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World War III

World War III. Predicting the Fate of the World System. The System Level of Analysis. Power, Polarity, and Polarization. I. The World System (Global Society). Composed of states, IGOs and NGOs (see textbook) Characteristics Increase in number of units – Figure 3.1 Increased Uncertainty

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World War III

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  1. World War III Predicting the Fate of the World System

  2. The System Level of Analysis Power, Polarity, and Polarization

  3. I. The World System (Global Society) • Composed of states, IGOs and NGOs (see textbook) • Characteristics • Increase in number of units – Figure 3.1 • Increased Uncertainty • Increased War?

  4. 2. Distribution of Power States vs. Nonstate Actors – Figure 3.2 Major vs. Minor Powers Concentration of Power: depends on measurement

  5. CINC scores of selected powers, 1816-2007

  6. The World System (Global Society) • Composed of states, IGOs and NGOs (see textbook) • Characteristics • Number of units – Figure 3.1 • Increased Uncertainty • Increased War? 2. Distribution of Power 3. Political Organization • Anarchy vs. Hierarchy – Figure 4.2

  7. GREAT POWERS MIDDLE POWERS SMALL POWERS GREAT POWERS MIDDLE POWERS SMALL POWERS GREAT POWERS MIDDLE POWERS SMALL POWERS 3. Political Organization • Anarchy/Hierarchy: Role of IGOs, power concentration • Polarity: Number of great powers UNIPOLAR WORLD BIPOLAR WORLD MULTIPOLAR WORLD

  8. i. Who counts as a “pole?” • Depends on definition: capabilities, political influence, or leadership? • What makes a state stronger? • What gives a state influence?

  9. Economic, Demographic, and Military Capabilities Today * Some believe China overstates its GDP ** Somewhat higher if PPP data used

  10. ii. Is the world unipolar? • China has more people (helps explain CINC score) but… • Most dramatic difference between US and all other states = military spending

  11. Military Spending: US (FY 2012) vs. Rest of World

  12. 3 3 5 5 5 5 3 9 3 9 2 2 5 5 5 5 5 5 c. Alliances and Polarization: Not the same thing as Polarity! WEAKLY POLARIZED MULTIPOLAR WORLD STRONGLY POLARIZED MULTIPOLAR WORLD

  13. II. A Brief History of General Wars Are there patterns of world war in history?

  14. General Wars Begin as a war between two great powers of the time Drag in at least one more great power At stake is the existing international order

  15. A. Habsburgs and Universal Empire 1494-1559 • Italian Wars (1494-1515): France vs. Spain (Habsburgs)  France vs. Holy League (Spain, England, Papal States, Venice) • French vs. Habsburgs (1521-1529, 1536-1538) • French and Ottomans vs. Habsburgs and England (1542-1546, 1552-1559) 

  16. B. First Dutch Independence (1568-1609) • 1570s – 1600s: Dutch Revolt vs. Hapsburgs (Spain) • 1585: England Intervenes vs. Hapsburgs  Spanish Armada (1588)  Stalemate • French Protestants Aid Dutch Rebels • 1590s: Spanish intervention in French religious wars • Spain defeated in France (1590s)

  17. C. Thirty Years’ War (1618-1648) • Protestants vs. Catholics • Stages: • Hapsburgs vs. German Protestants in the Holy Roman Empire. Hapsburgs win, but… • Hostility to Hapsburgs in other dyadic wars –> anti-Hapsburg interventions (France, England, Netherlands, Denmark, Sweden) • Worldwide: Dutch vs. Portuguese and Spanish Habsburgs (Second Dutch Independence)

  18. 3. The Peace of Westphalia Hapsburg Power limited by new constitution (empowered the embryos of modern Territorial States) French Gains  Near-collapse of Holy Roman Empire Dutch later win Second War of Independence, emerge with naval dominance

  19. D. Anglo-Dutch Wars (1652-1679) • England and France vs. Netherlands • Worldwide, but not very bloody • Dutch colonies lost • Renewal of Anglo-French competition

  20. E. War of the Grand Alliance (1688-1696) • France invades Germany (1688) • League of Augsburg (Spain, Sweden, German states) opposes France • 1689: Grand Alliance formed vs. France (Austria, England, Netherlands, Spain, Germans) • “King William’s War” in America • French naval power destroyed, but France gains in Europe

  21. F. War of the Spanish Succession (1701-1714) • Hapsburg King of Spain dies – After partition fails, France claims throne • France, Spain, Bavaria, Portugal, Savoy vs. new Grand Alliance (England, Holland, Austria, other German states) • “Queen Anne’s War” in America • France agrees never to unite with Spain • English power increases dramatically

  22. G. War of the Austrian Succession (1739-1748) • Hapsburg Heir to Austria dies  Succession crisis • German states attack Austria (Saxon, Bavarian, Silesian Wars) • France aids German states  Franco-Austrian War (1744-1748) • Britain, Netherlands, Austria vs. France and Spain • “King George’s War” in America • France fails in objectives; Hapsburgs win

