1 / 33

Addressing non-CO 2 effects of aviation

Addressing non-CO 2 effects of aviation. Volker Grewe DLR-Institute for Atmospheric Physics TU Delft, Chair for Climate Effects of Aviation ECATS Vice-Chair. > ICSA Aviation Decarbonization Forum 12 Feb 2019> V. Grewe • Non-CO2 effects of Aviation. Air traffic emissions at cruise.

rstegall
Télécharger la présentation

Addressing non-CO 2 effects of aviation

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. > ICSA Aviation Decarbonization Forum 12 Feb 2019> V. Grewe • Non-CO2 effects of Aviation Addressing non-CO2 effects of aviation Volker Grewe DLR-Institute forAtmosphericPhysics TU Delft, ChairforClimateEffectsof Aviation ECATS Vice-Chair

  2. > ICSA Aviation Decarbonization Forum 12 Feb 2019> V. Grewe • Non-CO2 effects of Aviation Air traffic emissions at cruise IPCC (1999)

  3. > ICSA Aviation Decarbonization Forum 12 Feb 2019> V. Grewe • Non-CO2 effects of Aviation Climateimpacts via non-CO2effects Air chemistry ozone methane IPCC (1999) Contrails Aerosols andeffects on clouds Popovicheva et al. (2004)

  4. > ICSA Aviation Decarbonization Forum 12 Feb 2019> V. Grewe • Non-CO2 effects of Aviation Atmospheric effects of aviation CO2 H2O NOx VOC, CO SO2 Particles Emissions Clouds CO2 H2O CH4 O3 Contrails Particles Changes in atmospheric composition Direct aerosol effect Climate forcings Direct greenhouse gases Indirect greenhouse gases Clouds Climate change

  5. > ICSA Aviation Decarbonization Forum 12 Feb 2019> V. Grewe • Non-CO2 effects of Aviation RadiativeForcing in 2005 fromhistoricalaviationemission Carbon Dioxide, NOxemissions, andcontrailcirrusaremaincontributorstoaviationinduced RF. Level of Scientific Understanding (LoSU) variesbetween individual effects Grewe et al. (2017) Data arebased on Lee et al (2009) with update fromvariousmorerecentpublications

  6. > ICSA Aviation Decarbonization Forum 12 Feb 2019> V. Grewe • Non-CO2 effects of Aviation Contrailsand Contrail-Cirrus Interaction Line-shaped Contrails

  7. > ICSA Aviation Decarbonization Forum 12 Feb 2019> V. Grewe • Non-CO2 effects of Aviation How do contrails form? Formation depends on • Atmospheric condition Temperature/Humidity • Too dry/warm  No contrails • Too humid/cold  Cirrus already exists humid Cirrus noclouds dry cold warm

  8. > ICSA Aviation Decarbonization Forum 12 Feb 2019> V. Grewe • Non-CO2 effects of Aviation Contrail Dimension also depends on aircraft type (weightbasicallycontrollsthestrenghtofvortex Ice crystal number concentrations A380 CRJ Unterstraßer et al., 2014

  9. Pressure [hPa] Latitude > ICSA Aviation Decarbonization Forum 12 Feb 2019> V. Grewe • Non-CO2 effects of Aviation Where can contrails form? Potential contrail coverage = Maximum coverage by contrails 18 km 12 km 5 km Isolines: Temperature [K] Marquart et al., 2002

  10. > ICSA Aviation Decarbonization Forum 12 Feb 2019> V. Grewe • Non-CO2 effects of Aviation Chemistry Air chemistry Producesozone Destroysmethane

  11. > ICSA Aviation Decarbonization Forum 12 Feb 2019> V. Grewe • Non-CO2 effects of Aviation Chemical regimes for methane loss Ozone O3+hv O+O2 O+H2O 2 OH NOx • Methaneloss Methane NO+HO2NO2+OH • Reducedozoneproduction • Stratosphericwatervapour • Ozoneproduction • Methaneloss Grewe et al. (2017)

  12. > ICSA Aviation Decarbonization Forum 12 Feb 2019> V. Grewe • Non-CO2 effects of Aviation Aerosols impact on cloudsis still uncertain ! • Two potential effectsareidentified • Impact on iceclouds (cirrus) • Impact on lowleveltropicalclouds • All resultsdepend on the initial characteristicsofsootandsulphuremissions: • Additional cirrusformsonlyiftheemittedsoothastheabilitytoactasgoodicenucleii. • Low levelcloudsarealteredbysulphatedropletonlyifthefuelcontainsenoughsulphurand a large numberofverysmallparticlesareemitted. • Botheffects, iftheyoccur, potentially cool! • Currentlypoorunderstanding!

