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Climate change, public health and politics 

Climate change, public health and politics . Alicia Campbell. Climate and the Collapse of Maya Civilization Haug et al, 2003. Pre-Classic period c2000BC to AD 250 Classic period AD 250 to AD950 Foreign invasion Peasant revolt Epidemic disease Overpopulation Climate Change Drought

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Climate change, public health and politics 

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  1. Climate change, public health and politics  Alicia Campbell

  2. Climate and the Collapse of Maya Civilization Haug et al, 2003 • Pre-Classic period c2000BC to AD 250 • Classic period AD 250 to AD950 • Foreign invasion • Peasant revolt • Epidemic disease • Overpopulation • Climate Change • Drought • Terminal Classic Collapse

  3. Dependence upon seasonal rainfall • The Maya civilization developed in a seasonal desert and depended on a consistent rainfall cycle to support agricultural production. • Most of the rain falls during the summer, when the ITCZ sits at its northernmost position over the Yucatan. • Maya seasonal water storage strategies: • Rainfall catchment • Quarries and excavations converted into water reservoirs • Topographic highs to use the hydraulic gradient to distribute the water from canals into complex irrigation systems

  4. Ocean Drilling Program, Cariaco Basin • Visibly laminated sediments • Light-colored laminae consist mostly of biogenic components deposited during the dry winter-spring upwelling season, when the ITCZ is located at its southernmost position • Dark laminaeare deposited during the regional rainy season (summer-fall), when the ITCZ migrates to its most northerly position, almost directly over the Cariaco Basin. Dark-colored laminaehave record higher inputs of Ti • Bulk Ti content ≈ wet conditions • High sedimentation rate, high resolution (bi-monthly)

  5. Tripartite theory of city abandonment: • Based on the last dates carved into natural monuments • Separate phases of collapse at AD 810, AD 860 and AD 910 • Cariaco Record results show: • Drought at AD 810, AD 860, AD 910 • Short, but severe droughts in an overall dry period

  6. Classic period-environmental carrying capacity • Distinct mutli-year droughts + dry period = drawn out, regionally variable collapse • Effecting cities with artificial water systems, limited access to groundwater more • Undermining Maya institution of governance

  7. A Test of Climate, Sun, and CultureRelationships from an 1810-YearChinese Cave Record Zhang et al, 2008 • Asian Monsoon (AM) • Affects ≈ 1/3 of the world’s population • Warm/wet summer, cold/dry winter

  8. The proxy • Stalagmite from Wanxiang Cave, China • Located on the fringes of the area currently affected by the summer monsoon and is thus sensitive to and integrates broad changes • High growth rate, high uranium concentrations, and low thorium concentrations allow high oxygen isotope resolution (δ18O) and high-precision 230 Thages (age certainty)

  9. Strong: first several decades of the Northern Song Dynasty (increased rice cultivation and dramatic population increase) Weak: Final decades of the Dynasties -Tang, -Yuan, -Ming (popular unrest)

  10. Modern Climate Change • AM weakening since ~1960 • Anticorrelating with NH temperature (rising) • Dominant forcing of AM variability may have changed from natural to anthropogenic causes • Black carbon-lower troposphere cooling + mid/upper troposphere heating = reduction in Asian Monsoon precipitation • Differential sulfate aerosol loading (indirectly) can shift tropical rainfall southward (weakening AM)

  11. Managing the health effects ofclimate change Costello et al, 2009 • “The greatest global health threat of the 21st century” • Lancet and University College London Institute for Global Health Commission • Medium-risk scenarios predicting 2–3°Crises by 2090 and 4–5°C rises in northern Canada, Greenland, and Siberia. • Direct and Indirect health challenges • Six main aspects

  12. Key Topics Six Aspects of Health Challenges Key Challenges to form a Policy Response Framework Informational Poverty and equity-related Technological Sociopolitical Institutional • Changing patterns of disease and mortality • Food • Water and sanitation • Shelter and human settlements • Extreme events • Population and migration

  13. Changing patterns of disease and mortality • Heat waves • Heat stroke • Heat stress • Ex: “The heatwavesof 2003 in Europe caused up to 70 000 deaths, especially from respiratory and cardiovascular causes.” • Increased frequency of infectious vector-borne diseases • tick-borne Encephalitis • dengue fever • Cholora • Lyme, West Nile • Ex: Malaria: • rate of pathogen maturation and replication within mosquitoes • density of insects in a particular area • likelihood of infection

  14. Malaria • Models and scenarios to estimate that 260–320 million more people will be affected by malaria by 2080 • Mosquito abundance is amplified with warming, with an over ten-fold increase with every unit increase (0·1°C) in temperature.

  15. Food • After the rise in food prices in 2008, 100 million to 850 million—might suffer hunger or food insecurity. • According to the UN World Food Programme, the number of food emergencies every year has increased from an average of 15 during the 1980s to more than 30. • Ex: “Corn and soy bean yields in the USA fell by 17% for every degree rise in growing season temperature.” • “Harvests of staple food crops, such as rice and maize, could fall between 20% and 40% as a result of increased temperatures during the growing season in tropical and subtropical regions.” • Half of the world’s population could face severe food shortages by the end of the century

  16. Water & Sanitation • Ex: In Delhi, 15 million people face serious water shortages, with water being transported up to 300 km. The projected population of this municipality is more than 30 million by 2025. • Water abundance mismatched with population • Glacial-fed water catchments (1/6 world population) • Water shortages versus increased flooding

  17. Shelter • Urban settlements • Access to utilities • Population centers on coasts • Mass displacement, refugees • Cities at risk from floods or sea level rise: Alexandria (Egypt), Cotonou(Benin), Dhaka (Bangladesh), Lagos and Port Harcourt (Nigeria), Abidjan (Côte d’Ivoire), Mombasa (Kenya), Buenos Aires (Argentina), and Bamenda (Cameroon)

  18. Extreme Events • The number of great weather-related disasters has climbed from an average of less than two per year in 1950 to more than six in 2007. • Over the same period, average annual economic losses have risen from less than $5 billion to more than $60 billion. • Affecting: health, food, water, shelter, etc…

  19. Population • World population is likely to increase from the current 7 billion to 9.2 billion in 2050 • Population increases in less developed countries • Ex: “It is estimated that 72% of the dwellers in African cities live in slums, which, having poor drainage facilities, are especially prone to flooding and ill health”

  20. Costs • “According to the UK Government commissioned Stern review on the economics of climate change in 2006, if we do everythingwe can now to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions and ensure we adapt to the future effects of climate change, the average estimated cost is 1% of the world gross domestic product (GDP) every year. • However, if we do nothing, the effects of climate change could cost 5–20% of the world GDP every year.”

  21. How can we prevent this? Or at least ameliorate the situation • Any adaptation should sit alongside the need for primary mitigation: • reduction in greenhouse gas emissions • increase carbon biosequestration through reforestation • improved agricultural practices. • Inputs from all sectors of government and civil society, collaboration between many academic disciplines, and international cooperation • Public health • Ex: exploit African ground water (currently only 4% exploited), produce less beef, urban development, less coastal development, etc… • ETHICS

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