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Understanding the Vulnerability of the Ocean Biological Pump to Climate Change

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tassos
39 diapositives · 503 Views · Sep 22, 2014

This analysis discusses the vulnerability of the ocean biological pump, a crucial component of the oceanic carbon cycle. It examines how biological activity—primarily by pico-autotrophs, pico-heterotrophs, and various phytoplankton—contributes to carbon dioxide dynamics and overall ecosystem health. The study highlights key factors influencing primary production, respiration rates, and carbon export. It also explores the impacts of climate change, including temperature fluctuations, pH changes, and stratification effects, on biological productivity and the ocean's role as a carbon sink.

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  1. Vulnerability of the ocean biological pumpCorinne Le QuéréUniversity of East Anglia and British Antarctic Survey

  2. biological activity CO2 + H2O + CO2-3 2HCO-3 33 11 11 physical transport oceanic carbon cycle numbers in PgC/yr atmosphere 90 CO2 chemical reactions 45 34 ocean

  3. biological activity atmosphere surface 100 m mixed layer depth

  4. biological activity atmosphere 100 m real surface

  5. Respiration 34 PgC/y bacteria pico-heterotrophs pico-autotrophs Primary Production 45 PgC/y N2-fixers phyto-plankton calcifiers DMS-producers mixed silicifiers Export 11 PgC/y proto zoo-plankton meso macro Ecosystem composition

  6. what controls export?

  7. Primary Production 45 PgC/y what they do pico-autotrophs N2-fixers phyto-plankton calcifiers DMS-producers mixed silicifiers

  8. what they do pico-autotrophs N2-fixers these bloom phyto-plankton calcifiers DMS-producers mixed silicifiers

  9. what they do pico-autotrophs N2-fixers these form shells phyto-plankton calcifiers DMS-producers mixed silicifiers

  10. what they do pico-autotrophs N2-fixers these respond to pH phyto-plankton calcifiers DMS-producers mixed silicifiers

  11. what they do pico-autotrophs N2-fixers these float phyto-plankton calcifiers DMS-producers mixed silicifiers

  12. what they need pico-autotrophs N2-fixers phyto-plankton calcifiers DMS-producers mixed silicifiers

  13. Respiration 34 PgC/y bacteria pico-heterotrophs proto zoo-plankton meso macro what they do

  14. what they do bacteria pico-heterotrophs these control blooms proto zoo-plankton meso macro

  15. what they do bacteria pico-heterotrophs these produce big feacal pellets proto zoo-plankton meso macro

  16. what they need bacteria pico-heterotrophs proto zoo-plankton meso macro

  17. time scale phytoplankton turnover time: 1 week bacterial respiration: 1 day zooplankton turnover time: 1-many weeks sinking rate: 50 m/day

  18. a few days a few +1 days time scale

  19. TEMPERATURE RESPONSE Q10=3.0 Primary Production 45 PgC/y Q10=1.9 Q10=2.2 Export 11 PgC/y HOT SPOTS: Respiration 34 PgC/y bacteria pico-heterotrophs pico-autotrophs N2-fixers phyto-plankton calcifiers DMS-producers mixed silicifiers proto zoo-plankton meso macro

  20. Primary Production 45 PgC/y Export 11 PgC/y HOT SPOTS: pH RESPONSE Respiration 34 PgC/y bacteria pico-heterotrophs pico-autotrophs N2-fixers phyto-plankton reduced ballast DMS-producers mixed silicifiers proto zoo-plankton meso macro

  21. Primary Production 45 PgC/y Export 11 PgC/y HOT SPOTS: RESPONSE TO STRATIFICATION Respiration 34 PgC/y bacteria pico-heterotrophs pico-autotrophs N2-fixers phyto-plankton calcifiers DMS-producers mixed silicifiers ? proto zoo-plankton meso macro

  22. biological activity CO2 + H2O + CO2-3 2HCO-3 33 11 11 physical transport oceanic carbon cycle numbers in PgC/yr atmosphere 90 CO2 chemical reactions 45 34 ocean

  23. CO2 sink (PgC/y) 0 4 10 Export (PgC/y) 14 in one decade

  24. what controls export? the ecosystem composition and the physical transport

  25. what controls export in models? the ecosystem composition = the physical transport

  26. models air-sea fluxes PO4 Phyto DOC Zoo POC export

  27. C L I M A T E R E S P O NS E O F OCE A N I C U PT A KE S a r mi e nto M ate a r a n d J o os e t a l. et a l. (1 9 9 8 ) H i r s t (1 9 9 9 ) ( 19 9 9 ) T i me S p a n 19 9 0 - 20 6 5 18 5 0 - 210 0 17 6 5 - 210 0 W a rm i n g E f f e ct -11 % -1 2 % -1 3 % Anthropogenic Effect - 2 2% -1 0 % - 3 % B iolo gi cal Pump + 2 4 % + 8 % + 6 % T O TA L - 9 % -1 4 % -1 0 % (slide adapted from J. Sarmiento)

  28. observations?

  29. Global changes in Atmospheric Potential Oxygen models only

  30. Global changes in Atmospheric Potential Oxygen Slide not available because the data is not published. APO data shows at least 2x more variability than the models.

  31. Interannual chla variability (mgChl/m3) PO4 Fe PO4 Calcifiers DOC Zoo POC export Observations (SeaWiFS) NPZD PISCES-T DGOM

  32. Interannual chla variability (percent) Observations (SeaWiFS) NPZD PISCES-T DGOM

  33. model projection of climate change in 2060 temperature mixed layer depth ice cover

  34. Fe PO4 Calcifiers Impact of climate change on the CO2 sink in 2060 (mol/m2/y) (Preliminary result from E. T. Buitenhuis)

  35. what comes now?

  36. evolution of model results truth (what is the vulnerability of the marine biological pump?) illusion time

  37. evolution of model results truth (what is the vulnerability of the marine biological pump?) illusion chaos time

  38. ocean biogeochemistry models evolution of model results truth (what is the vulnerability of the marine biological pump?) relief illusion chaos time

  39. thanks to Erik T. Buitenhuis and Olivier Aumont for providing model codes and results