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Global Trade Trends

Global Trade Trends. Andrea Ratay, Senior Trade Sales Manager. Long Island Import Export Association, May 2011. Global Macro Trends. Emerging markets are growing faster than developed markets; however growth has slowed and is more balanced Economic stabilization occurring

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Global Trade Trends

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  1. Global Trade Trends Andrea Ratay, Senior Trade Sales Manager Long Island Import Export Association, May 2011

  2. Global Macro Trends • Emerging markets are growing faster than developed markets; however growth has slowed and is more balanced • Economic stabilization occurring • Conference Board's Leading Economic Index, an indicator of U.S. economic health rose in March for the ninth straight month • U.S. Census Bureau announced retail sales rose 6.6% in 2010. • World trade grows faster than GDP • Historically World Trade has grown at a faster pace than GDP • World trade growth recovered to 14.5% in 2010 • World trade is expected to grow 9.3% over the next ten years *Source HSBC Emerging Markets Index Q2 2010

  3. Trade and the Global EconomyEmerging Markets Lead Global Trade Confidence 1H11 Positive Neutral Negative Note: (1) The Overall Global Index is the unweighted average of the 21 markets listed above

  4. U.S. Trade Confidence at its Highest Level since 2H 2009 Positive Neutral Negative

  5. U.S. Businesses Expect Trade Volumes to Increase % Note: Figures may not add up to 100% due to rounding and the exclusion of “Don’t know/Refused” responses. Source: Q1. How do you expect the volume of your import, export business to change in the next 6 months? Do you expect the volume of your import, export business to increase significantly, increase slightly, maintain the same level, decrease slightly or decrease significantly? Base: USA n=300

  6. U.S. Businesses Expect Global Economy to Grow % Note: Figures may not add up to 100% due to rounding and the exclusion of “Don’t know/Refused” responses. Base: USA n=300 Source: Q13. How do you expect the global economy, to change in the next 6 months? Do you expect the global economy to…?

  7. Concerns Persist over Risk of Buyers Defaulting on Payments % Note: Figures may not add up to 100% due to rounding and the exclusion of “Don’t know / Refused” responses. Base: USA n=265 , excluding pure importers (only import raw materials or semi-finished/ finished goods; does not involve in any exports activities, not a commodity tradingcompany, and not an import or export broker/ wholesaler). Source: Q2A. How do you expect the risk of your buyers defaulting on payment to change in the next 6 months?

  8. Suppliers Will Be More Selective about Buyers and Require Advance Payments to Mitigate Non Payment Risk % 1H11 (Change from 2H10) +Figures with less than 1% mentions are not shown. Notes: (/) Denotes result is not available as there was no mention in the previous wave. , only those who answered ‘increase significantly’ or ‘increase slightly’ in Q2A Source: Q2B. What strategies, if any do you intend to put in place over the coming 6 months to overcome non-payment risk from buyers? Multiple mentions. Base: USA n=31

  9. Risk of Suppliers Not Honoring Trade Arrangements Continues to Concern Buyers % Note: Figures may not add up to 100% due to rounding and the exclusion of “Don’t know/Refused” responses. Source: Q3A. How do you expect the risk of suppliers not honoring agreed trade arrangements to change in the next 6 months? Base: USA n=300

  10. Buyers Cite Increases in Costs and Global Economy As Potential Reasons for Suppliers Not Honoring Trade Agreements % 1H11 (Change from 2H10) +Figures with less than 1% mentions are not shown. Notes: (/) Denotes result is not available as there was no mention in the previous wave. Base: USA n=51 , only those who answered ‘increase significantly’ or ‘increase slightly’ in Q3A. Source: Q3B. Why do you expect the risks of suppliers not honoring agreed trade arrangements to increase significantly / increase slightly? Multiple mentions.

  11. U.S. Businesses Expect Trade Finance Access to Improve % Note: Figures may not add up to 100% due to rounding and the exclusion of “Don’t know/Refused” responses. Base: USA n=300 Source: Q5A. In the next six months, how do you expect your capacity to access trade finance to change?

  12. Exchange Rates Seen as Unfavorable and as a Major Barrier to Trade Growth % Note: Figures may not add up to 100% due to rounding and the exclusion of “Don’t know/Refused” responses. Base: USA n=300 Source: Q7. How would you expect exchange rates to impact your import, export business in the next 6 months?

  13. Government Trade Regulations Being Viewed More Positively % Note: Figures may not add up to 100% due to rounding and the exclusion of “Don’t know/Refused” responses. Source: Q8. How would you expect government trade regulation to impact your import, export business in the next 6 months? Base: USA n=300

  14. Greater China and Latin America Represent Greatest Opportunities for Future Trade Growth % 1H11 (Change from 2H10) Notes: Greater China includes Hong Kong SAR, Mainland China, Taiwan, Macau (/) Denotes result is not available as there was no mention in the previous wave. Base: USA n=300 Source: Q9. Over the next six months, which of these regions do you see as having the best opportunity for your business growth?

  15. Summary • U.S. businesses demonstrated their highest level of confidence to date for the Trade Confidence Index • Expectations for growth are tempered by concerns related to rising costs of doing business, fluctuations in foreign exchange rates, narrower margins and volatile demand. • Suppliers are becoming increasingly selective about the buyers they do business with as a way to mitigate risk • China and Latin America are the two biggest growth opportunities for U.S. companies while Canada’s importance is declining • Government trade regulation seen as more favorable versus previous TCI reports • Intra-regional trade continues to underpin global trade activity with emerging markets playing a key role in all facets of future global trade growth

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