Presentation Transcript

1. North Korea’s Nuclear PRogramme

   DanMUN Oct 15, 2012
2. Nuclear Weapons Operation Bravo – Castle, largest nuclear device tested in US, yield 15 mt, 1,200 times more powerful than Little Boy dropped on Hiroshima
3. The Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) Signed 1968, in force in 1972 Two pillars haves (NWS) have/nots (NNWS) Third pillar – “non haves that have” Fourth pillar - India NPT bargains Right to peaceful nuclear technology NNWS not acquire nuclear weapons IAEA safeguards Disarmament Review Conferences
4. Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) Over 2,000 nuclear tests 1945-1996 1963 PTBT only partial ban CTBT negotiated 1994-1996 Only treaty the Conference on Disarmament (CD) has negotiated that has not entered into force Functioning verification system 44 Annex II states 8 remain: China, Egypt, Iran, Israel, US (signatories) India, Pakistan, North Korea (non-signatories)
5. Worldwide nucleartestingatmospheric and underground 1948-2009 Source: CTBTO
6. 1925 The Geneva Protocol Protocol for the Prohibition of the Use in War of Asphyxiating, Poisonous or Other Gases, and of Bacteriological Methods of Warfare drawn up and signed at a conference in Geneva under the auspices of the League of Nations from 4 May to 17 June 1925 entered into force on 8 February 1928 DPRK & ROK both acceded 4 January 1989 ‘no first use’ DPRK and ROK made similar reservation:only binding regards States which signed and ratified the Protocol or acceded thereto. Cease to be binding if enemy armed forces, or armed forces of whose Allies, violate prohibitions
7. Biological and Toxin Weapons Convention (BTWC) April 10, 1972 opened for signature 1975 enteredintoforce Today 155 SPs, 16 signatories still to ratify, 23 non-parties ROK signed 4 Oct1972; ratified 25 June 1987 DPRK acceded 3 March 1987 Bans acquisition, transfer, production and storage of biological weapons 5 pages, no verification regime, no intl oversight
8. DPRK BW programme According to defectors, US and ROK govts, the North began a BW programme in the 1960s believed to have been built indigenously open source info highly variable and largely unsubstantiated white paper (2010) from ROK’s Ministry of National Defense says that DPRK able to indigenously produce causative agents of Bacillus anthracis (anthrax), Variola major (smallpox), and Vibrio cholerae(cholera) Recent assessments of BW capabilities and intentions have downgraded the threat as compared with past assessments
9. Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC) Opened for signature 13 January 1993, 130 States signed. 29 April 1997 - CWC entered into force Prohibits development, production, acquisition, stockpiling, transfer, use   Requires SPs to destroy CW & CWPFs, as well as abandoned CW Verification provisions affect military and civilian chemical industry combo of reporting requirements, routine on-site inspections of declared sites and short-notice challenge inspections Promotion of peaceful trade in chemicals and related equipment 188 SPs, 98% of global population 53,661, or 75.37%, of world's declared stockpile of 71,196mt of chemical agent destroyed 4,779 inspections since April 1997 211 CW-related and 1,103 industrial sites in 81 SPs Worldwide, 4,913 industrial facilities are liable to inspection
10. ROK’s CW Programme Declared one CWPF A stockpile of 156,000 sarin artillery shells of the ''binary" type Assessed publicly at 3,126 metric tonnes 100% destroyed in 2008 No declared stockpiles of Category 2 ‘Another State Party’ No public statements
11. DPRK CW Programme 2010 ROK white paper estimated DPRK possesses 2,500 - 5,000 metric tons of chemical weapons, including phosgene (choking), hydrogen cyanide (blood), mustard (blister), and sarin (nerve agent) 4 military bases equipped with CW; 11 facilities where CW produced and stored, and 13 locations for R&D Never signed nor acceded to the CWC US and ROK forces operate on assumption that DPRK Korea would use CW against military and civilian targets in offensive ops or in retaliation for an attack
12. North Korea Joined NPT in 1985 under Soviet pressure US maintained NW stockpile in ROK until 1991 DPRK has uranium mines with estimated 4m tons of exploitable high-quality uranium ore Information on the state and quality of mines is lacking, but estimated that ore contains approx 0.8% extractable uranium acquired first significant nuclear facilities from the Soviet Union in 1965, a small, 2-MW (thermal output), light-water-moderated, research reactor that burned HEU. subsequently upgraded to 4 MW and then 8 MW and switching to fuel enriched to 80% reactor placed under IAEA safeguards in 1977
13. North Korea nuclear weapons program dates back to the 1980s began operating facilities for uranium fabrication and conversion began construction of 200 MWe nuclear reactor and nuclear reprocessing facilities in Taechon and Yongbyon, respectively, and conducted high-explosive detonation tests In 1985 US officials announced they had intelligence that a secret nuclear reactor was being built 90 km north of Pyongyang near Yongbyon. The installation at Yongbyon had been known for eight years from official IAEA reports. In 1985, Pyongyang acceded to the NPT but refused to sign an IAEA safeguards agreement 30 January 1992 signed a nuclear safeguards agreement with the IAEA, allowing the IAEA to begin inspections in June 1992
