1. Statistical Downscaling Cindy Bruyère NCAR Earth System Laboratory National Center for Atmospheric Research NCAR is Sponsored by NSF and this work is partially supported by the Willis Research Network and the Research Program to Secure Energy for America Bruyere Statistical Downscaling RPSEA 0310

2. Statistical Downscaling • Look at at Genesis Potential • Mainly focusing on NNRP • CCSM (A2 and A1B scenarios) • NRCM Bruyere Statistical Downscaling RPSEA 0310

3. Genesis Potential Index Emanuel and Nolan (2004) Camargo (2007) Bruyere Statistical Downscaling RPSEA 0310

4. cor=0.91 Annual Max GP No Storms GP in NNRP Model Bruyere Statistical Downscaling RPSEA 0310

5. GP distribution in NNRP Bruyere Statistical Downscaling RPSEA 0310

6. NA basin gulf w-dev e-dev dev GP - A Different Approach Bruyere Statistical Downscaling RPSEA 0310

7. GP in MDR - NNRP vs CCSM GP from CCSM (A2) Bruyere Statistical Downscaling RPSEA 0310

8. NNRP Meridional Avg of GP (15-60W) Bruyere Statistical Downscaling RPSEA 0310

9. NNRP CCSM - A2 Meridional Avg of GP (15-60W) Bruyere Statistical Downscaling RPSEA 0310

10. Bruyere Statistical Downscaling RPSEA 0310

11. Conclusions • Looking at basin wide annual max or ASO average GP has little value • GP (annual max and ASO average) in development region is a better measure of storm development in basin • GP in Gulf has a poor correlation between storms that develop or move through the Gulf area • GP in CCSM and NRCM runs indicate an increase in GP in the lower latitudes • More work is needed to develop a better index in the Gulf Bruyere Statistical Downscaling RPSEA 0310