'Ensemble forecasts' diaporamas de présentation

VERIFICATION OF OPERATIONAL PROBABILISTIC & ENSEMBLE FORECASTS

Zoltan Toth Environmental Modeling Center NOAA/NWS/NCEP Ackn.: Yuejian Zhu, Olivier Talagrand (1) , Steve Lord, Geoff DiMego, John Huddleston (1) : Ecole Normale Superior and LMD, Paris, France http://wwwt.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/ens/index.html.

808 views • 63 slides

Ensemble-based prediction and diagnostics during the PREDICT field experiment

Ensemble-based prediction and diagnostics during the PREDICT field experiment. Sharan Majumdar (RSMAS / U. Miami) Ryan Torn (SUNY at Albany ) Fuqing Zhang (Penn State) Acknowledgments: all PREDICT PIs and Forecasters. 65 th IHC, Miami, FL. 03/01/11. The problem.

707 views • 61 slides

Balaji Rajagopalan Katrina Grantz CIVIL, ENVIRONMENTAL AND ARCHITECTURAL ENGINEERING DEPARTMENT

Ensemble forecasts of streamflows using large-scale climate information : applications to the trcukee-carson basin. Balaji Rajagopalan Katrina Grantz CIVIL, ENVIRONMENTAL AND ARCHITECTURAL ENGINEERING DEPARTMENT UNIVERSITY OF COLORADO AT BOULDER NCAR/ESIG Spring 2004. Inter-decadal. Climate.

710 views • 60 slides

Some ideas for Ensemble Kalman Filter

Some ideas for Ensemble Kalman Filter. Former students and Eugenia Kalnay UMCP Acknowledgements: UMD Chaos-Weather Group : Brian Hunt, Istvan Szunyogh, Ed Ott and Jim Yorke, Kayo Ide, and students Former students : Shu-Chih Yang, Takemasa Miyoshi, Hong Li, Junjie Liu, Chris Danforth

802 views • 57 slides

Numerical Forecast Models

Numerical Forecast Models. For more info: www.meted.ucar.edu/nwp/pcu1/ic2/index.htm. The Models. WRF (currently the NAM) US model output is at NCEP or NCAR-RAP GFS (NCEP) RUC (NCEP) ECMWF (Europe) www.ecmwf.int/ NoGaps (Navy) www.nwmangum.com/NOGAPS.phtml

673 views • 52 slides

Water, Weather and Climate in Our Future: What Can We Know?

602 views • 45 slides

Introduction to the HWRF-based Ensemble Prediction System

Introduction to the HWRF-based Ensemble Prediction System. Zhan Zhang and HWRF Team. Outline. Introduction to ensemble prediction system What and why ensemble prediction Approaches to ensemble prediction Hurricane ensemble prediction HWRF-based EPS Methodology;

574 views • 36 slides

Developments in the Use of Short and Medium-Range Ensembles at the Met Office

453 views • 34 slides

The NOAA Operational Numerical Guidance System: Meeting the WoF and WRN Challenge

William. M. Lapenta Acting Director Environmental Modeling Center NOAA/NWS/NCEP Geoff DiMego , John Derber , Yuejian Zhu , Hendrik Tolman , Vijay Tallapragada, Shrinivas Moorthi , Mike Ek , Mark Iredell , Suru Saha . The NOAA Operational Numerical Guidance System:

417 views • 28 slides

March 21, 2011

Current CBRFC Water Supply Forecast Methodology. March 21, 2011. Kevin Werner NWS Colorado Basin River Forecast Center. Colorado Basin River Forecast Center. One of 13 River Forecast Centers Established in the 1940s for water supply forecasting Three primary missions:

430 views • 27 slides

Assimilating satellite cloud information with an Ensemble Kalman Filter at the convective scale

Annika Schomburg , Christoph Schraff, Hendrik Reich, Roland Potthast. Assimilating satellite cloud information with an Ensemble Kalman Filter at the convective scale. EnKF workshop 18-22 May 2014, Buffalo. Motivation: Weather situation 23 October 2012.

461 views • 26 slides

ECMWF Forecasting System - Overview

440 views • 26 slides

Predicting the performance of climate predictions Chris Ferro (University of Exeter)

Predicting the performance of climate predictions Chris Ferro (University of Exeter) Tom Fricker , Fredi Otto, Emma Suckling. 13th EMS Annual Meeting and 11th ECAM (10 September 2013, Reading, UK). Performance-based arguments.

370 views • 22 slides

Probabilistic Verification of Ensemble Forecasts of Tropical Cyclogenesis

Probabilistic Verification of Ensemble Forecasts of Tropical Cyclogenesis. Sharanya J. Majumdar RSMAS / University of Miami Ryan D. Torn SUNY at Albany IHC / Tropical Cyclone Research Forum, 3/6/13. How to define a TC in a model?.

331 views • 18 slides

What is a good ensemble forecast? Chris Ferro University of Exeter, UK

What is a good ensemble forecast? Chris Ferro University of Exeter, UK With thanks to Tom Fricker , Keith Mitchell, Stefan Siegert , David Stephenson, Robin Williams. What are ensemble forecasts?.

325 views • 18 slides

Priority Project KENDA Daniel Leuenberger MeteoSwiss, Zurich, Switzerland COSMO GM 2009, Offenbach

Statistical Characteristics of High-Resolution COSMO Ensemble Forecasts in view of Data Assimilation. Priority Project KENDA Daniel Leuenberger MeteoSwiss, Zurich, Switzerland COSMO GM 2009, Offenbach. Observation term. Background term. Introduction I.

342 views • 18 slides

Aaron Johnson and Xuguang Wang

Verification and calibration of probabilistic precipitation forecasts derived from neighborhood and object based methods for a convection-allowing ensemble. Aaron Johnson and Xuguang Wang School of Meteorology and Center for Analysis and Prediction of Storms

296 views • 18 slides

The influence of the stratosphere on tropospheric circulation and implications for forecasting

270 views • 16 slides

EurEPS

309 views • 16 slides

Revisit Lorenz 1982 using ECMWF and NCEP EPS

262 views • 14 slides