Basics

1. Basics Science

2. Science • Initial Observation/Question of Interest • Hypothesis (little “t” theory) • Experimental Observation (measurements) • Results/Analysis • Conclusions/New Questions of Interest • Replication • Repetition • Other Results BIG “T” THEORY

3. Observations • Can initially be uniform but eventually must be systematic • Audubon Christmas bird count • m2, transects, dbh, etc. • Otherwise Anecdotal with high potential for bias

4. Hypotheses • Little “t” theory • This is what I think is happening • Can be several hypotheses working together in the same experiment/observations • Null hypothesis is related to statistics, but serves an important function: • Any Hypothesis, theory or Theory must be able to be disproved to be scientific • You can only disprove, not (ultimately) prove a hypothesis “No amount of experimentation can prove me right, a single experiment can prove me wrong…” Einstein

5. Experimental Observations • Make observations and/or measurements that address your hypothesis and question of interest • Three Main Types of Experiment (for us) • Control Treatment Replicate (CTR) • Retrospective • Natural Experiment • Typical Assumptions • Measuring something pertinent to your hypothesis • Measuring correctly

6. Results/Analysis • Replicable • Prove or disprove (or indicate) hypothesis • In Reconstructing the Past, Several Issues: • Coincidence of Indicators Important • No Direct Observation • Record Erasure • Assumptions • Proxy Variables/Models • New Questions Generated • Bias an Issue, Objectivity a Goal • What Questions Asked • How Addressed • Hopefully, the Scientific Process is not (too) Biased

7. Theory • Many questions answered similarly: Theory • Theory => Law • Law of Gravity • Law of Evolution • Relativity • Law of Osmosis • Testing Hypothesis to generate initial facts: Deduction • Using multiple tested outcomes to generate Theory: Induction

8. IN SCIENCE, ALL OF THE ABOVE ARE OPEN TO CHALLENGE