1. General ESPON meeting Espoo, 14-15 november, 2006 TEQUILA SIP ESPON 3.2 Interactive Simulation Package for Territorial Impact Assessment Roberto Camagni (Politecnico di Milano) Prof. Roberto Camagni – Politecnico di Milano

2. The team DIG - Department of Management, Economics and Industrial Engineering – Politecnico di Milano Roberto CAMAGNI (direction and concept) DIG – Politecnico Lidia DIAPPI (package supervision) DIAP-Politecnico Paola BOLCHI (SIP package construction) DIAP-Politecnico Chiara TRAVISI (data base and calibration) DIG - Politecnico Paolo SALZANI (data base and simulation) DIG - Politecnico Prof. Roberto Camagni – Politecnico di Milano

3. The TIA / Territorial Cohesion link An operational definition of Territorial Cohesion Territorial dimensions and assessment criteria The General Assessment Model: the TEQUILA Model The Territorial Assessment Model: TIM TEQUILA SIP: Interactive Simulation Package Application to TENs policies The interactive package Mapping the results Content Prof. Roberto Camagni – Politecnico di Milano

4. A TIA methodology has necessarily to start by linking up with a sound theoretical and operational definition of Territorial Cohesion “Territorial cohesion translates the goal of sustainable and balanced development assigned to the Union into territorial terms” (Rotterdam Declaration, Dutch Presidency, 2004) For us: Territorial cohesion may be seen as the territorial dimension of sustainability (beyond the technological, the behavioural and the diplomatic dimensions of sustainability) (Camagni, 2004) 1. The TIA / Territorial Cohesion link Prof. Roberto Camagni – Politecnico di Milano

5. The 3 main components of territorial cohesion: * Territorial Efficiency: resource-efficiency with respect to energy, land and natural resources; competitiveness and attractiveness of the local territory; internal and external accessibility * Territorial Quality: the quality of the living and working environment; comparable living standards across territories; similar access to services of general interest and to knowledge * Territorial Identity: presence of “social capital”; landscape and cultural heritage; capability of developing shared visions of the future; creativity; productive “vocations” and competitive advantage of each territory 2. An operational definition of Territorial Cohesion Prof. Roberto Camagni – Politecnico di Milano

6. 2. An operational definition of Territorial Cohesion Prof. Roberto Camagni – Politecnico di Milano

7. Quality of life and working conditions; access to services of general interest Conservation of natural resources Conservation and creative Conservation of water resources management of natural landscape Sustainable transport: s hare of Quality of services Integrated and balanced public transport and reduction of territori al system congestion on the network Territorial quality Multiethnic solidarity and Reduction of integration environmental risks Efficient and polycentric Reduction of poverty urban system and exclusion Soc Env Compact city form; reduction of sprawl Co - operation between city and countryside Accessibility to infrastructure 3. Territorial dimensions and assessment criteria Complementarity Territorial Territorial of knowledge and Ec identity efficiency Know - how Resource - efficiency Conservation and creative Economic Competitiveness, attractiveness management of cultural resources performance Social capital; shared visions Inter - regional integration Financial costs and benefits of policies Employment performance Strengthening of gateway cities Accessibility to telecommunication Quality of transport services s ervices and t o knowledge Prof. Roberto Camagni – Politecnico di Milano

8. T erritorial E fficiency QU ality I dentity L ayered the TEQUILA Model A ssessment Model (Camagni, 2006) 4. The General Assessment model: the TEQUILA Model Prof. Roberto Camagni – Politecnico di Milano

9. TEQUILA is a Multicriteria Model for the Territorial Impact Assessment of EU policies 2. The 3 components of the T.C. concept and their sub-components become the criteria in the Assessment Model 3. The weights of the 3 criteria and sub-criteria are flexible (sensitivity of results with respect to change in weights is tested interactively) 4. The general impact of EU policies on each criterion is defined using ad hoc studies, in both qualitative and quantitative ways 5. A method for combining quali-quantitative impact indicators inside the multi-criteria analysis is supplied 4. The General Assessment model: the TEQUILA Model Prof. Roberto Camagni – Politecnico di Milano

