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Climate Change: The Great Debate

Climate Change: The Great Debate. ENVH 111 October 6, 2010 http://courses.washington.edu/envh111 /. The never-ending debate Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC) Senator James Inhofe Trends in climate change Global Pacific Northwest The role of public health

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Climate Change: The Great Debate

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  1. Climate Change: The Great Debate ENVH 111 October 6, 2010 http://courses.washington.edu/envh111/

  2. The never-ending debate Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC) Senator James Inhofe Trends in climate change Global Pacific Northwest The role of public health Assess health impacts of climate change Develop mitigation and adaptation strategies Overview

  3. NRDC climate change http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pG41xDxrzI8

  4. Inhofe video http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Skf8bpl8WSg

  5. Global Trends in Climate Change

  6. Svante Arrhenius, 1906 “Any doubling of the percentage of carbon dioxide in the air would raise the temperature of the Earth’s surface by 4 °C.” Climate Change Projections Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide -- President’s Science Advisory Committee, 1965 “Through his worldwide industrial civilization, Man is unwittingly conducting a vast geophysical experiment.” Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2007 … the best estimate of climate sensitivity to a CO2 doubling is a warming of 3°C, with a likely range of 2 to 4.5°C.

  7. Long term Trend in CO2

  8. Global average temperature Graham Environmental Sustainability Institute │ http://provost.umich.edu/gesi

  9. Muir Glacier, Alaska Aug 1941 & 2004

  10. Boulder Glacier on Mount Bakerthe North Cascades

  11. Tide gauge and satellite data on sea level Average rate of sea level rise: 1961 – 2003: 1.8 mm /yr 1993 – 2003: 3.1 mm /yr Source: Martin Manning, Director, IPCC Working Group

  12. Asthma, respiratory allergies, and airway diseases Cancer Cardiovascular disease and stroke Foodborne diseases and nutrition Heat-related morbidity and mortality Human developmental effects Mental health and stress-related disorders Neurological diseases and disorders Vectorborne and zoonotic diseases Waterborne diseases Weather-related morbidity and mortality Human Health Consequences of Climate ChangeNIH Report, April 2010

  13. Global Warming Potential of Greenhouse Emissions by Country(Density-Equalizing Cartogram) Mark Newman, University of Michigan (www.worldmapper.org)

  14. Climate-Related Mortality Jonathan Patz, University of Wisconsin

  15. Mitigation of climate change Actions taken to reduce greenhouse gas emissions Enhancement of sinks that trap or remove carbon from the atmosphere Adaptation to climate change Actions taken to lessen the impact on health and the environment Some adaptation strategies will directly improve public health through changes in infrastructure Climate Change and Human HealthNIH Report, April 2010

  16. Regional Trends in Climate Change University of Washington

  17. WA State Study: Methods • Establish historical relationship between heat events and mortality • 25 year database: 1980-2005; May-September • Humidex: combined effects of temperature and humidity • Heat events: event threshold definition • Hottest 1% of all days (99th percentile humidex) • Number of heat events and duration of each event • Excess deaths in 2025, 2045, 2085 • Customize estimates for key study areas • King County, Spokane County, Clark County • Also estimate future mortality due to heat

  18. Historical Analysis • Relative risk of death during heat event • Mean Daily Mortality Rate(heat event) • Mean Daily Mortality Rate(non-event)

  19. King County Relative Risk of Death, Heat Day vs Day < 36°C Humidex, † Unstable estimate due to small mortality rate in this category * statistically significant results at p<0.05

  20. Time Series AnalysisAll non-traumatic deaths ~1.8%per ºC

  21. Spatial Distribution of Risk Relative risk of all non-traumatic deaths associated with heat days from 1980-2006 in King County

  22. °F ºC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) by IPCC, 2001

  23. Future projections

  24. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zORv8wwiadQ&feature=related So What are our Choices?

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