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World War III

World War III. Predicting the Fate of the World System. I. The World System. Composed of states (see textbook) Characteristics Number of units – Figure 3.1 Increased Uncertainty Increased War 2. Distribution of Power Major vs. Minor Powers Concentration of Power

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World War III

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  1. World War III Predicting the Fate of the World System

  2. I. The World System • Composed of states (see textbook) • Characteristics • Number of units – Figure 3.1 • Increased Uncertainty • Increased War 2. Distribution of Power • Major vs. Minor Powers • Concentration of Power 3. Political Organization • Anarchy vs. Hierarchy – Figure 4.2

  3. GREAT POWERS MIDDLE POWERS SMALL POWERS GREAT POWERS MIDDLE POWERS SMALL POWERS GREAT POWERS MIDDLE POWERS SMALL POWERS b. Polarity and Leadership UNIPOLAR WORLD BIPOLAR WORLD MULTIPOLAR WORLD

  4. 3 3 5 5 5 5 3 9 3 9 2 2 5 5 5 5 5 5 c. Alliances and Polarization WEAKLY POLARIZED MULTIPOLAR WORLD STRONGLY POLARIZED MULTIPOLAR WORLD

  5. Economic, Demographic, and Military Capabilities in the 21st Century * Some believe China overstates its GDP ** Somewhat higher if PPP data used

  6. II. General Wars in History A. Habsburgs and Universal Empire 1494-1559 • Italian Wars (1494-1515): France vs. Spain (Habsburgs)  France vs. Holy League (Spain, England, Papal States, Venice) • French vs. Habsburgs (1521-1529, 1536-1538) • French and Ottomans vs. Habsburgs and England (1542-1546, 1552-1559) 

  7. B. Dutch Independence (1568-1609) • 1570s – 1600s: Dutch Revolt vs. Hapsburgs (Spain) • 1585: England Intervenes vs. Hapsburgs  Spanish Armada (1588)  Stalemate • French Protestants Aid Dutch Rebels • 1590s: Spanish intervention in French religious wars • Spain defeated in France (1590s)

  8. C. Thirty Years’ War (1618-1648) • Protestants vs. Catholics • Stages: • Hapsburgs (Spain, Holy Roman Empire) vs. German Protestants • Fear of Hapsburg unity –> anti-Hapsburg intervention (France, England, Netherlands, Denmark, Sweden) • Worldwide: Dutch vs. Portuguese and Spanish • Ending = Peace of Westphalia (book) • Hapsburg Power Limited (Territorial States) • French Gains  Collapse of Holy Roman Empire • Dutch naval dominance

  9. D. Anglo-Dutch Wars (1652-1679) • England and France vs. Netherlands • Worldwide, but not very bloody • Dutch colonies lost • Renewal of Anglo-French competition

  10. E. War of the Grand Alliance (1688-1696) • France invades Germany (1688) • League of Augsburg (Spain, Sweden, German states) opposes France • 1689: Grand Alliance formed vs. France (Austria, England, Netherlands, Spain, Germans) • “King William’s War” in America • French naval power destroyed, but France gains in Europe

  11. F. War of the Spanish Succession (1701-1714) • Hapsburg King of Spain dies – After partition fails, France claims throne • France, Spain, Bavaria, Portugal, Savoy vs. new Grand Alliance (England, Holland, Austria, other German states) • “Queen Anne’s War” in America • France agrees never to unite with Spain • English power increases dramatically

  12. G. War of the Austrian Succession (1739-1748) • Hapsburg Heir to Austria dies  Succession crisis • German states attack Austria (Saxon, Bavarian, Silesian Wars) • France aids German states  Franco-Austrian War (1744-1748) • Britain, Netherlands, Austria vs. France and Spain • “King George’s War” in America • France fails in objectives; Hapsburgs win

  13. H. Seven Years’ War (1756-1763) • French-English rivalry meets Austrian-Prussian competition • France and Native American allies attack English colonies (1755) • Prussia declares neutrality in French-English war • France responds by aiding Austria against Prussia • Alliances: France, Austria, Russia, Saxony, Sweden, Spain vs. Prussia, Britain, Hanover • More global than previous wars • French and Indian War in America • War in India and Southeast Asia • Results • France loses Quebec, India and other areas to Britain • Austria loses in Europe • Prussia becomes Great Power • Expenses  American Revolution and renewed French-British war

  14. I. Wars of the French Revolution and Napoleon (1792-1815) • War of the First Coalition (1792-1798): England, Spain, Austria, Prussia, Sardinia vs. France • Reaction to executions, threat of revolution • France wins in Continental Europe, but England keeps fighting • War of the Second Coalition (1798-1802): England, Russia, Austria, Turkey vs. France • Triggered by French gains in Italy, Germany • Rise of Napoleon • French-British War (1803-1805)

  15. 3. War of the Third Coalition (1805-1807) • Britain, Russia, Austria, Sweden vs. France and Spain • Austria surrenders unconditionally • French-Spanish fleet destroyed (Trafalgar) • Napoleon gains Poland, most of Germany. Forced alliance with Austria.

