Global Change and Its Impact on Tourism

1. Global Change and Its Impact on Tourism N.G. SunaraSamsudeen LL.B, LL.M, Pgd. in Human Rights Law (New South Wales) Pgd. in Peace Research (Oslo), UNITAR Fellow (Geneva), Hague Academy Fellow(Hague), Diploma in International Relations (Specialization in Public International Law inc. International Environmental Law) (Attorney-At-Law, Notary, Company Secretary, Commissioner of Oaths) Senior Programme Officer Equal Access toJustıce Project United Nations Development Programme Sri Lanka I’

3. Areas of Discussion • What are implications of global change that are to the negative effect of industry of tourism and to what extent? • What are measures and steps taken prevent and to what extent? • What are the measures have taken to the positive effect and how far thus those have been resulted positively? • What are the gaps and how far those gaps could be addressed and through what adaptation could it result to the positive effects globally and regionally?

4. Discussed Global Changes • Scientist Arthur C. Clarks perditions • Climate Change; Weather change; Elnino, Lanino; Heat & Colder - human made & natural • Sea level rise -human made & natural • Tsunami-natural • Pollution

5. Models –measuring tools • Changed and extended version of the Hamburg Tourism Model (HTM). • Hamilton et al., 2005a,b study (total holiday demand – domestic and international) • Bigano et al.—Tourism simulation study on economic cost • Tourism version –climate index on Human comfort

6. Main impacts on tourism as global industry • Firstly physical natural environment and • Secondly on the income generated to the national economy Why global change is an impact on tourism? • It is being the dependent industry • Human behavior – attractiveness, change of patterns Natural resources influences and wider impact on its development and sustainability due to change of natural environment

7. Why climate is an important factor or greater impact? • Destination of choice • climate change would shift patterns of tourism towards higher altitudes and latitudes, warmer and colder • Internationally – larger impact • Domestically – very little impact • Increases expenditures • Food & Security , Health risks • Impact on population and economic growth

8. AnalysisThe basis for impact assessments are climate models, in particular the IPCC scenarios and regional downscaled model variations.

9. Tourist projections • "Climate change would drive tourists towards the poles and, for those not interested in sea and sand, up the mountains.“(UNWTO data) • Asia will take the lead

10. Sea level rise • Coral reefs • Natural coast or beaches • Vanishing of Islands

12. Challenges to be addressed • Protection of environment • Increase attractiveness; wild life, biodiversity • Facilities; cultural attractiveness, adventurous • health risks • Water conservation • Organic farming • Nature friendly tourism • Mitigating bottlenecks – Policies, Law reforms, structural adjustment, Action plans and adapterbilities

13. Tea

14. Gaps • More towards small islands, higher altitudes and latitudes • Assess through number of tourists • Bottle neck and red tapes-Economic impacts, other difficulties laws and regulations; immigration , cost effectiveness, distance ,purpose of visit • Decision making, Lack of implementation, policies and adaptations • Structural changes, policies and adaptations, statutory provisions

16. Own threats • UN’s World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) 2008 Report “Our report underscores the threats and the opportunities. It confirms the fact that tourism contributes some 5% of greenhouse gasses – in line with its global impact and way below its development contribution in poor countries. It identifies institutional change directions for transport, accommodation and all tourism service providers, as well as the users – business and leisure.” (UNWTO Assistant Secretary-General Professor Geoffrey Lipman)

17. Best Practices • Lipman reaffirmed UNWTO’s Davos Declaration Process of 2007, which undertakes to support the UN’s Bali Roadmap that provides a broad direction for all tourism stakeholders. “Now it’s all about implementation,” also stated that “We will increase our collaboration within the UN family and our efforts to bring the public and private sector’s full capacity to bear on this issue. Innovation is the big opportunity.“In this regard, UNWTO is pleased to announce a collaborative arrangement with ICAO, whereby UNWTO will promote the application of the new ICAO Carbon Emissions Calculator, a tool for calculating CO2 emissions from air travel. The Calculator is unbiased, transparent and was vetted by the international aviation community.”

18. Continued • “We are confident of our sector’s ability to play its part in the establishment of an effective and comprehensive global climate response network. We have been working in close collaboration with UNEP and WMO for many years to analyze the impacts, the stress points and the lines for an effective response in both the long and the immediate term.“We also know that climate change cannot be addressed without losing sight of other humanitarian and development priorities, particularly tourism’s overall contribution to economic growth and to the UN Millennium Development Goals. We are making all efforts to ensure that tourism will manage to reduce its contribution to GHG emissions at a faster rate than the growth rate of international and domestic tourist movements, thus continuing to play a key role in the fight against poverty and serve as a tool for developing countries’ economic and social growth.”( UNWTO’s Secretary-General- Francesco Frangialli)

19. International measures and attempts • UN Supported-The intergovernmental panel on climate change 2007 – see-a level rice that may submerge small islands • UN study on climate change on the development prospects of the least developed countries and small island developing states, UNOHRLLS,2009 • United Nations framework Convention on Climate Change, UNFCCC,2007 • Millennium development goals (UNMDGs) in mitigating and protection of environment

20. Implementations • ICAO is currently in the process of developing a methodology for its Carbon Calculator. intending that the calculator should be used as the primary tool for calculating aviation emissions for use in the UN’s Climate Neutral Initiative. It will also be a source of data for use in carbon offset programs. Source: UNWTO

21. Challenges to be addressed • Long term policy implementations ( long term climate projections- green house gas, carbon neutrality etc.) • Mitigation of policies and measures that effect any environmental degradation • Sustainable mechanism in mitigating effects • Adaptability and strategies • Individual and common efforts-national adaptation and initiatives, action plans • Develop biases • Ratifications, law enactments for Enabling statuses countries following dualistic approach (non binding nature), reservations - legal bottlenecks – Sınharasa SC Sri Lanka case • International negotiations (Developed countries up to their responsibilities when it is not affect equally – watch dog, raise a voice • Resources

22. References • The UNWTO-UNEP report 2008 on Climate Change and Tourism: Responding to Global Challenges and the seminar report of UNEP, the Oxford University and UNWTO on Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation in the Tourism Sector: Frameworks, Tools and Practices provide a pool of mitigation measures for a wide-range of tourism stakeholders. • Andrea Bigano & Jacqueline M. Hamilton & Richard S.J. Tol, 2006. "The Impact of Climate Change on Domestic and International Tourism: A Simulation Study," SSRN, Working Papers 2006.86, pp. 26-49 FondazioneEniEnricoMattei. : File URL: http://www.fnu.zmaw.de/fileadmin/fnu-files/publication/working-papers/htm12wp.pdf accessed 11 February, 2012 • Bigano et al, Tourism simulation study, IAJ, Vol. 7, Iss. 1, 2007 • The study on climate change on the development prospects of the least developed countries and small island developing states, UNOHRLLS,2009 • Climate Change: Impacts, vulnerabılıtıes and adaption in developing countries, United Nations framework Convention on Climate Change, UNFCCC, 2007

23. Thankyou