14. North - South Talks July 1988 – ROK President Roh Tae Woo called for new efforts to promote North-South exchanges, family reunification, inter-Korean trade, and contact in international forums Roh in UNGA speech offered to discuss security matters with the North for 1st time September 1989- Initial meetings started September 1990 - 2 agreements: Agreement on Reconciliation, Nonaggression, Exchanges, and Cooperation (the "basic agreement") The Joint Declaration called for bilateral nuclear inspection regime to verify the denuclearization of the peninsula. entered into force 19 February 1992, - the two sides "shall not test, manufacture, produce, receive, possess, store, deploy or use nuclear weapons," and that they "shall not possess nuclear reprocessing and uranium enrichment facilities." North-South Joint Nuclear Control Commission (JNCC) was mandated with verification of the denuclearization of the peninsula. March 1992, - JNCC est but meetings failed to reach agreement on the main issue of establishing a bilateral inspection regime. Talks stalled in fall 1992
15. Towards the Agreed Framework January 1993 – North refuses inspections of two unreported facilities suspected of holding nuclear waste 12 March 1993 – DPRK announces it will withdraw from the NPT 11 May 1993 - UNSC resolution urges DPRK to cooperate with the IAEA and implement 1991 North-South denuclearization accord urged all to encourage DPRK to respond positively to resolution and to facilitate a solution. Early June 1993 - US holds political-level talks with the DPRK joint statement outlines basic principles for continued US-DPRK dialogue and DPRK’s "suspending" NPT withdrawal 2nd round of talks held July 14-19, 1993, in Geneva set guidelines for improving U.S.-North relations and restarting inter-Korean talks, but further negotiations deadlocked June 1994 - Former President Carter's visit to Pyongyang resulted in renewed South-North talks July 8, 1994. - 3rd round of US-DPRK talks open in Geneva Death of Kim Il Sung - talks were recessed halted plans for a first ever South-North presidential summit Talks resumed in August and concluded with the Agreed Framework
16. The Agreed Framework Signed by US and DPRK on October 21, 1994 in Geneva: North Korea to freeze its existing nuclear program and agree to enhanced IAEA safeguards Both sides cooperate to replace DPRK’s graphite-moderated reactors for related facilities with light-water (LWR) power plants. Both move toward full normalization of political & economic relations Both work together for peace and security on a nuclear-free Korean peninsula Both work to strengthen the intl nuclear non-proliferation regime Prior to the Agreed Framework, intelligence sources believed North Korea could have extracted plutonium from their reactors for use in nuclear weapons; perhaps enough for 1-2 nukes
17. North-South-US-Jpn July 2000: North Korea threatens restarting nuclear program if US doesn't compensate for the loss of electricity caused by delays in building NPPs June 2001: North Korea warns it will reconsider its moratorium on missile tests if US doesn't resume contacts aimed at normalising relations June 2001 - worst spring drought in DPRK August 2001 - Kim Jong Il arrives for first visit to Moscow epic nine-day, 10,000-km train ride from Pyongyang Jan. 29, 2002: Bush labels North Korea, Iran and Iraq an "axis of evil“. late 2002, North Korea returned to using its old reactors June 2002 - North and South Korean naval vessels wage a gun battle in the Yellow Sea Some 30 North Korean and 4 South Korean sailors are killed September 2002 - Japanese PM Koizumi visits, the first Japanese leader to do so. Kim Jong-ilapologisesfor the abductions of Japanese citizens in the 1970s and 1980s.
18. Nuclear Brinkmanship October 2002 - US says North has admitted to having a secret weapons programme, halts oil shipments December 2002 – DPRK reactivates Yongbyonreactor. IAEA inspectors thrown out. 2003 January - North Korea withdraws from the NPT 2003 April – DPRK delegations, the US and China begin talks in Beijing 2003 July - Pyongyang says it has enough plutonium to start making nuclear bombs DPRK officials claim to have reprocessed spent fuel rods & threatened to begin exporting nuclear materials unless the US agrees to one-on-one talks
19. 6 Party Talks 2003 August - Six-nation talks in Beijing fail to bridge gap between US and DPRK 2003 October - Pyongyang says it has reprocessed 8,000 nuclear fuel rods, obtaining enough material to make up to six nuclear bombs 2004June – 3rd round of six-nation talks ends inconclusively. North Korea pulls out of scheduled September round. 2004 December - Row with Japan over fate of Japanese citizens kidnapped and trained as spies by DPRK in 70s, 80s. Tokyo says 8 victims, said by Pyongyang to be dead, are alive 2005 February – DPRK says it has built NW for self-defence 2005 September – 4th round of talks concludes. DPRK gives up weapons for aid and security guarantees. Later demands a civilian nuclear reactor. 2006 February - High-level talks with Japan, the first since 2003, fail to yield agreement on key issues, including the fate of Japanese citizens 2006July - North Korea test-fires long-range missile, and some medium-range ones. The long-range Taepodong-2 crashes shortly after take-off.
