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Understanding Stock Market Charts: A Simplified Approach for Everyone

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lapis
0 diapositives · 150 Views · Jul 08, 2014

Michael Kahn, a Chartered Market Technician (CMT), explains how to interpret stock market charts and identify trends and patterns. The guide offers practical tips for traders and investors to improve market analysis and make informed investment decisions.

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  1. Stock Market Charts(they are easier than you think)

    Michael Kahn, CMT February 2014
  2. Who am I? Chartered Market Technician (CMT) trained and certified in market analysis Columnist – Barron's Online Newsletter Editor – Quick Takes Pro Former charting software designer …and beaten up enough by the markets
  3. What do I do? Help investors assess risk and reward. no crystal ball no tea leaves no chicken entrails
  4. Agenda Just the basics When the market is moving - trend When the market is resting - pattern Other important stuff – volume, sentiment, time
  5. Possible Goals Get the feel for the market (sentiment, momentum) What does the market say? Bullish? Manic? Does the chart agree with the fundamentals? Or at least not disagree? Intangibles The Fed Gurus “Risk on”
  6. Possible Goals What part of the market is best? (relatives) Size big or small Sectors Defensive or aggressive? Traditional leaders or not? Bonds? Gold? Maybe it is time to diversify asset classes
  7. Technical analysis is a windsock, not a crystal ball. - Carl Swenlin
  8. People People tend to do similar things when faced with similar situations. People’s behavior is the basis for chart patterns. The chart is the chart is the chart. (no analyst guesses and gov’t revisions)
  9. What is Fundamental Analysis? A method of evaluating a security that entails attempting to measure its intrinsic value by examining related economic, financial and other qualitative and quantitative factors. -- from the CFA Institute website (and Investopedia)
  10. What is Technical Analysis? A method of evaluating securities by analyzing statistics generated by market activity. -- from the Market Technicians Association website
  11. What do they have in common? Neither one can handle conditions that cause the market to be restricted, manipulated and otherwise not free. Fraud Mergers Quantitative Easing
  12. Dated humor Save us Obi Ben Bernanke (sorry Janet)
  13. How I cope I will make you a chart you cannot refuse The Godfather of Technical Analysis
  14. Price Rules! Price - The stuff you put in the bank In price, there is knowledge. Alan Shaw, CMT, Chief Technical Analyst. Smith Barney, retired Ralph Acampora, CMT, Chief Technical Analyst, Prudential Securities, retired
  15. Volume is next Volume – How much money is moving In volume, there is truth. Dennis Jarrett, Jarrett Research
  16. Momentum Momentum – How fast it got there Which speed is profitable and most sustainable?
  17. Structure (Patterns) Structure – Trends and Patterns
  18. Sentiment (Fear and Greed) Sentiment I feel good! Whatever She’s gonna eat us! Tesla Oct 2013 Electronic Arts Jul 2012
  19. We got game! Price Volume Momentum Structure Sentiment
  20. Looks like a cheaper place to buy How many times have you thought, “My stock is on sale, let’s buy!”
  21. Looks like a cheaper place to buy Same price, different trend……could the same be on tap for 2014?
  22. The trend said it all It works in both directions.
  23. What does the market have to say?
  24. The trend said it all It works in long-term time frames at major turning points, too.
  25. Does something look right here? The Big Picture a few years ago.
  26. And today… Log scales
  27. Leadership Changing? Barron’s Online November
  28. Leadership Changing again?
  29. Leadership
  30. Leadership
  31. Sentiment It’s the end of the world as we know it. – R.E.M.
  32. Sentiment Are you the last to be invited to the party? social media stocks last year? biotech now? Is your hair stylist giving you tips? Are they ridiculing the bearish commentators? Gold is going to $800!!!!!! Or for early 2009, were doom and gloom forever?
  33. Quiz Time Question - What does it mean when the neighborhood tavern has CNBC on the television and not ESPN?
  34. Quiz Time Question - What does it mean when the neighborhood tavern has CNBC on the television and not ESPN? Answer - the market is not at a bottom
  35. Quiz Time Question - What does it mean when the banks are offering new interest only mortgages?
  36. Quiz Time Question - What does it mean when the banks are offering new interest only mortgages? Answer – the real estate market is not at a bottom……(sound familiar?)
  37. Quiz Time Question - What does it mean when there are whole aisles in the supermarket dedicated to the Atkins diet?
  38. Quiz Time Question - What does it mean when there are whole aisles in the supermarket dedicated to the Atkins diet? Answer – time to buy bread and cereal stocks
  39. Quiz Time Question - What does it mean when everyone is talking about the Great Depression and Financial Armageddon?
  40. Quiz Time Question - What does it mean when everyone is talking about the Great Depression and Financial Armageddon? Answer – It’s March 2009! The AAII survey showed 70.27% bears on March 5. Unprecedented. And it was not the only one.
  41. Quiz Time Question – What does it mean when, after a five-year bull market, mutual fund company advertisements show regular people saying “we’ve got to get back into the market?”
  42. Quiz Time Question – What does it mean when, after a five-year bull market, mutual fund company advertisements show regular people saying “we’ve got to get back into the market? Somebody is about to get burned again.
  43. Up is good, down is bad. Nice long-term base
  44. What do you see?
  45. How about this?
  46. or this?
  47. There was no need to lose it all.
  48. There was no need to lose it all. real trading!
  49. If you don’t see anything, it’s not there.
  50. If you don’t see anything, it’s not there. Get it?
  51. Up is good, down is bad.
  52. Up is good, down is bad.
  53. Up is good, down is bad.
  54. The Real World Right Now
  55. The Real World Right Now Double top, bear reversal

  56. Up is good,Down is Bad

  57. The real reason we do this:To make the buy, sell or hold decision.Not to predict the future
  58. The Big Question Does market analysis work anymore? Yes! (mostly)
  59. The Real World Right Now Profitable Trading. Written up on the breakout. Failed this week
  60. The Real World Right Now Does Mikey like it?
  61. The Real World Right Now Does Mikey like it?
  62. The Real World Right Now Does Mikey like it?
  63. The Real World Right Now Does Mikey like it?
  64. The Real World Right Now
  65. The Real World Right Now Mmmm, dividends
  66. The Real World Right Now
  67. End with some laughs An ode to Quantitative Easing
  68. Ben Lightyear. QE to infinity and beyond!
  69. Have another shot of Bernanke juice.
  70. Ben Bernanke as a child
  71. Quick Takes Prowww.QuickTakesPro.com Getting Technical www.Barrons.com Twitter @mnkahn Books: Beginner’s Guide to Charting Financial Markets Copies available right here Technical Analysis: Plain and Simple – 3nd edition Real World Technical Analysis
  72. Free Chart of the Day No obligation………No spam………. Sign up at the website www.QuickTakesPro.com Conference Special on full newsletter Sign up at the website www.QuickTakesPro.com $10 for the first month (regular price thereafter) No further obligation, cancel any time Twitter @mnkahn