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Analysis of North Korean Nuclear Crisis

Analysis of North Korean Nuclear Crisis. Lecture Note for Pease Studies II November 15, 2006 Sung Chull Kim Hiroshima Peace institute. Preliminary questions. What is the nature of North Korean problem, that is, the nuclear weapons development? Why has North Korea conducted nuclear test?

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Analysis of North Korean Nuclear Crisis

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  1. Analysis of North Korean Nuclear Crisis Lecture Note for Pease Studies II November 15, 2006 Sung Chull Kim Hiroshima Peace institute

  2. Preliminary questions • What is the nature of North Korean problem, that is, the nuclear weapons development? • Why has North Korea conducted nuclear test? • What would be a solution to the problem?

  3. North Korea in Northeast Asia

  4. North Korea Profile • Population: 22,697,553 (July 2004 est.) • Population growth rate: 0.98% (2004 est.) • Life expectancy at birth: total population: 71.08 years, male: 68.38 years, female: 73.92 years (2004 est.) • Natural resources: coal, lead, tungsten, zinc, graphite, magnesite, iron ore, copper, gold (no oil or natural gas) • Land use: arable land 20.76% • Food shortage: around 2million tons per year

  5. Nature of North Korean nuclear crisis and nuclear test * On October 9, 2006, North Korea conducted nuclear test. • Reflection of North Korea’s perceived insecurity in the post-Cold War period (Both domestic and international)

  6. Background of the crisis (international and domestic) • For North Korea, the U.S. is the “key” to solve all the diplomatic problems. (North Korea has asked the U.S. to have bilateral talks and lift of financial sanctions as a precondition to return to the Six-Party Talks.) • National crisis erupted in junction with the collapse of socialism in Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union. - shortage of energy, foreign currency, food - death of Kim Il Sung in 1994

  7. Kim Il Sung’s death and transfer of power to Kim Jong-il in 1994

  8. “Arduous March”

  9. Transitions for survival

  10. (US sanctions on North Korea) • Domestic laws and regulations has denied since 1953 - trade (Trading with Enemy Act, Commercial Control List) - any loans or credit facilities from international financial institutions such as the IMF and the World Bank - the status of “beneficiary developing country” under the U.S. Generalized System of Preference - assistance from Peace Corps programs - approval for application to investment risk insurance programs in the Overseas Private Investment Corporation • a grant from U.S. agricultural commodities to developing and least developed countries 2005: financial sanction on North Korean bank account in Macao (Banco Delta Aisa)

  11. Chronology of Nuclear Crises • 1991: South-North Basic Agreement • 1992: South-North Joint Declaration of the Denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula 1. no nuclear weapons 2. use of nuclear energy solely for peaceful purpose 3. no nuclear reprocessing, no uranium enrichment

  12. Chronology, continue • 1992: IAEA inspects nuclear facility at Yongbyon and concludes there are inconsistencies between North Korea's declaration and inspection results (see the map)/ • 1993: IAEA request special inspection on the two unreported, suspect, facilities (waste storages)/ North Korea’s rejection • 1993: North Korea’s exit of NPT and declaration of state of semi-war (the 1st nuclear crisis) • 1994: Former President Carter visits North Korea; Kim Il Sung offers to freeze North Korea's nuclear program in return for high-level talks between the U.S. and North Korea. • 1994: U.S. and North Korea conclude the Geneva Agreed Framework. (see next)

  13. (Agreed Framework, Oct. 1994) • Freeze of nuclear facilities: NK’s freeze of graphite-moderated reactors and related facilities, being compensated by US’ arrangement of light-water reactor (LWR) power plants with a generating capacity of 2,000 MW(e) by 2003 • Dismantlement: Dismantlement of the frozen facilities, when the LWR project is completed • Normalization: US and NK move toward full normalization of political and economic relations • In 1995, Korean Peninsula Energy Development Organization (KEDO) was established for the construction of two light-water nuclear reactors in North Korea.

  14. Chronology, continue • 2000: summit between South and North Koreas (Kim Dae-jung and Kim Jong Il), “Joint Declaration” • 2002: summit between Japan and North Korea (Koizumi Junichiro and Kim Jong Il), “Pyongyang Declaration” • 2002: North Korea confesses its nuclear project based on highly enriched uranium (HEU) to James Kelly, special envoy from the United States (the 2nd nuclear crisis) • 2002: KEDO decides the stop of sending of heavy oil to North Korea. • 2002: North Korea expels IAEA inspection teams. • 2003: North Korea declares the exit from NPT. • 2005: declaration of nuclear state status • 2005: Joint Statement of the 4th Round of the Six-Party Talks (see next) • 2005: dissolution of KEDO • 2006: missile launches • 2006: underground nuclear test

  15. Quest for solution: Six-Party Talks • Participants: North Korea, China, Russia, Japan, South Korea, US - China’s active role for moderating especially the differences between North Korea and Japan Joint Statement of the 4th Six-Party talks: 19th Sept. 2005 • - Verifiable denuclearization of the Korean peninsula, DPRK’s abandoning of nuclear weapons and nuclear programs; US of no intention of invasion, 1992 Joint Declaration of the Denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula as the benchmark, future discussion about provision of light water reactor • - abiding the Charter of UN and recognition of norms of international relations, normalization of DPRK-US, NK-Japan relations; • - economic assistance to NK, energy aid by the five countries, power aid of 2 million kw by ROK; • - efforts for the peace and stability in Northeast Asia, peace regime talk at a separate forum; • - principle of “commitment for commitment, action for action” • But more more progress since the U.S. financial sanction in 2005. North Korea’s defiance, that is, nuclear test in October 2006

  16. United Nations sanctions • UN Security Council Resolution 1695 (adopted on July 15, 2006, in relation to North Korea’s missile launches on July 4, 2006) • condemns the test-firing of that series of missiles • calls on all member countries to prevent the transfer of missile-related technology and products to North Korea • demands North Korea to institute moratorium on missile launches. • UN Security Council Resolution 1718 (adopted on October 14, 2006, in relation to North Korea’s nuclear test on October 9, 2006) • demands no more test and suspension of all ballistic missile programs • Call on all member countries to prevent arms supply, prevent materials and technology related to nuclear and other weapons of mass destruction • freeze of funds and assets of those who supports the nuclear and weapons of mass destruction-related programs

  17. Concluding remarks • The Korean peninsular still remains as “the last remaining island of the Cold War” because of the division between two Koreas, both of which maintain heavily armed military forces. • UN Security Council’s sanctions are legitimate; but the sanctions are not the goal but a means to achieve the goal of nuclear-free Korean peninsula. • Eventually, engagement into North Korea by neighbors, especially the U.S. and Japan, will contribute to the elimination of North Korea’s nuclear weapons project.

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