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European Economic and Social Committee, Brussels, March 4, 2013

Agricultural resilience -- what do we know and what do we need to know . Sir Gordon Conway, Professor of International Development Agriculture for Impact, Imperial College, London. European Economic and Social Committee, Brussels, March 4, 2013. Resilience –stresses and shocks.

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European Economic and Social Committee, Brussels, March 4, 2013

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  1. Agricultural resilience -- what do we know and what do we need to know Sir Gordon Conway, Professor of International Development Agriculture for Impact, Imperial College, London European Economic and Social Committee, Brussels, March 4, 2013

  2. Resilience –stresses and shocks

  3. Africa’s Climate – Key Factors • Rising sea and land temperatures • Three Drivers: • Tropical convection • The Monsoons • El Niño – La Niña Oscillation

  4. El Niño – La Niño Oscillation La Niña El Niño http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/people/klaus.wolter/MEI/

  5. Stresses Gradual build-up of adverse events • Pest and disease attack • Land degradation • Growing pollution • Increasing temperatures • Rising sea levels • Greater or lesser rainfall • Growing indebtedness

  6. Climate change in Africa UNDP Human Development Report, 2006

  7. By 2050 Average Annual Max Temp > 300C More than 5% reduction in length of growing period Ericksenet al Mapping hotspots of climate change and food insecurity in the global tropics

  8. Shocks Usually dramatic, largely unexpected events • Locust outbreaks • Disease outbreaks • Sudden floods • Major drought • Cyclones • Earthquakes • Tsunamis • Financial collapse

  9. Extreme Events Hansen et al, 2012, NASA

  10. Extreme Events Russia • Severe heatwave in 2010 • Doubled Moscow’s death rate • 30% of grain crops lost to burning Pakistan • Worst floods in 80 years • Killed over 1600 people • Submerged 1/5th of the country, including 14% of Pakistan’s cultivated land

  11. We have to be Innovative

  12. Sustainable Intensification • Increased yields or production • On the same amount of land • With less water • Less fertilisers • Less pesticides • Lower emissions of Greenhouse Gases • Increased natural capital and environmental services • Greater resilience

  13. Precision FarmingMicrodosing in Niger

  14. Ecological Resilience • Use ecological principles to design agricultural practices • e.g. • Agroforestry • Integrated Pest • Management • Organic farming

  15. Conservation Farming in Zambia

  16. Genetic ResilienceModern Plant Breeding • Plants more nutritious • carbohydrate and protein • micronutrients (Vit A, iron, zinc) • Plants more resilient to • pests and diseases • climate change • Plants more efficient at • converting sunlight to food • taking up nitrogen from the atmosphere • using water

  17. Orange Fleshed Sweet Potatoes

  18. Bananas Resistant to Wilt in Uganda $500 million losses a year in Uganda Academia Sinica provided sweet potato gene Successfully transferred to bananas In Ugandan field trials Entirely government funded

  19. Chaperone Genes for Drought Tolerance • Genes from Bacterial RNA that help to repair misfolded proteins resulting from stress • Plants rapidly recover • No yield penalty when stress free • In African field trials

  20. Socio-Economic Resilience - Markets

  21. National trade An Enabling Environment Rural Economy Seed Co Fertiliser Co Connectivity Local trader Agrodealer Farm Household in the local community Banks for microcredit Regional trade Model of Alliance for a Green Revolution for Africa (AGRA)

  22. Resilient People

  23. Nwadjahane, Southern Mozambique Increasingly frequent and severe droughts, floods, and storms Fertile lowlands good crops but can be destroyed during flood Highlands good crops of maize and cassava during flood years, but less productive otherwise Eduardo Mondlane http://www.geog.ox.ac.uk/research/landscape/projects/adaptiv...

  24. How do we build Resilient Livelihoods?

  25. Thank You Conway, G. ‘One Billion Hungry: Can we feed the world?’ www.canwefeedtheworld.org Follow us on twitter: #1billionhungry For more info on Ag4Impact, go to: www.ag4impact.orgContact:g.conway@imperial.ac.uk

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