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  1. MODERN UNIVERSITY FOR BUSINESS & SCIENCE INTERNATIONAL SCHOOL OF BUSINESS -ISB- Course Handbook ECO501: Business Economics Analysis & Forecasting Spring – 2019 Moderated by

  2. Moderated by Table of Contents I. Important things to remember ........................................................................................................... 2 II.Course Outline ................................................................................................................................... 3 III.Student Contribution ......................................................................................................................... 8 IV.How the Module is assessed? ............................................................................................................ 8 4.1 Assessment (1): Case Study ............................................................................................................... 8 4.2 Assessment (2): Case Study ............................................................................................................... 9 4.3 Assessment: Final Exam .................................................................................................................... 9 V.Assessment Criteria ......................................................................................................................... 10 Page 1 of 11 ECO501 Business Economics Analysis & Forecasting

  3. Moderated by I. Important things to remember Make Up Exam Policy: Students missing an exam, a quiz or any graded assignment, comprising over 10% of the final grade, must submit a petition to Students Affairs Office (SAO) within (7) working days for review. Please email the petition to the respective campus using the following emails: Beirutpetition@mubs.edu.lb Aleypetition@mubs.edu.lb Damourpetition@mubs.edu.lb Semkaniyehpetition@mubs.edu.lb Attendance & Tardiness Policy: Attendance is mandatory for all classes and constitutes 5%-10% of the students’ final grade. Students arriving more than (10) minutes late will be allowed to join the lecture, but no attendance will be awarded. Course Materials & UMS: A course handbook, which includes a course outline, detailing all aspects of each course will be posted to UMS. If such file does not exist, please email the dean. Students’ Expectations: Students are expected to have a textbook, and where applicable, a calculator. In addition, students should adhere to the code of conduct set forth by the MUBS administration in the classroom and during examination. Please note that Cell Phone usage is prohibited in the classroom. Events Participation: Depending on the nature of the course, students may be required to participate in certain related events. Active participation in these events may affect the students’ final grades positively. Communication with the ISB: As a business student you can at anytime email the ISB management for any suggestions, complains, comments, problems, etc … at: isb@mubs.edu.lb Page 2 of 11 ECO501 Business Economics Analysis & Forecasting

  4. Moderated by II. Course Outline ECO501 Business Economics Analysis & Forecasting Course : 8:30 p.m.- 11:00 p.m. Session : Saturday Instructor : Mr. ------------------- 7:30 p.m.- 8:30 p.m. Office Hours : Saturday Campus : Damour --------------------@mubs.edu.lb Email : Textbook : Case, K.E., Fair, R.C. & Oster, S.M. (2016). Principles of Economics 12th Edition, Global Edition.: Pearson. Berenson, M. L., Levine, D. M. &Krehbiel, T.C. (2011). Basic Business Statistics 12th Edition.: Pearson. Additional readings: 1-Abraham, B., &Ledolter, J. (2013). Statistical Methods for Forecasting, 2ndEdition.: Wiley. 2-Anderson, D. R., Sweeney, D. J., Williams, T. A., Camm, J.D., &Cochran, J.J. (2017). Statistics for Business and Economics, Revised 13thEdition.:South-Western College Pub. 3-Bomhoff, E.J.(1995). Financial Forecasting for Business and Economics. Academic Press. 4-Koop, G. (2013). Analysis of Economic Data, 4th Edition.: Wiley. 5-Kourdi, J. (2015). Business Strategy: A guide to effective decision-making, 3rd Edition.: The Economist Books Course Description: Business economics analysis is a systematic approach to determining the optimum use of scarce resources and achieving business objectives under the given assumptions and constraints. This course will develop the student’s ability to understand, analyze and use economic logic and data to inform business decision-making. In addition, this course will investigate factors that affect business performance and examine how to make optimal business decisions based on statistical analysis through the application of statistical techniques that will assist the student in developing a modern managerial approach to evaluating business arguments and making decisions. Page 3 of 11 ECO501 Business Economics Analysis & Forecasting

  5. Moderated by Course Objectives: ECO501 Business Economics Analysis & Forecasting will explore and examine economics concepts and their application in “real world” business situations, in addition to how the economy is structured, how it operates and what problems it can cause for businesses. This course will help the student develop the necessary analytical techniques and use an array of economic data in a logical and consistent framework, in order to make sound decisions which consider the consequences of various economic events. In addition, this course will explain how to forecast economic events drawing on data and trends, and utilize analytical techniques to address economic variables such as regression models, correlation and time-series forecasting. Learning Outcomes: On successful completion of this course, the student will be able to: 1.Examine basic economic concepts and problems facing businesses, and apply theory to practical problems in a business context. 2.Explore the interaction of demand and supply in the marketplace. 3.Apply the appropriate economic tools to conduct a meaningful analysis of the business economics conditions in a professional ethical context. 4.Present quantitative information in a clear simple and informative format in order to facilitate forecasting. 5.Interpret economic data and analyze quantitative and/or qualitative information to assess business situations and make informed business decisions while assessing possible impacts. Grade Allocation: Attendance and participation Assessment ONE Assessment TWO Final Exam : : : : 10% 20% 30% 40% Grading Scale: A+ : 97% - 100% B+ : 87% - 89% C+ : 77% - 79% D+ : 67% - 69% A : 93% - 96% B : 83% - 86% C : 73% - 76% D : 63% - 66% A- : 90% - 92% B- : 80% - 82% C- : 70% - 72% D- : 60% - 62% F : 59% & below Page 4 of 11 ECO501 Business Economics Analysis & Forecasting

