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Week 6: Impacts on Great Power Politics Lecture 15: The Chinese Response to 911

Week 6: Impacts on Great Power Politics Lecture 15: The Chinese Response to 911. 10 th March 2003 (Monday). Announcements on Guest Speakers. Israel Consul General Eli Avidar The Israeli-Palestinian Issue Lecture 19: 19 th March 2003 (Wednesday) Welcome to sign up for lunch afterwards

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Week 6: Impacts on Great Power Politics Lecture 15: The Chinese Response to 911

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  1. Week 6: Impacts on Great Power PoliticsLecture 15: The Chinese Response to 911 10th March 2003 (Monday)

  2. Announcements on Guest Speakers • Israel Consul General Eli Avidar • The Israeli-Palestinian Issue • Lecture 19: 19th March 2003 (Wednesday) • Welcome to sign up for lunch afterwards • Indian Consul Goel • The “Mini Cold War” in the Subcontinent • Lecture 25: 31st March 2003 (Monday) • Welcome to sign up for lunch afterwards

  3. Structure of Lecture 15: • Introduction to “Great Power Politics” • China in the Pre-911 World Order: • The Recent Sino-American Relations • Immediate Chinese Response at 911: • The Contradictory Response between the Chinese Government and the Chinese Society • Secondary Chinese Response after 911: • Communist China’s Strategy • Conclusion: • What if Mao or Deng were alive today…

  4. PART IIntroduction to “Great Power Politics”

  5. Concept of “Composite National Capability” • A Mathematical Formula of: • Political Power (international influence) • Military Power (army, science) • Economic Power (market, labor, resources) • Potential Power (land, population) • Cultural Power (sports, music, literature, Nobel Prize, crime rate…) • China = 7?! • Perceptive Powers • China = 2?!

  6. “Great Power”Refresh on the “1-5” Status Quo • The Post-Cold War Order: Multi-polarity? • The Big One: USA • The Next Five: • Russia • China • Britain • European Union (France-Germany Axis) • Japan

  7. Great Power Relationships • 1. Open Confrontation • WWII: Germany Vs Britain • 2. Balance of Power • Cold War: USA Vs USSR • 3. Bandwagon Effect • Post-Cold War: USA > Britain

  8. PART IIChina and USA in the Pre-911 World Order

  9. Sino-American Relationship (1970s-90s) • 1972: Shanghai Communique • 1978: Established Diplomatic Relations • Sino-American Honeymoon • 1989: Tiananmen Incident • Sino-American Fluctuations

  10. Rise of Anti-Americanism • “China Can Say No”? • American as the Future Chinese Enemy • Premier Zhu Rongji: • “Can’t be too good, can’t be too bad”…America as Idol in the Past

  11. Belgrade Embassy Bombing (1999) • NATO intervention in the Kosovo Civil War • Chinese Embassy in Belgrade bombed “accidentally” by the NATO army • Anti-American Demonstrations in Beijing • Destruction of the Beijing American Embassy

  12. China and USA Since George W Bush (2000) • Election of President George W Bush Vs Al Gore • The “Mock Election” in American Embassy in Beijing • US Spy Plane Crushing Incident (2001) • Wang Wei: the “Real Martyr” • The “New Cold War” of George W Bush

  13. PART III Immediate Chinese Response at 911:The Bipolarity

  14. The American Invitation • Jiang-Bush Phone Summit (14th Sept 2001) • Anti-Terror Coalition – Band C • “Cooperation” • No Opposition • Spiritual Support • Share of Intelligence Service • Green Light to Pakistan • Sino-Pakistani Alliance • Secret Visit of General Pervez Musharraf in Beijing

  15. Official Response • “The attacks have not only brought about a disaster to the American people, but also a challenge to the sincere desire for peace of the world people. The Chinese people, like the Americans, strongly condemn the appalling terrorist attacks. • “China is ready to strengthen dialogue and cooperation with the United States and the international community in the joint efforts in combating all sorts of terrorist violence.” – President Jiang Zemin (Sept 14 2001)

  16. Social Uproar & Excitement • People Daily’s “Strong Country Forum” • “Well Done!” • Romanticization of Osama Bin Laden • The Che Guevera T-shirt • The Unconventional TV Program • King Kong • The Reporters Clapping Incident

  17. The Humanitarian Argument • The “Middle Line” against Pro- or Anti-Americanism • “Tonight, We are Americans” by 491 Liberal Scholars • Fight back against the Anti-Americanists on Websites • Humanitarianism: • How big is its market? •  The Dangerous Alienation between Government and the Masses

  18. PART IV Communist China’s Strategy after 911: Taking Advantage of 911

  19. Anti-Terrorism in China • East Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM) • Xinjiang Muslims (Uighurs): Separatism • “Republic of East Turkestan” (1944-1946) • Comparison with the Independence Movements of Taiwan and Tibet • “Religious Terrorism” • Falun Gong???

