procedures of water management are changing too: In many countries, there is an increasing move toward “sustainable” water management and increasing concern for the needs of the water environment

  8. Guide for Assessing Vulnerability General tools • IPCC Guidelines on the Use of Scenario Data for Climate Impact and Adaptation Assessment • Improves the consistency in the selection, interpretation, and application of scenarios (climate, socioeconomic, and environmental) in climate impact and adaptation assessments. • User support is provided by IPCC Data Distribution Centre, which was established to make freely available a number of global data sets of baseline and scenario information on climatic, environmental, and socioeconomic conditions.

  9. Guide for Assessing Vulnerability General tools IPCC Guidelines on the Use of Scenario Data for Climate Impact and Adaptation Assessment • The guidelines have four main objectives: • introduce and describe the information and analytical tools being provided by the Data Distribution Center, • offer guidance on how to interpret the baseline and scenario data held by the DDC and elsewhere, • highlight and illustrate the key steps and procedures commonly required in applying a baseline and scenario data in impact and adaptation assessment, and • suggest standards for reporting the results.

  10. Guide for Assessing Vulnerability • Climate downscaling techniques • Downscaling is a method for obtaining high-resolution climate or climate change information from relatively coarse-resolution global climate models (GCMs). Typically, GCMs have a resolution of 150-300 km by 150-300 km. Many impacts models require information at scales of 50 km or less, so some method is needed to estimate the smaller-scale information. • Statistical Downscaling • Statistical downscaling first derives statistical relationships between observed small -scale (often station level) variables and larger (GCM) scale variables, using either analogue methods (circulation typing), regression analysis, or neural network methods.

  11. Guide for Assessing Vulnerability Climate downscaling techniques • Statistical DownScaling Model (SDSM) • SDSM is a user-friendly software package designed to implement statistical downscaling methods to produce high-resolution monthly climate information from coarse-resolution climate model (GCM) data. The software also uses weather generator methods to produce multiple realizations (ensembles) of synthetic daily weather sequences. • Dynamical Downscaling • Dynamical downscaling uses a limited-area, high-resolution model (a regional climate model, or RCM) driven by boundary conditions from a GCM to derive smaller-scale information. RCMs generally have a domain area of 106 to 107 km2 and a resolution of 20 to 60 km.

  12. Guide for Assessing Vulnerability MAGICC/SCENGEN • MAGICC/SCENGEN is a user-friendly software package that takes emissions scenarios for greenhouse gases, reactive gases, and sulfur dioxide as input and gives global-mean temperature, sea level rise, and regional climate as output Weather generators • Weather generators are statistical models used to generate realistic daily sequences of weather variables — precipitation, maximum and minimum temperature, humidity, etc • They are often used in conjunction with other techniques.

  13. Guide for Assessing Vulnerability Socioeconomic scenarios • Developing Socioeconomic Scenarios: Downscaling from the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios and Using Proxy Variables/Indicators • Adoption of Existing Socioeconomic Scenarios • Qualitative and Quantitative Scenarios Emphasizing Stakeholder Input

  14. Adaptation to Climate Change • Water management is based on minimization of risk and adaptation to changing circumstances (usuallAy taking the form of altered demands). A wide range of adaptation techniques has been developed and applied in the water sector over decades. • One widely used classification distinguishes between increasing capacity (e.g., building reservoirs or structural flood defenses), changing operating rules for existing structures and systems, managing demand, and changing institutional practices.

  15. Adaptation to Climate Change • The first two often are termed “supply-side” strategies, whereas the latter two are “demand-side.” Over the past few years, there has been a considerable increase in interest in demand-side techniques. • International agencies such as the World Bank (World Bank, 1993) and initiatives such as the Global Water Partnership are promoting new ways of managing and pricing water resources to manage resources more effectively (Kindler, 2000).

  16. Adaptation Tools Water Sector Tools for assessing water resource adaptations to climate change, focusing on regional water supply and demand analysis of managed water systems. • WaterWare • This UNIX based software package is an advanced water resource simulation tool that incorporates numerous models and analyses for easy access to advanced tools of data analysis, simulation modeling, rule -based assessment, and multi-criteria decision support for a broad range of water resources management problems.

  17. Adaptation Tools • Water Evaluation and Planning System (WEAP) • Is a PC based surface and groundwater resource simulation tool, based on water balance accounting principles, which can test alternative sets of conditions of both supply and demand. The user can project changes in water demand, supply, and pollution over a long-term planning horizon to develop adaptive management strategies. • RiverWare • A general UNIX based river and reservoir modeling application with both operational and planning applications. This system offers multiple solution methodologies that include simulation, simulation with rules, and optimization. RiverWare can accommodate a variety of applications, including daily scheduling, operational forecasting, and long-range planning.

  18. Adaptation Tools • Interactive River and Aquifer Simulation (IRAS) • This tool is a PC based surface water resource simulation tool, based on water balance accounting principles that can test alternative sets of conditions of both supply and demand. The river system is represented by a network of nodes and links, with the nodes representing aquifers, gauges, consumption sites, lakes, reservoirs, wetlands, confluences, and diversions. • Aquarius • A computer model depicting the temporal and spatial allocation of water flows among competing traditional and nontraditional water uses in a river basin. The model focuses on optimization of a nonlinear system, where supplies and requested demands are prescribed on the system.

  19. Adaptation Tools • RIBASIM • RIBASIM is a generic model package for simulating the behavior of river basins under various hydrological conditions. The model package is a comprehensive and flexible tool that links the hydrological water inputs at various locations with the specific water users in the basin. RIBASIM enables the user to evaluate a variety of measures related to infrastructure and operational and demand management, and to see the results in terms of water quantity and flow composition. • MIKE BASIN • For addressing water allocation, conjunctive use, reservoir operation, or water quality issues, MIKE BASIN couples the power of ArcView GIS with comprehensive hydrologic modeling to provide basin -scale solutions. The MIKE BASIN philosophy is to keep modeling simple and intuitive, yet provide in-depth insight for planning and management.

  20. Adaptation Tools • SPATIAL TOOLS FOR RIVER BASIN ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS AND MANAGEMENT (STREAM) • STREAM is a spatial hydrological model that allows for assessing hydrological impacts due to changes in climate and socio economic drivers. • STREAM is set up according to a policy analytic framework and ensures a structured approach for an entire river basin including the coastal zone. • STREAM uses hydrological input data, scenarios, adaptive strategies and provides output data on water availability and (salt water) quality. • It integrates within this frame several types of interactions between effects of river management on the coastal zone, land and water uses such as short term deforestation and dam building, and long term impacts of climate change.

  21. LAST WORDS • Scientists have documented climate-change induced changes in some 100 physical and 450 biological processes. • In the Russian Arctic, higher temperatures are melting the permafrost, causing the foundations of five-story apartment buildings to slump. • Worldwide, the rain, is often more intense. Floods and storms are more severe, and heat waves are becoming more extreme. • Rivers freeze later in the winter and melt earlier. Trees flower earlier in spring, insects emerge faster and bird lay eggs sooner. • Glaciers are melting. The global mean sea level is rising.The rate of climate change expected over the next 100 years is unprecedented in human history. http://www.unep.org/themes/climatechange/

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