  6. Moderated by Teaching Methods: -(L) Lectures -(E) Exercises Course Plan: Teaching Methods L/E Session Topics Topic Learning Objectives Introduction to the course. TOPIC 1: Economic Definitions Definitions of Decision Making and Forecasting, and the framework thereto. The scope and Methods of Economics and the economic problem of Scarcity and Choice. In-class exercises. 1 TOPIC 2: Supply, Demand& Market Equilibrium The notions of Demand, Supply and Market Equilibrium, and the applications thereof. In-class exercises. L/E 2 TOPIC 3: Elasticity of Demand & Supply The concept of Elasticity and how consumers and producers respond to price changes. In-class exercises. L/E 3 TOPIC 4: Behavior of Profit Maximizing Firms The transforms inputs into outputs, and the behavior of firms as they demand factors of production in input markets and supply goodsand services in output markets. In-class exercises. L/E firm’s production processthat 4 TOPIC 5: Short-Run Cost &Output Decisions The decisions that firmsmake in their quest for profits taking into consideration the costs of production. The main decisions are: production technique or technology to use, and quantity of inputs. In-class exercises. L/E 5 output to supply, Page 5 of 11 ECO501 Business Economics Analysis & Forecasting

  7. Moderated by Teaching Methods L/E Session Topics Topic Learning Objectives Assessment ONE TOPIC 6: Regression Models Submission of Assessment ONE The use of regression analysis to predict the value of a dependent variable based on an independent variable. Evaluating the assumptions of regression analysis and know what to do if the assumptions are violated. In-class exercises. 6 & 7 TOPIC 7: Correlations Making inferences about the slope and correlation coefficient Estimating mean values and predict individual values. In-class exercises. 8 & 9 L/E 10 & 11 TOPIC 8: Time-Series Forecasting Time-series forecasting models: moving averages, exponential smoothing, the linear trend, the quadratic trend, the exponential autoregressive models and least-squares models for seasonal data. In-class exercises. L/E trend—and the Assessment TWO Submission of Assessment TWO Presentation of Findings 12 E Page 6 of 11 ECO501 Business Economics Analysis & Forecasting

  8. Moderated by Classroom Policies: Attendance: Class attendance is mandatory and constitutes 10% of the final grade. If for some reason a student has to miss class unexpectedly, it is the student’s responsibility to make certain that all assigned work is completed. Excessive absenteeism will be grounds for disciplinary and corrective actions by the Office of Student Affairs. Participation: Participation is a necessary part of classroom. It is not enough to merely attend courses; students must also participate in the learning process. Students are graded on participation separately from attendance, however absence from class necessarily deducts from a student’s total participation grade. Likewise, students who do not participate, or those who attend class and cause a disruption, will lose participation points. To fully participate in classes, students should read the chapter prior to the lesson, and add positive commentary or questions to the session. Cell phones are strictly forbidden in class and examination rooms, and the use of cell phones constitutes classroom disruption. Makeup Exams: A makeup exam may be given by written consent of the department if the student sends an electronic petition within 7 days of the date of the exam. The date of the makeup will be decided by the department concerned. A penalty is applied if exams are not taken on the scheduled exam date(s). Academic Integrity and misconduct: Plagiarism is defined as the practice of (dishonestly) claiming or implying original authorship of material, which one has not actually created. Plagiarism, or any form of cheating, will result in a ZEROfor the course. In addition, it is everybody’s responsibility to provide an environment conducive for learning; therefore, mutual respect is required between students and instructors as well as between students themselves. Any notion of misconduct will be reported to the administration and may lead to suspension, probation, or dismissal from the university. The University regulations on plagiarism and unfair practice must be observed. Your attention is drawn in particular to the need to acknowledge all sources of information by clearly referencing all material using Harvard system of referencing. The ISB reserves the right to ask for further proof of the nature and source of material used and you are advised to keep complete records of such sources. Assignments &Projects: Assignments and projects must be turned in by the set due date. If you are absent from class, you should call a fellow classmate to find out if there were any assigned exercises during your absence. You are responsible for any and all information given during your absence. Go Green:MUBS is committed to reducing the university’s carbon footprint. Please do not submit hardcopy assignments unless necessary. Make sure that you throw away recyclable items in the allocated recycling bins on campus. Conserve the use of electricity by turning off the light when you leave a room.For more information regarding the student code of conduct as well as other related subjects, please check policy on the website. Page 7 of 11 ECO501 Business Economics Analysis & Forecasting

