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Fall 2011 Economic Survey

The Fall 2011 Economic Survey provides comprehensive insights from 33 CEBI members and 26 non-members regarding industry trends and company performance. Key findings indicate a 74% composite forecast for 2011, with expectations for 2012 showing signs of recovery and innovation. Challenges such as price pressures and market competition are noted, alongside strategies for growth, including technology investment and customer service focus. The report concludes with the 2012 Confidence Index at 88 and anticipated growth of 10% in the coming years.

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Fall 2011 Economic Survey

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  1. Fall 2011 Economic Survey

  2. Participation • 33 CEBI Members • 26 Non-Members

  3. Industry Distribution

  4. Company Size

  5. Expected 2011 Results

  6. 2012 Outlook

  7. 2013 Expectations

  8. Composite

  9. 74% 26% 2011 Forecast (vs. 2010)

  10. 90% 10% 2012 Forecast (vs. 2011)

  11. Negative Impacts 23 companies w/Flat or Down 2011 Earnings Other:Price Pressure Raw Mtl. Costs Federal Govt. State Budgets < New Prod Dev

  12. Expected Upturn Quarter

  13. Earnings Improvement Factors Other: New Products/Services New Markets Expand Geography Cap. Exp. – SB Loan Concierge Service

  14. 45% 55% Likelihood of Recession (next 2-3 quarters) 2012 Avg. or Better = 76% 2013 Avg. or Better = 76%

  15. What Have You Learned? • Ignore Media & Govt. – Follow your own indicators • Watch for changes, good or bad = opportunities • Cull the Herd – bottom 10% • Act sooner, rather than later • Acquisition of weaker competitors • Pay down debt, don’t count on banks, cash is king • In Information Age, things change faster than ever • Conservative capital and expense plans, watch receivables, fixed costs

  16. What Have You Learned? • Improve productivity through technology • Sales cycles lengthen – step up sales activity • Watch inventories, but don’t understock (recovery) • Invest in innovation, R&D • Maintain customer service performance

  17. CEBI Helped • Health care cost reduction • Explore different channels, including Web • Product/service diversification • Peer lending, heads-up on tightening credit • Focus on systems and processes • Members’ perspective on “real” economy • Cost reduction strategies • Strategies for dealing with banks

  18. Summary • “CEBI 2012 Confidence Index” = .88 (38 up, 5 dn) • “CEBI 2012 Growth Index” Mean = +10% • “CEBI 2012 Profit Index” Mean = +10%

  19. Fall 2011 Economic Survey

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