Paul Holper, CSIRO Marine & Atmospheric Research Sustainable Futures for TAFE Gordon TAFE, Geelong, 9 May 2008

1. Sustainable Environment – Climate change and Victorian infrastructure Paul Holper, CSIRO Marine & Atmospheric Research Sustainable Futures for TAFE Gordon TAFE, Geelong, 9 May 2008

2. Outline Climate change – new projections for Australia Infrastructure & climate change Adapting to climate change

3. Climate change in Australia • The most comprehensive report on climate change for Australia • Detailed 148 page technical report with 291 scientific references. Over 50 authors, contributors, reviewers and editors. • 8-page brochure, impacts brochure, CD • CSIRO-Bureau of Meteorology (2007) • Australian Climate Change Science Program • Australian Greenhouse Office, DEWR www.climatechangeinaustralia.gov.au

5. Observed changes – temperature

6. Observed changes – rainfall

7. Global climate change projections

8. Projected warming in 2030: 50 percentile, A1B ºC A1B mid-range scenario

9. Chance of at least 1, 2, 3 or 4°C warming

10. Temperature projections to 2100

11. Victoria: 2050, high emissions, best estimate • Temperature

12. Victoria: 2050, high emissions, best estimate • Rainfall

13. Changes to Melbourne

14. Impacts of climate change • Australia is already experiencing impacts from recent climate change • increasing stresses on water supply and agriculture, • changed natural ecosystems • reduced seasonal snow cover • Ongoing vulnerability to extreme events • substantial economic losses caused by droughts, floods, fire, tropical cyclones and hail

15. Likely future impacts • More heat waves, fires, floods, droughts and storm surges. More intense cyclones and hail storms. • Water security problems to intensify by 2030 in southern and eastern Australia • Significant loss of biodiversity to occur by 2020 at sites including the Great Barrier Reef and Queensland Wet Tropics • Increased risks to major infrastructure

16. Infrastructure & climate change: Risk assessment for Victoria

17. Infrastructure study: Sectors studied WaterStorage reservoirs, waterways and irrigation channels; reticulated sewage systems, trunk sewers and treatment plants; and stormwater drains and land prone to flooding. PowerElectrical power generation and transmission to substations; gas and oil extraction, refining and distribution networks. TelecommunicationsFixed line networks, including trunk lines to exchanges; and mobile network towers. TransportRoads, railway lines, tunnels, bridges, airports, ports, including jetties, piers and seawalls. BuildingsResidential, commercial, industrial buildings and storage structures; parks, community and public space facilities.

18. Climate variables considered Extreme maximum temperature, and length of hot spells Annual rainfall Extreme daily rainfall, influencing flood levels Available moisture Annual average relative humidity Variation in wet and dry spells Intensity of extreme winds Fire-weather frequency and intensity Solar radiation levels and exposure Sea-level rise

19. Infrastructure sensitivity

20. Water infrastructure – main risks More extreme daily rainfall events would affect capacity and maintenance of storm water, drainage and sewer infrastructure. Increased risk of major bushfires in the catchments of dams and reservoirs will threaten water quality and availability. Increased ground movement and changes in groundwater could accelerate degradation of materials and structural integrity of water supply, sewer and stormwater pipelines. Lower rainfall is likely to lead to water shortages, exacerbated by higher temperatures and increased demand from a growing population.

21. Building infrastructure – main risks Buildings affected by increased frequency and intensity of extreme rainfall and wind. Coastal buildings and facilities at risk from storm surges worsened by higher sea level. Increases in bushfire frequency and intensity pose threats to buildings and structures. Drier conditions would lead to increased ground movement and changes in groundwater. Higher temperatures and more solar radiation could amplify degradation of materials.

22. Energy infrastructure – main risks Increased frequency and intensity of extreme storm events would damage transmission infrastructure. Increased wind and lightning could damage transmission lines. More storm activity would increase maintenance costs and disrupt services. Coastal and offshore infrastructure at risk from increases in storm surge, wind, flooding and wave events. Sea level rise would worsen the problem. Extremeheatwaves are likely to increase peak demand for electricity. Decrease in annual rainfall may reduce power supply capacity of hydroelectric dams and water supply for cooling power stations. Increase in extreme wind events likely to extend shutdown periods for wind farms.

23. Transport infrastructure – main risks More extreme rainfall events would damage road, rail, bridge, airport, port and, especially, tunnel infrastructure. Rail, bridges, airports and ports are susceptible to extreme winds. Ports and coastal infrastructure at risk from storm surges; sea level rise will add to the problem. Increased ground movement and changes in groundwater would accelerate degradation of materials, structures and foundations. Increased temperature and solar radiation could reduce the life of asphalt on road surfaces and airport tarmacs. Higher temperatures stress steel in bridges and rail tracks.

24. Adapting to climate change • Include climate change as a risk to be considered • Form a team and analyse the likely impacts. Include consequential impacts, e.g. heatwaves & blackouts; storms, floods & traffic disruption, greater use of public transport • Prioritise actions • Take action!

25. Conclusions • Climate change is underway – warmer and drier conditions are expected, with more extreme events. • Climate change will affect infrastructure; water infrastructure is particularly vulnerable in Victoria. • Recognition of the risks is a first step towards better planning of new infrastructure investments and reducing damage to existing infrastructure. • A risk management approach has both short-term (improved planning, lower insurance premiums) and longer-term benefits (improved resilience, lower maintenance costs).

26. www.climatechangeinaustralia.gov.au www.greenhouse.vic.gov.au Paul HolperCSIRO Marine & Atmospheric Research 03 9239 4661paul.holper@csiro.au

27. Contact Us Phone: 1300 363 400 or +61 3 9545 2176 Email: enquiries@csiro.au Web: www.csiro.au Thank you Paul HolperCSIRO Marine & Atmospheric Research 03 9239 4661paul.holper@csiro.au