  16. 4. Continued Napoleonic Wars • Peninsular War (1807-1812): Napoleon vs. Portugal, Britain, and Spanish guerillas • Austro-French War (1809): Austria defeated again • Franco-Russian War (1812): Severe defeat for Napoleon • War of 1812 (to 1814): United States vs. Britain

  17. 5. Allies vs. Napoleon (1812-1815) • 1812-1814: Napoleon defeated; return to 1793 status quo • b. Napoleon’s Return (1815): France defeated, punished

  18. 6. Results • British supremacy at sea • Congress of Vienna: • Russia, Prussia gain territory • Austria gains in Germany and Italy • “Congress System” • “Eastern Question”

  19. J. Crimean War (1854-1856) • Russia vs. Turkey  Intervention by France, Britain, Piedmont-Sardinia • Limited War: Crimea and Baltic coasts • Results • Russia concedes before war becomes general • Concert of Europe • Power vacuum  Rise of Prussia (Wars against Austria and France, German unification)

  20. K. World War I (1914-1919) • Prewar: Multipolar but Polarized system • Triple Alliance (Germany, Austria-Hungary, Italy) vs. Triple Entente (Britain, Russia, France) • Threat of Hapsburg collapse after assassination  A-H vs. Serbia  Russia vs. A-H  Germany vs. Russia  Germany vs. France  Germany vs. Britain

  21. 3. Europe at War: Central Powers vs. Allies

  22. 4. Results (See p.28/Map 16 in Atlas) • Final collapse of Hapsburgs • End of “Eastern Question” • Destruction of German naval challenge • Relative decline of Europe • League of Nations

  23. L. World War II (1939-1945) • Germany and Italy vs. Britain and France (1939-1941) • Japan vs. China (1937-1941) • Soviet and American entry (1941) Allies (USA, USSR, Britain, France, China) vs. Axis (Germany, Italy, Japan) • Results (See p.29/Map 16 in Atlas) • Five victorious “Great Powers” but only two superpowers • Beginning of Cold War – and “Long Peace” • Nuclear weapons

  24. M. Summary of General Wars

  25. III. The War that Wasn’t: The Cold War • US vs. USSR: The world chooses sides (see p.30 / Map 17 in Atlas)

  26. B. Impact of Nuclear Weapons • Destructiveness of a single weapon

  27. Example: 100 KT Surface Blast, Fort Hood Main Gate • 100 KT = larger than ordinary fission bomb, smaller than largest Russian weapons

  28. 15 psi: Virtually all dead 5 psi: 50% dead, 45% injured 2 psi: 5% dead, 45% injured) 1 psi: 25% injured

  29. Compare: 1 MT Surface Blast

  30. Compare: 20KT Surface Blast

  31. Example: 100 KT Surface: Fallout 1 hour: Lethal 2 hours: Lethal 3 hours: Lethal 4 hours: Lethal and 50% Lethal 5 hours: Lethal and 50% Lethal Possible Zone of Sickness

  32. B. Impact of Nuclear Weapons • Destructiveness of a single weapon • Cold War arsenals:

  33. 3. Effects of full-scale nuclear war a. Immediate Deaths

  34. b. Fallout

  35. b. Fallout

  36. b. Fallout

  37. c. “Nuclear Winter” Controversial theory condemned as “defeatist” by Cold Warriors

  38. C. Nuclear Crises • Iran 1946 • Berlin Blockade 1948-1949 • Korea 1950-1953 • Quemoy-Matsu 1954 and 1958 • Berlin Wall 1961 • Cuban Missile Crisis 1962 • Vietnam 1969 • October War 1973

  39. D. Pervasiveness of US-Soviet Competition • Popular culture • Fallout shelters and civil defense • Absurd weapons and overly nuke-friendly scientists

  40. III. Theories of World War • Long Cycle of Leadership • Phases of the cycle • World Power – Single dominant state with global reach • Delegitimation – Other states recover from the global war, seek increased influence • Deconcentration – Challengers and the leader build coalitions • Global War – The new leader is decided, as one state emerges with dominant global reach

  41. 2. Global Reach • Naval power is key: definition changes over time

  42. 3. Evidence: Cycles of War? • Deaths in major power wars:

  43. Scope of wars

  44. 4. Predictions • Global war: 2030

  45. B. Power Transition • Assumptions a. System Level: World is Hierarchic

  46. Region Level: Multiple hierarchies model

  47. War by Challenger to change SQ Preemptive war by Dom Challenger Power Dominant t Unstable b. Dyad Level: Challenger vs. Dominant Power

  48. c. State Level: What creates transitions? • Existence of challenger: status quo evaluations • Rise of challenger: development curve

  49. 2. Measuring Power • GNP  Ultimately reduces to population! • Relative Political Capacity – Taxes

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