  20. Anti-Terrorist Attempts of China Before 911 • Shanghai Cooperation Organization • 1996 found by China • Enlarged membership at April 2001: China, Russia, the Central Asian Republics • Common Enemy: Terrorism by Radical Muslims • CICA (Conference on Interaction andConfidence Building Measures in Asia) • 2001 1st meeting, organized by Kazakhstan • Common Enemy: Terrorism of Radical Muslims

  21. Convergence of Anti-Terrorisms • East Turkestan became an American Enemy, unconsciously • http://www.uygur.org/ • America Can Provide: • Moral backing of the Chinese Anti-terrorist methods, with force • The Influence over Turkey to Restraint from Supporting the East Turkestan Movement • A List of “Foreign Terrorist Organizations” by US Office of Counterterrorism (Aug 2002)

  22. Shift of American Attention • China after 911: • From a Potential “Rogue State” to an American Ally • Priority: not to provoke America against China again • No veto against America’s Iraqi Campaign

  23. China and the Theories of Limiting Sovereignty • Stage 1: Imperialism (before WWII) • Sovereignty Limited By: the Level of Civilization • China’s Worry: Not Yet Modernized; Might be Colonized by Imperial Powers (e.g. Britain, France) • Stage 2: Cold War (1945-1991) • Sovereignty Limited By: Ideology • China’s Worry: Ideological Conflict with the Leader of the Communist Bloc; Might be Subverted by the USSR

  24. China and the Theories of Limiting Sovereignty (II) • Stage 3: Post-Cold War (1991-2001) • Sovereignty Limited By: “Human Rights” • China’s Worry: its Human Rights Record to be Criticized; Might be Contained by the USA • Stage 4: Post-911 (2001- ) • Sovereignty Limited By: “Anti-terrorism” (the Bush Doctrine) • China – No Worries at All!

  25. Assigned Readings • Main Text: Tina Chen and David Churcill: “Neoliberal Civilization, the War on Terrorism, and the Case of China.” • Chinese Response to 911. Ed. Simon Shen. Hong Kong: Hong Kong University Press, (exp.) late 2003.

  26. Supplementary Readings • Xinhua Agency: “Sept11 Attacks Render Japan to Expand Militarily.”People’s Daily Forum. 8th Sept 2002. • http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/200209/08/eng20020908_102842.shtml • A Sampling of Asian Comment on the 9/11 Attacks and Their Aftermath (UCLA) • http://international.ucla.edu/asia/article.asp?parentid=2274

  27. PART V: Conclusion –What if Mao or Deng were Alive Today…

  28. Maoism at its Peak • US Imperialism are “Paper Tigers” • Worldwide Revolution against American Imperialism • Supported Anti-Imperialist Campaigns in North Korea, North Vietnam, Indonesia, Cuba, Nepal, Congo, Tanzania, Zambia… • Beijing as the Capital of Worldwide Revolution • Ping-pong Diplomacy (1971) • USA as China’s “good old friend”

  29. Deng Xiaoping Thought on Diplomacy after Tiananmen (1989) • 24-word Chinese motto: “lengjing guancha, shouzhu shendi, chenzhuo yingfu, taoguang yanghui, shinyu shouzhuo, juebu dangtou”(冷靜觀察，守住陣腳，沈著應付，韜光養晦，善於守拙，絕不當頭) • Calmly observe, stabilize the basis, coolly respond, conceal the capacities, use to be inferior, never take initiatives

  30. Deng Xiaoping Theory in the 911 Incident • Stabilize the Basis: • Against Local Terrorism in Xinjiang • Conceal the Capabilities: • Hide all its Potentials to Oppose against American Expansion after 911 • Never Take the Lead: • France and Germany took the lead against the American Invasion against Iraq

  31. Modification of Dengism by Jiang Zemin • lengjing guancha, shenzhuoyingdui, bawojiyu, yinshilidao (冷靜觀察，沉著應對，把握机遇，因勢利導) • Calmly observe, stabilize the basis • Take the opportunity, make use of the situation to achieve one’s goal • Chinese Diplomacy: Realistic, No More Romance

  32. Sino-American Honeymoon? • The 911 Interlude to China Entry into WTO • APEC meeting at Shanghai • 4 Jiang-Bush Summits • …

  33. Possible Causes of the Chinese U-turn in the Future? • American U-turn from Multilateralism to Unilateralism • Axis of Evil (Jan 2002): Why North Korea? • The Iraqi Crisis: Bypass of United Nations • American Allies in Asia after 911: Encirclement of China? • South Korea, Japan, Central Asian Republics, India, Philippines… • Increased Presence in Central Asia and Pakistan • Stronger Internal Pressure after the Leadership Change

  34. ~~The End~~ Thank you for attending

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