  9. Moderated by III.Student Contribution Student contribution to this course is to: Attend all lectures Participate in lecture/seminar discussion and activities Work individually or in group on case analysis requested by the module leader(s) Follow-up on sessions by identifying key concepts in appropriate reference literature and reading more about them Review tasks/hand-outs by completing further examples not covered in class IV.How the Module is Assessed? The assessment tasks, their weighting and the course learning outcomes to which they are alignedare detailed here after in this handbook. 1.Assessment ONE: 20% of final mark for the course, covering Learning Outcomes 1 and 2. 2.Assessment TWO: 30% of final mark for the course, covering Learning Outcomes 3 and 4. 3.Final Exam: 40% of final mark for the course, covering Learning Outcome 5. 4.1 Assessment ONE: Case Study Weighting: 20% of final mark for the course Due date: Session 6 Covered Learning Outcomes: 1.Examine basic economic concepts and problems facing businesses, and apply theory to practical problems in a business context. 2.Explore the interaction of demand and supply in the marketplace. How to prepare yourself for this assessment? Student should use the learning outcomes covered by Topics 1-5. It is recommended that the instructor here specifies some hints for students regarding the material to be studied and how they should study. Page 8 of 11 ECO501 Business Economics Analysis & Forecasting

  10. Moderated by 4.2 Assessment TWO: Case Study& Presentation Weighting: 30% of final mark for the course Due date: Session 12 Covered Learning Outcomes: 3.Apply the appropriate economic tools to conduct a meaningful analysis of the business economics conditions in a professional ethical context. 4.Present quantitative information in a clear simple and informative format in order to facilitate forecasting. How to prepare yourself for this assessment? Student should use the learning outcomes covered by Topics 6-8. It is recommended that the instructor here specifies some hints for students regarding the material to be studied and how they should study. 4.3 Assessment: Final Exam Weighting: 40% of final mark for the course Due date: TBA Duration: 120 minutes Covered Learning Outcomes: 5.Interpret economic data and analyze quantitative and/or qualitative information to assess business situations and make informed business decisions while assessing possible impacts. How to prepare yourself for this assessment? Students should prepare well for the final exam by studying Topics 2-8.It is recommended that the instructor here specifies some hints for students regarding the material to be studied and how they should study. Exam structure and Marking Scheme: 1-Multiple Choice Questions Section (10 points): This section contains 10 multiple-choice questions for knowledge review. Each question has no less than 4 choices (i.e. a, b, c & d). 2-Formula Application Section (90 points): The formula section contains4 Exercises. Page 9 of 11 ECO501 Business Economics Analysis & Forecasting

  11. Moderated by V. Assessment Criteria The following is an indication of the academic characteristics that the assignment will be required to have satisfied in order to be awarded the grade indicated: A (90% +):Excellent performance relative to designated learning outcomes. Demonstrates excellent understanding of the subject matter covered in the assessment. Demonstrates a high degree of analytical ability, originality and critical insight using a wide range of sources and literature. Demonstrates a very high level of comprehension of relevant academic content and shows clear evidence of appreciating its professional application. Work is well written, well presented, and fully referenced. Marks in the higher end of the marking band are awarded for exceptional pieces of work that demonstrate a deep understanding of the subject matter covered in the assessment. The work demonstrates an exceptional grasp of relevant theory and a rigorous application. B (80-89%): Very good performance relative to designated learning outcomes. Demonstrates broad understanding of the subject matter covered in the assessment. Demonstrates solid analytical ability and a good grasp of the relevant academic content and its application. Demonstrates good powers of critical thought. The discussion is well organized and structured logically. Arguments are justified sufficiently. Work displays evidence of reading of the literature and other sources. Work is clearly written, clearly presented, and referenced appropriately C (70-79%): Good performance relative to designated learning outcomes. Demonstrates understanding of the subject matter covered in the assessment. Demonstrates knowledge of the material provided in the basic readings but without much evidence of wider reading. There may be some isolated deficiencies in knowledge and understanding. The discussion reflects some ability to argue logically and organize an answer. Work is presented appropriately and is referenced adequately. D (60-69%): Satisfactory performance in designed learning outcomes. Demonstrates a basic understanding of the subject matter covered in the assessment. Demonstrates some ability to identify key issues and construct an argument. Shows comprehension of the basic facts and principles but may present some notable deficiencies in knowledge and understanding. There may be some deficiencies in the presentation and the referencing of the work. F (59%& below): There is an attempt to address the question but no real evidence of any specific structure. There is evidence of a lack of reading around the subject matter, leading to inconsistencies. Some attempt at descriptive argument but no real evidence of a coherent structure leading to a conclusion. There is confusion in the argument, leading to a less than satisfactory answer/ discussion. Referencing is either not in existence or inconsistent throughout. Page 10 of 11 ECO501 Business Economics Analysis & Forecasting

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