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Social and Political Trust: Research Findings

Social and Political Trust: Research Findings. Patrick Sturgis Nick Allum Sanna Read Sarah Bulloch. Study Areas. Long-term trends in trust (various) Relationship btwn social and political trust (ESS) Causes of trust – panel data models (BHPS) Trust and childhood intelligence (cohorts)

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Social and Political Trust: Research Findings

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  1. Social and Political Trust:Research Findings Patrick Sturgis Nick Allum Sanna Read Sarah Bulloch

  2. Study Areas • Long-term trends in trust (various) • Relationship btwn social and political trust (ESS) • Causes of trust – panel data models (BHPS) • Trust and childhood intelligence (cohorts) • Trust and ethnic diversity (Taking Part) • A genetic basis of trust? (various) • The meaning of generalized trust questions (new data) • Trust in science and scientists (Eurobarometer)

  3. Trust in Decline?

  4. Trust and Childhood Intelligence

  5. Analysis of NCDS/BCS data • Generally assumed that intelligence is negatively correlated with trust • Our theory reverses this expectation • More intelligent individuals are better able to control the conditions under which they sanction trust • Less intelligent are more frequently betrayed in social/economic transactions • Ordered logit models predicting trust in adulthood with IQ aged 10 + many covariates

  6. Intelligence age 10as a predictor of trust age 34 (NCDS) Trust: A fair amount Estimated cell probability Trust: Not very much Trust: A lot Trust: Not at all Intelligence z-scores BCS70

  7. A Genetic Basis of Trust?

  8. Decomposing genetic and environmental effects classical twin design MZ=1.0, DZ = 0.5 MZ=1.0, DZ=1.0 A C E A C E Trust score Trust score Twin A Twin B MZ = Monozygotic DZ = Dizygotic A = Additive genetic C = Shared environment E = Unique environment V = Total variance VMZ = A + C + E VDZ = ½A + C + E

  9. Decomposing genetic and environmental effects Independent pathway Twin A Twin B MZ=1.0, DZ = 0.5 MZ=1.0, DZ=1.0 EC EC CC CC AC AC Item 2 Item 2 Item 1 Item 1 AS AS AS AS CS CS CS CS ES ES ES ES MZ=1.0, DZ=1.0 MZ=1.0, DZ = 0.5 MZ=1.0, DZ = 0.5 MZ=1.0, DZ=1.0 MZ = Monozygotic DZ = Dizygotic A = Additive genetic C = Shared environment E = Unique environment C = Common effect, S = Specific effect

  10. Genetic and environmental components and theircommon and specific effects on 5 trust items

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