  13. > ICSA Aviation Decarbonization Forum 12 Feb 2019> V. Grewe • Non-CO2 effects of Aviation Aviation´simpact on global mean 2m-temperature • Main contributors : • CO2 • Contrails • NOx (O3and CH4) ~0.03 K von 0.7 K  5% PMO=„Primary modeozone“ Resultsfromless CH4 less HO2 less O3production Air trafficcontributestoclimatechangebyroughly 5%.

  14. > ICSA Aviation Decarbonization Forum 12 Feb 2019> V. Grewe • Non-CO2 effects of Aviation Mitigatingtheclimateimpactofaviation: Somerecentstudies • TechnologicalMeasures: • Fuel efficiency • Emission reduction • Alternative fuels • OperationalMeasures: • Avoiding climate sensitive regions • Intermediate Stop Operations • Climate restricted airspaces • EconomicalMeasures • Market-Based Measures • Carbon off-setting • Climate – Charged Areas

  15. > ICSA Aviation Decarbonization Forum 12 Feb 2019> V. Grewe • Non-CO2 effects of Aviation DLR-Project CATS: ClimateCompatible Air Transport System Focus on a long-range aircraft =AirClim Koch et al., 2011 Dahlmann et al. 2016

  16. DLR.de • Chart 16 > ICSA Aviation Decarbonization Forum 12 Feb 2019> V. Grewe • Non-CO2 effects of Aviation CATS-optimisationapproach • Variation of initial cruise altitudeandspeed • Optimal relation between costs and climate • Definition of new design point • Optimisation of the new aircraft for this new design point Koch, 2013

  17. > ICSA Aviation Decarbonization Forum 12 Feb 2019> V. Grewe • Non-CO2 effects of Aviation A330: Potential of a climatechangereduction: CATS-results Variation in speed an cruise altitude 30% Reduction in climatechange with 5% increase in costs 64% Reduction in climatechange with 32% increase in costs (w/o adaptionofaircraft) (Koch et al., 2011; Dahlmann et al, 2016) (Dahlmann, 2012)

  18. > ICSA Aviation Decarbonization Forum 12 Feb 2019> V. Grewe • Non-CO2 effects of Aviation CATS Final results Cumulative potential for all routes operated by redesigned A/C Max Mach 0.775 / Max Altitude 10500m Redesigned A/C considerably improves climate impact mitigation potential and cost penalty Koch (2012)

  19. B A > ICSA Aviation Decarbonization Forum 12 Feb 2019> V. Grewe • Non-CO2 effects of Aviation Different weathersituations: Evolution of aircraft NOx Weather type #3 "Weakand tiltedjet" Whathappens if an aircraft emits NOx at location A compared to location B?

  20. Evolution of O3 [ppt] following a NOx pulse A: 250hPa, 40°N, 60°W, 12 UTC B: 250hPa, 40°N, 30°W, 12 UTC > ICSA Aviation Decarbonization Forum 12 Feb 2019> V. Grewe • Non-CO2 effects of Aviation Pressure [hPa] Change in NOx and Ozone mass EMAC-Symposium 14.-16. Februar 2012

  21. > ICSA Aviation Decarbonization Forum 12 Feb 2019> V. Grewe • Non-CO2 effects of Aviation Avoidingclimate sensitive regions: The approach Traffic scenario: Roughly 800 North AtlanticFlights Respresentativeweathersituations Climatologybased on Irvine et al. (2013) Climate-Change Functions Contrails, O3, CH4, H2O, CO2 Traffic optimisation: Withrespettocostsandclimate

  22. > ICSA Aviation Decarbonization Forum 12 Feb 2019> V. Grewe • Non-CO2 effects of Aviation Climatologybased on 8 representativeweatherpattern • Very flat Pareto-Front  Large benefits at low costs • Market based measures would enable climate optimised routing, if non-CO2 effects were taken into account Grewe et al. (2017)

  23. DLR.de • Chart 23 > ICSA Aviation Decarbonization Forum 12 Feb 2019> V. Grewe • Non-CO2 effects of Aviation Air trafficmanagementforenvironment: SESAR/H2020-Project ATM4E SWIM Currentsituation Matthes et al. (2017) ATM4E Overview > Sigrun Matthes, DLR > Intermediate Review, 18 May 2017

  24. DLR.de • Chart 24 > ICSA Aviation Decarbonization Forum 12 Feb 2019> V. Grewe • Non-CO2 effects of Aviation Air trafficmanagementforenvironment: SESAR/H2020-Project ATM4E SWIM Contributionof ATM4E Matthes et al. (2017) ATM4E Overview > Sigrun Matthes, DLR > Intermediate Review, 18 May 2017

