Census & Demographic Analysis for Household Formation –The Luton Experience

1. Census & Demographic Analysis for Household Formation –The Luton Experience Eddie Holmes Research Information Officer Luton Borough Council

2. Overview • Demographic analysis for population & household projections • Projections proposed to be used in the Luton & Central Bedfordshire Housing Market Area SHMA

3. Luton Background • Census, Luton’s population 202,300, 10% growth since 2001, 2012 MYE 205,800 • 74,300 households, with an average HH size of 2.71. Average HH size was 2.59 in 2001 –Reverse of national trend • Mayhew Harper study considered there to be 77,000 households in Luton in 2010 • Evidence of very large households some up to 30 people • Strong population growth in inner areas • LBC considered pre 2011 MYE to be under-estimating population but the gap is closing • High population density and limited space to build

4. Luton Background • High population turn-over, estimated 70% of population either not born or moved to Luton since 2001 Census (Mayhew Harper Associates) • High BME Population, 55% BME at 2011 Census • Large South Asian population • High international migration –’super-diverse’ over 100 languages and dialects spoken • New East European population, over 10,000 at last Census, evidence this is not short term migration • 50% of town not born in UK • 25,000 people in Luton arrived in UK since 2004

5. Luton Population Growth 2001-2011

6. Census Issues • 2001 Census 84% response rate in Luton –under enumeration and under-estimation of population (90% in 2011) • Net migration figure does not reflect experience of town and also Mayhew-Harper study of 2010 • Official figures have struggled to capture demographic change – over-crowding households • School roll projections affected by high number of new migrants such as Polish and African children

7. Forecasting Scenarios • ONS components of change used for migration to be consistent with neighbouring authorities • Some concerns with these data –IPS and under-estimation issues nationally • Luton population starting point 2,000 higher than official population figure • Five Year, eight year and ten year averages of ONS components of change for internal and international migration • Migration rate used for future projections to match ONS methodology • POPGROUP and Derived forecast model used

8. Projection Results

9. Projected Household Formation from CLG 2011 interim rates

10. Issues from HH Projections • Growth in lone parent with dependent children Households • Growth in ‘other households’ • Issue in Luton with multiple occupancy and growth in multi-generational households • How well are the projections capturing this?

11. Wider Issues • Luton has estimated capacity for 6,000 households over next 20 years – all three projection scenarios well above this • Overcrowding: Should HH projections be trend or policy based? • Will migration continue at current levels • Housing benefit issue –Luton is one of the cheapest areas in the region • Duty to cooperate

12. Concluding remarks • Overview of population & household projections within an urban area and highly diverse population • Consultancy work – we have been commissioned to do work in a more rural area with a military population - alternative scenarios based on economic forecasts • Available for forecasting and demographic work • Any questions?

13. Contact • Eddie Holmes • Edward.holmes@luton.gov.uk • Eddie.holmes@lutontradedservices.com • Tel: 01582 54 7093