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Changes in Atmospheric Circulation

Changes in Atmospheric Circulation

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Changes in Atmospheric Circulation

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  1. Changes in Atmospheric Circulation • Current Weather • Review of Major Teleconnection Patterns • Observed Changes in Atmospheric Circulation • For Next Class: Read IPCC AR4 Ch. 3 (pp. 286-295)

  2. Changes in Atmospheric Circulation • “Decadal variations in teleconnections considerably complicate the interpretation of climate change. Since the TAR, it has become clear that a small number of teleconnection patterns account for much of the seasonal to interannual variability in the extratropics” (Trenberth et al. 2007, Chapter 3 of IPCC Physical Science Basis)

  3. Major Teleconnections?

  4. Major Teleconnections? • ENSO (Southern Oscillation Index or SOI) • NAO/AO (Northern Annular Mode or NAM) • Antarctic Oscillation (Southern Annular Mode or SAM) • Pacific North American pattern (PNA) Index • Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and North Pacific Index (NPI)

  5. 1982-83 El Niño 1997-98 El Niño 1998-99 La Niña

  6. Arctic Oscillation (AO) NCDC 2010

  7. Accuweather 2004

  8. NOAA 2011

  9. Pacific Decadal Oscillation Univ. of Washington 2011

  10. Warm Arctic Cold Continents Pattern NSF 2010

  11. El Niño-Southern Oscillation North Atlantic Oscillation Late 1970s Climate Shift Pacific Decadal Oscillation “Decadal variations in teleconnections considerably complicate the interpretation of climate change. Since the TAR, it has become clear that a small number of teleconnection patterns account for much of the seasonal to interannual variability in the extratropics” (Trenberth et al. 2007, Chapter 3 of IPCC Physical Science Basis)

  12. Chacaltaya Glacier, Bolivia Antizana Glacier 15, Ecuador Warm-phase of ENSO (El Niño) has accelerated tropical Andean glacier retreat since the late 1970s Glacier Recession in Cord. Vilcanota, Peru 1997-98 Warm-phase ENSO Francou et al. (2003) Seimon et al. (2007)

  13. Recession of the plateau glaciers on Mt. Kilimanjaro in East Africa has been primarily a result of less precipitation and more sunshine in association with changes in atmospheric circulation. Kaseret al. (2010) http://www.mountkenyaexpeditions.com/images/mountkilimanjarofromAmboseli.jpg