1. Climate and Energy A Today Problem with a Today Solution: Carbon Removals Peter Read Massey University Centre for Energy Researcjh

2. “Most critically, researchers know relatively little about feedback effects that might enhance – or weaken – the pace and effects of climate change.”. “Key sticking points include the inability of global climate models to [re]produce the amount of sea level rise observed over the past couple of decades and whether ice flows at the bases of glaciers is accelerating or not. How volatile the Antarctic and Greenland glaciers might become in a warmer world is therefore pretty much guesswork” Nature, pp280-281, 8.Feb, 2007 So yes, the science is uncertain Would you get on a plane that had a 1 per cent chance of crashing?

8. Surface Melt on Greenland Melt descending into a moulin, a vertical shaft carrying water to ice sheet base Source: Roger Braithwaite, University of Manchester

9. OK What’s the “today solution”? CARBON RFEMOVALS Biosphere Carbon Stock Management Read, P. and A.Parshotam, 2007. “Holistic Greenhouse Gas Management Strategy (with Reviewers’ Comments and author rejoinders)”. Institute of Policy Studies Working Paper 07/1, VUW //ips.ac.nz/publications/publications/list/7 Read, P., 2007 “Biosphere Management of Carbon Stocks.:Addressing the threat of abrupt climate change in the next few decades.” Forthcoming Editorial Essay in Climatic Change

10. Emissions reductions Kaya Identity: Emissions = Population * per capita income * energy intensity of output *carbon intensity of energy

11. Carbon removals Carbon removed by energy system = Biofuel supply    * carbon/GJ in biofuel * storage efficiency with biofuel †† – fossil fuel supply * carbon / GJ in fossil fuel * (1 – CCS efficiency with fossil fuel)] Where           Biofuel supply =           (demand for energy / energy efficiency – fossil fuel supply – non-fuel renewable supply) †† not necessarily CCS - can be biochar in soil linked to pyrolysis supplies of bio-oil, or plantation stock of biomass raw material. 

12. Comparison of carbon stock management with emission reductions in mitigating the level of CO2 (in ppm) in the atmosphere A SRES-A2 Z SRES-A2 with a transition to zero emissions technologies between 2011 and 2035 F SRES-A2 with a transition to negative emissions technologies over the same period

13. Table 1: Summary of key illustrative data Outputs linear increase to2035 then 1.5% tech progress till 2060 Forestry Lumber 10Gt/yr 14.5Gt/yr C content of Biochar 1.2Gt/yr 1.74Gt/yr Biodiesel 20EJ/yr 29EJ/yr Electricity 23.1EJ/yr 33.5EJ/yr Ethanol 31.4EJ/yr 45.6EJ/yr Stock of C in bio-char soil improvement 15Gt 52Gt Stock of C in standing plantation 120Gt 183Gt Stock of C in avoided deforestation 8Gt 38Gt Stock of C from CO2 of fermentation 2.4Gt 11.5Gt Stock of C from flue gas CCS 9Gt 60Gt Sugar Cane Ethanol 115EJ/yr 167EJ/yr Electricity 85EJ/yr 123EJ/yr Stock of C from CO2 of fermentation 7.2Gt 34.7Gt Stock of C from flue gas CCS 9.2Gt 60.5Gt Switchgrass Ethanol 113EJ/yr 163EJ/yr Electricity(net) 4.8EJ/yr 7.0EJ/yr Stock of C from CO2 of fermentation 8.6Gt 41.6Gt Stock of C from flue gas CCS 13.8Gt 90Gt

14. Aggregate energy supplies Ethanol 259EJ/yr 376EJ/yr Biodiesel 20 EJ/yr 29EJ/yr Electricity 113 EJ/yr 164 EJ/yr Carbon cycle impacts C in oil displaced by bio-fuels 8.38Gt/yr 12.2Gt/yr \C in coal displaced by bio-electricity 4.23Gt/yr 6.14Gt/yr Stock of C left as in situ fossil fuel 164Gt 549Gt Stock of C in standing plantation 120Gt 183Gt Stock of C in avoided deforestation 8Gt 38Gt Stock of C in bio-char soil improvement 15Gt 52Gt Stock of C from CO2 of fermentation 18Gt 88Gt Stock of C from flue gas CCS 32Gt210Gt Total C reduction in atmosphere and proximate sinks (e.g. ocean surface layers)with 357Gt 1120Gt and without flue gas CCS 325Gt 910Gt

15. So: Peak oil and carbon removals go hand in hand ? Not quite:

16. A SRES-A2 D SRES-A2 with sugar cane, switch-grass and forestry land use change activities G SRES-A2 with three land use change activities and 30 tC per ha released through land use change H SRES-A2 with three land use change activities and 90 tC per ha released through land use change I SRES-A2 with three land use change activities and 300 tC per ha released through land use change

17. Biosphere Carbon Stock Management • extract more CO2 from the atmosphere • stock it somewhere safe • As a precautionary strategy • A Do low cost enabling things first (be prepared) • B Do costly things later if need be (enabled by A)

18. As regards 1, there is only one way It involves large scale land improvement to raise its productivity and yield all we need in co-produced food/fibre with fuel (call it “Global Gardening” – if we look after Mother Nature there’s some chance she will look after us ) It should be good news for farmers and landowners

19. As regards 2 • standing forest • Biochar soil improvement + bio-oils • BECS (Bio-Energy with CCS) • More wooden houses and other structures

20. As regards A • 1. Invest in forest plantations to stock carbon and act as a strategic reserve of biomass raw material • (quite useful as timber if the climate change panic goes away) • 2. Invest in a vehicle fleet that is compatible with biofuels • (a useful hedge against ‘peak oil’ – the dear oil age • 3. Invest in biofuel supply systems • maybe 2nd generation cellulosic ethanol • maybe gasification and Fischer Tropsche liquids • maybe pyrolysis with biochar for soil improvement • maybe on-farm gasification linked to ‘herd-homes’ and riparian tree plantations to prevent pollution of our rivers • An investment should not be treated as a cost

21. As regards B Be ready to retrofit CCS onto all large stationary furnaces CCS is a pure cost But it can very easily be made 100 per cent effective – biomass is coal’s best friend !

22. But, mix in 20 per cent wood chips and you get zero emissions From 100 tons fuel, 80 tons fossil results in 16 tons emissions 20 tons wood chips results in negative 16 tons emissions Net emissions - zero

23. So, a today solution to the today problem • Mandate a rising proportion of biofuels • Mandate a large proportion of flexifuel cars in the new car import mix • Mandate importers of 2nd hand cars to adapt them to 10 per cent ethanol • Mandate investment by stationary emitters [both energy, and land based] in a rising area of new plantations • Do not rely on price signals – today’s price is a weak driver for investment decisions