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Epidemics

Epidemics. Pedro R. Andrade Gilberto Camara São José dos Campos, 2016. Epidemic. “In epidemiology, an epidemic occurs when new cases of a certain disease, in a given human population, and during a given period, substantially exceed what is expected based on recent experience.”.

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Epidemics

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  1. Epidemics Pedro R. Andrade Gilberto Camara São José dos Campos, 2016

  2. Epidemic “In epidemiology, an epidemic occurs when new cases of a certain disease, in a given human population, and during a given period, substantially exceed what is expected based on recent experience.”

  3. Source: Viboud and Chowell (NIH)

  4. Source: Viboud and Chowell (NIH)

  5. Source: Viboud and Chowell (NIH)

  6. Epidemic dynamics (SIR model)

  7. Epidemic dynamics (SIR model) Stocks: susceptible, infected, and recovered Initial stocks: susceptible = 9998, infected = 2 dt = 1 week Run time = 30 weeks Duration of an infection: 2 weeks Each infected comes into contact 6 with other people 25% of the contacts are enough to cause infection

  8. Epidemic dynamics (SIR model) Stocks: susceptible, infected, and recovered Initial stocks: susceptible = 9998, infected = 2 dt = 1 week Run time = 30 weeks Duration of an infection: 2 weeks Each infected comes into contact 6 with other people (but can only infect the susceptible ones) 25% of the contacts are enough to cause infection

  9. Some scenarios Duration of the infection: 2, 4, 8 weeks Contacts that cause infection: 50%, 25%, 12.5% If the number of contacts is cut by half when the infections reach 2000 or 1000 due to an educational campaign.

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