10. Alternative scaling of quantitative assessments (e.g.) a) “local scaling” b) “ad hoc scaling” +5 0 +3 +2 180 250 180 250 Impact on regional employment Impact on regional employment 4. The General Assessment model: the TEQUILA Model Qualitative impact scores are attributed on a +5 to -5 scale: 5= very high advantage for all; -5= very high disadvantage for all 4= high advantage for all; -4= high disadvantage for all 3= high advantage for some, medium adv. for all; -3= high dis. for some, medium dis. for all 2= medium advantage; -2= medium disadvantage 1= low advantage; -1= low disadvantage 0= nil impact; Prof. Roberto Camagni – Politecnico di Milano

11. The 2 layers 1st layer:General Assessment of the impact of EU policies on the overall European territory: to be intended as a “potential impact” on an abstract territory (PIM) 2nd layer:“Territorial Assessment” on each region. Necessary as: the intensity of the policy application may be different on different regions the relevance of the different “criteria” is likely to be different for different regions, according to their utility function the vulnerability and the receptivity of the different regions to similar “potential” impacts is likely to be different a region may not be subject to a specific policy 4. The General Assessment model Prof. Roberto Camagni – Politecnico di Milano

12. TIMr = Σcθc . (PIMc . PIr ) . Sr,c . PAr TIM = territorial impact c = criterion of the multi-criteria method r = region θc= weight of the c criterion PIM = potential impact of policy (abstract) PI = policy intensity (in region r) Sr,c = sensitivity of region r to criterion c PA = policy applicability (a 0/1 variable) Sr,c = Dr,c . Vr,c Dr,c = desirability of criterion c for region r (territorial “utility function”) Vr,c = vulnerability of region c to impact PIMc (receptivity for positive impacts): a vector of regional characteristics 5. The Territorial Assessment Model: TIM Prof. Roberto Camagni – Politecnico di Milano

13. The TEQUILA model is operated through an interactive simulation device, specifically built by the research team for Espon: TEQUILA SIP interactive easy to build and operate working on different layers (particularly: Europe 29 and NUTS 3) As a pioneering and prototype experiment, TEQUILA SIP is applied to the assessment of the Territorial Impact of EU transport policy (TEN-TINA), using existing quantitative ESPON assessments and data base Territorial level : NUTS 3 (1329 regions) Collaboration of ESPON teams in data supply is gratefully acknowledged 6. TEQUILA SIP: an Interactive Simulation Package Prof. Roberto Camagni – Politecnico di Milano

14. 7. Application to TENs policies Prof. Roberto Camagni – Politecnico di Milano

15. 7. Application to TENs policies : Potential Impact Prof. Roberto Camagni – Politecnico di Milano

16. 7. Application to TENs policies : Sensitivity Prof. Roberto Camagni – Politecnico di Milano

17. 8. The interactive package Prof. Roberto Camagni – Politecnico di Milano

18. 8. The interactive package Prof. Roberto Camagni – Politecnico di Milano

19. 8. The interactive package: Impact on Efficiency Prof. Roberto Camagni – Politecnico di Milano

20. 8. The interactive package: Potential Impact Prof. Roberto Camagni – Politecnico di Milano

21. 9. Mapping results: impact on Territorial Efficiency Mean Value = 2.1773 Politecnico di Milano – TEQUILA SIP – June 2006 Prof. Roberto Camagni – Politecnico di Milano

22. 9. Mapping results: impact on Territorial Quality Mean Value = -1.19 Politecnico di Milano – TEQUILA SIP – June 2006 Prof. Roberto Camagni – Politecnico di Milano

23. 9. Mapping results: impact on Territorial Identity Mean Value = 0.714 Politecnico di Milano – TEQUILA SIP – June 2006 Prof. Roberto Camagni – Politecnico di Milano

24. 8. Mapping results: General Impact (a) Mean Value = 0.5492 Politecnico di Milano – TEQUILA SIP – June 2006 Prof. Roberto Camagni – Politecnico di Milano

25. 8. Mapping results: General Impact (b) Mean Values = 0.5173 Politecnico di Milano – TEQUILA SIP – June 2006 Prof. Roberto Camagni – Politecnico di Milano

26. Thanks for your attention! Roberto CamagniDepartment of Management, Economics and Industrial EngineeringPolitecnico di MilanoPiazza Leonardo da Vinci 32 - 20133 MILANOtel: +39 02 2399.2744  - 2750 secr.fax: +39 02 2399.2710roberto.camagni@polimi.ithttp://econreg.altervista.org Thanks! Prof. Roberto Camagni – Politecnico di Milano