  25. > ICSA Aviation Decarbonization Forum 12 Feb 2019> V. Grewe • Non-CO2 effects of Aviation Waystoinclude non-CO2-effetcs Accounting for non CO2-effects on a flight-by-flightbasis -> Conversioninto eq.CO2. Simple Factor Simple factor: Not recommended! Distance/Latitude: Hassomeatmosphericresponsesincluded Altitude: Importantfactor! Clim-CCF: Quitegood in a climatologicalmanner, e.g. foraircraft design, … Weather-CCF: Best option, still requiressignificantdevelopments Depending on Distance Depending on Latitude Depending on Altitude ClimatologicalClimate-Change Functions Data, Effort Benefit Weather-relatedClimate-Change Functions Work in progress: Dahlmann et al., Niklass et al.

  26. > ICSA Aviation Decarbonization Forum 12 Feb 2019> V. Grewe • Non-CO2 effects of Aviation Howtouseequivalent CO2? • Definition: • The amountof CO2-emission, whichleadstothe same climatechangeastheemissionof 1 kg oftheregarded non-CO2emission. Sumof all CO2 Equivalents Equivalent CO2 Emission CO2 Emission

  27. > ICSA Aviation Decarbonization Forum 12 Feb 2019> V. Grewe • Non-CO2 effects of Aviation Meanclimateimpact per flowndistancefor individual components on thebasisofonelong-range aircraft H2O CO2 Contrails 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.25 0.15 0.1 NOx O3 CH4 0.3 -0.8 0.5 0.0 -0.2 0.8 Different colorcoding ! Dahlmann et al. in prep

  28. > ICSA Aviation Decarbonization Forum 12 Feb 2019> V. Grewe • Non-CO2 effects of Aviation CO2-Equivalents for individual componentsforonelongrangeaircraft = CO2 H2O Contrails 3 1 NOx=O3+CH4+PMO O3 CH4 2.5 -5 -2 5 Different colorcoding ! Dahlmann et al. in prep

  29. > ICSA Aviation Decarbonization Forum 12 Feb 2019> V. Grewe • Non-CO2 effects of Aviation Examplesfor CO2Equivalents • Distancedependingeq. CO2 forNOx • Long-range 2-aisle aircraft • with a typlicalflightpattern (2006) • otheraircraftmightlook different • Dahlmann et al. (in prep) CO2Equivalent ForNOxEmissions Distance 103 km • NOx–OzoneClimate Change Function • Such mapsmightbepartoftheweather-forecasts • Multipliedwithemissionsalong a flighttrackandaccumulated → equivalent CO2 Grewe et al. (2014)

  30. > ICSA Aviation Decarbonization Forum 12 Feb 2019> V. Grewe • Non-CO2 effects of Aviation Other waystoinclude non-CO2-effetcs Accounting for non CO2-effects on a flight-by-flightbasis → Conversioninto eq.CO2. Simple Factor • Non-CO2effectsshow a complexpicture • Various possibilities to extract equivalents for non-CO2-effects • Requirements: • Allowforfuturetechnologicaladvancements • Regional different effects • Altitudeeffects • Flight distance • Tradeoffbetweenaccuracyandeffort Depending on Distance Depending on Latitude Depending on Altitude ClimatologicalClimate-Change Functions Data, Effort Benefit Weather-relatedClimate-Change Functions Work in progress: Dahlmann et al., Niklass et al.

  31. > ICSA Aviation Decarbonization Forum 12 Feb 2019> V. Grewe • Non-CO2 effects of Aviation Whyare non-CO2-effects important? • Large CO2emissionreduction • Large increase in Non-CO2effects Future withcurrenttechnology CORSIA • Small change in temperaturebecauseof • CO2accumulation • Large increase in Non-CO2effects Reducing Non-CO2effectsoffer a possibilitytoreduceaviation‘sclimateimpact

  32. > ICSA Aviation Decarbonization Forum 12 Feb 2019> V. Grewe • Non-CO2 effects of Aviation Summary • Enhanced knowledge on the processes related to aviation emissions. • More than 50% of the climate impact from aviation due to non-CO2 effects. • Uncertainties remain, but may be better understood. • This allows a zooming in: • From effects of global aviation to effects of regional emissions • From global climate change to regional temperature changes • More mitigation studies, which include non-CO2 effects. • Climate-sensitive areas could substantially reduce the climate impact of aviation at low cost increase. • Outlook: Forecasting of non-CO2 effects on a daily basis.

  33. Thank you for your attention Thank you for your attention

More Related