20. North Korea Explodes a Device October 16, 2006 - North Korea conducts underground nuclear test. Yield estimated less than 1kt 2007 February - Six-nation talks resume in Beijing. DPRK agrees to close main nuclear reactor for fuel aid 2007 May - Passenger trains cross the North-South border for the first time in 56 years 2007 June – IAEA inspectors visit the Yongbyon nuclear complex for the first time since 2002. In July, they verify the shutdown of the Yongbyon reactor. 2007 August - North Korea appeals for aid after devastating floods
21. Nuclear Declaration 2007Oct - Pyongyang to disable 3 nuclear facilities and declare its nuclear programmes by year-end Presidents North & South pledge to talks to formally end Korean war 2007Nov- North and South PMs meet for the first time in 15 years. 2008Feb - New York Philharmonic in Pyongyang - cultural diplomacy 2008Feb- South Korea's President Lee Myung-bak says aid to North conditional on nuclear disarmament and human rights progress 2008 March-April - North expels Southern managers from joint industrial base, test-fires short-range missiles and accuses President Lee Myung-bak of sending a warship into Northern waters. 2008June 26 - North Korea long-awaited declaration of nuclear assets list of nuclear sites and declared 37 kg of plutonium in the 60-page document President Bush announced that Trading with the Enemy Act (TWEA) would no longer apply to DPRK and notified Congress of intent to remove DPRK as State Sponsor of Terrorism (SST) after required 45-day wait period. 27 June, US assists North in destroying the cooling tower at Yongbyon
22. Continuing Talks… …and Rhetoric 2008 July - Soldier shoots South Korean woman in the Mount Kumgang, North Korea, prompting further tensions FM Pak Ui-chun and US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice hold talks, the first in four years 2008Sept – DPRK accuses US of not fulfilling disarmament-for-aid deal and says it’s preparing to restart Yongbyon reactor 2008 October - The US removes DPRK from list of countries which sponsor terrorism in return for DPRK agreeing to provide full access to its nuclear sites 2008 November - North says it will cut off all overland travel to/from the South from Dec; blames South for pursuing a confrontational policy 2008 December - Pyongyang says it will slow down work to dismantle its nuclear programme in response to a US decision to suspend energy aid. The US move came following the breakdown of international talks to end the country's nuclear activities.
23. Nuclear Tensions Rise Again 2009 January – DPRK scrapping all military and political deals with South, accusing Seoul of "hostile intent" 2009 April - DPRK launches rocket carrying what it says is a communications satellite; its neighbours accuse it of testing long-range missile technology After criticism from the UNSC, North Korea walks out of six-party talks 2009 May – DPRK second underground nuclear test Also announces no longer bound by the terms of the 1953 truce Defence Secretary Gates says US "will not accept" a nuclear-armed DPRK 2009 June - DPRK sentences US journalists to 12 years hard labour for allegedly crossing the border illegally. They are freed in August, after Bill Clinton visits. 2009 June - UNSC votes unanimously to impose tougher sanctions. Pyongyang responds it will view any US-led attempt to blockade the country as an "act of war" and that it plans to "weaponise" its plutonium stocks
24. Tensions subside…then rise 2009 August - Pyongyang sends delegation to the funeral of former South Korean President Kim Dae-jung, frees four South Korean fishermen, and agrees to resume programme of family reunions 2009 November - North launches a confiscatory currency reform that causes disruption to private markets and unprecedented public protests 2009 December - US envoy Stephen Bosworth visits Pyongyang, reaches "common understanding" on need to resume six-nation talks. 2010 January, North calls for an end to hostile relations with US and vows to strive for a nuclear-free Korean peninsula 2010 February - The government reportedly eases restrictions on private markets after the currency revaluation of 2009 wiped out cash savings 2010 March - Sinking of ROK warship Cheonan, allegedly by the North 2010July – US announces new sanctions on North in response
25. More of the same… 2010September - North makes overtures to the South, including more family reunions and acceptance of flood-damage aid 2010November - North Korea shows an eminent visiting American nuclear scientist a vast new secretly-built facility for enriching uranium at Yongbyon. Cross-border clash near disputed maritime border results in death of two South Korean marines. DPRK’s military insists it did not open fire first and blames South Korea for the incident. 2011 February - Foot and mouth disease hits livestock, threatening to aggravate desperate food shortages
26. Succession 2011December - Kim Jong-ildies Kim Jong-un hailed as "Great Successor" takes over as chairman of National DefenceCommission 2012 March – US Armed Services Committee amendment on on 2013 Defense Authorisation Bill to reconsider US nukes in ROK April - Launch of a "rocket-mounted satellite" to mark birthday of Kim Il-Sung fails Most observers think it was a long-range missile test of the sort that North Korea had agreed to suspend in return for US food aid. North says it is no longer bound by the agreement, which also banned nuclear tests. July - Army head Ri Yong-ho is removed from senior posts in the ruling party, Kim Jong-un appoints himself to highest rank of marshal August - The UN says DPRK has asked for urgent food aid after devastating floods in July
27. Hope for the future? North-South Relations North-Jpn Relations North-China Relations North-US Relations 6 Party Relations