  23. H. Seven Years’ War (1756-1763) • French-English rivalry meets Austrian-Prussian competition • France and Native American allies attack English colonies (1755) • Prussia declares neutrality in French-English war • France responds by aiding Austria against Prussia • Alliances: France, Austria, Russia, Saxony, Sweden, Spain vs. Prussia, Britain, Hanover

  24. 2. Global War More global than previous wars: • French and Indian War in America • Third Carnatic War in India and Southeast Asia

  25. 3.Results: Rise and Fall of the Great Powers Austria loses in Europe Prussia becomes Great Power France loses Quebec, India and other areas to Britain Expenses  American Revolution and renewed French-British war

  26. I. Wars of the French Revolution and Napoleon (1792-1815) • War of the First Coalition (1792-1798): England, Spain, Austria, Prussia, Sardinia vs. France • Reaction to executions, threat of revolution • France wins in Continental Europe, but England keeps fighting • War of the Second Coalition (1798-1802): England, Russia, Austria, Turkey vs. France • Triggered by French gains in Italy, Germany • Rise of Napoleon • French-British War (1803-1805)

  27. 3. War of the Third Coalition (1805-1807) • Britain, Russia, Austria, Sweden vs. France and Spain • Austria surrenders unconditionally • French-Spanish fleet destroyed (Trafalgar) • Napoleon gains Poland, most of Germany. Forced alliance with Austria.

  28. 4. Continued Napoleonic Wars • Peninsular War (1807-1812): Napoleon vs. Portugal, Britain, and Spanish guerillas • Austro-French War (1809): Austria defeated again • Franco-Russian War (1812): Severe defeat for Napoleon • War of 1812 (to 1814): United States vs. Britain

  29. 5. Allies vs. Napoleon (1812-1815) • 1812-1814: Napoleon defeated; return to 1793 status quo • b. Napoleon’s Return (1815): France defeated, punished

  30. 6. Results • British supremacy at sea • Congress of Vienna: • Russia, Prussia gain territory • Austria gains in Germany and Italy • “Congress System” • “Eastern Question”

  31. J. Crimean War (1854-1856) • Russia vs. Turkey  Intervention by France, Britain, Piedmont-Sardinia • Limited War: Crimea and Baltic coasts • Results • Russia concedes before war becomes general • Concert of Europe • Power vacuum  Rise of Prussia (Wars against Austria and France, German unification)

  32. K. World War I (1914-1919) • Prewar: Multipolar but Polarized system • Triple Alliance (Germany, Austria-Hungary, Italy) vs. Triple Entente (Britain, Russia, France) • Threat of Hapsburg collapse after assassination  A-H vs. Serbia  Russia vs. A-H  Germany vs. Russia  Germany vs. France  Germany vs. Britain

  33. 3. Europe at War: Central Powers vs. Allies

  34. 4. Results of World War I • Final collapse of Hapsburgs • End of “Eastern Question” • Destruction of German naval challenge • Relative decline of Europe • League of Nations

  35. L. World War II (1939-1945) • Germany and Italy vs. Britain and France (1939-1941) • Japan vs. China (1937-1941) • Soviet and American entry (1941) Allies (USA, USSR, Britain, France, China) vs. Axis (Germany, Italy, Japan) • Results • Five victorious “Great Powers” but only two superpowers • Beginning of Cold War – and “Long Peace” • Nuclear weapons

  36. M. Summary of General Wars

  37. The War That Wasn’t Why did the Cold War stay cold?

  38. III. The War that Wasn’t: The Cold War • US vs. USSR: The world chooses sides

  39. B. Impact of Nuclear Weapons • Destructiveness of a single weapon • Example: 100 KT Surface Blast, Fort Hood Main Gate • 100 KT = larger explosion than WW II atomic bombs but much less powerful than many 1950s weapons

  40. 15 psi: Virtually all dead 5 psi: 50% dead, 45% injured 2 psi: 5% dead, 45% injured) 1 psi: 25% injured

  41. Compare: 1 MT Surface Blast

  42. Compare: 20KT Surface Blast

  43. Example: 100 KT Surface: Fallout 1 hour: Lethal 2 hours: Lethal 3 hours: Lethal 4 hours: Lethal and 50% Lethal 5 hours: Lethal and 50% Lethal Possible Zone of Sickness

  44. 2. Effects of full-scale nuclear war a. Immediate Deaths

  45. b. Fallout

  46. b. Fallout

  47. b. Fallout

  48. c. “Nuclear Winter” Controversial theory condemned as “defeatist” by Cold Warriors

  49. C. Nuclear Crises • Iran 1946 • Berlin Blockade 1948-1949 • Korea 1950-1953 • Quemoy-Matsu 1954 and 1958 • Berlin Wall 1961 • Cuban Missile Crisis 1962 • Vietnam 1969 • October War 1973

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