UNIT 2: DEMOGRAPHY “The superior power of population cannot be checked without producing misery or vice” Thomas Malthus • Today: • Review of yesterday • Review of demography? Definitions/txtbk work • Population Pyramids Review • Worksheet: Population Pyramids (homework?) • Note: Demographic Transition
Review of Demography? • What is the definition of demography? • Demographyis the study of human populations. • Who uses demographic info (trends, #s, etc?) and what for? • Governments and businesses use demographic data to predict future needs for essentials such as schooling, housing, labour, and goods & services • What is the world’s population: 1950? Today? 2050? • In 1950, the world’s population reached 2.5 billion • Today it is approximately 7 billion • by 2050 the UN says it will reach 9 billion • What are the 2 trends we’ll be studying in this unit? • The population explosion & declining growth rate
Review continued… 1. The Population Explosion • Date & what happened? • Human population exploded in “recent” human history • In 1960, the world’s population reached 3 billion. It had taken more than 1 million years to reach this level! • Yet less than 40 years later, in 1999, doubled to 6 billion! • With twice as many people to provide for, what did this mean for gov’ts & the economy? 2. Declining Growth Rate • Date and significance? • Since 1980 (some 60s/70s), largest decline in human history! • Challenges associated with this decline? • example: Our Canadian social system and economy are based on the assumption that our pop’n is growing • % of older people booms & they have great demands. They require pensions, health care, retirement.
How has the world pop’n been able to increase historically? • Technological change! • What is Earth’s carrying capacity? • Earth’s carrying capacity is the number of people that can be supported by the world’s resources at any particular time • Technology changes the carrying capacity of Earth Stage 1: Hunting and Gathering • When? • earliest stages of human history • What was life like? • Nomadic, women gathered food, men hunted • always at the edge of starvation • Was the carrying capacity high or low? • large area of land was needed to support small amnt of ppl, therefore carrying capacity of the world was low • clearly, a new means of support needed 2b developed…
Stage 2: The Agricultural Revolution • Agriculture did not always exist; it was invented • Result? • creation of food surplus = people can stop moving • Why is this significant for Earth’s carrying capacity? • More food produced on land = carrying capacity increase Stage 3: Industrial Revolution • What happened in this revolution? • Windmills, water-powered, coal, oil = factories and an increase of production in factories and on the farm • Result? • Fewer farm workers needed, yet more food produced! • Carrying capacity of the earth increased!
There are many factors that contribute to population growth. POPULATION GROWTH ACTIVITY… What are some other factors?
Can you remember all of these terms from grade 9? Use the textbook to find the following terms. Write them in your notes: • Birth rate • Death rate • Dependency Load • Emigration rate • Immigration rate • Infant Mortality Rate • Life expectancy • Population Growth Rate • Population Pyramid
Random Demographic Statistics from 2011: • Total fertility rate worldwide ranges from 0.9 children per woman in Taiwan to 7.0 children in Niger • 5 most populated countries, per millions: • China 1, 346 • India 1, 241 • United Stats 312 • Indonesia 238 • Brazil 197 • Youngest countries – Niger & Uganda, approx 50% of populations is 15 and under • Oldest country – Japan, 23.2% 65 and over
Population Pyramids • How can we • analyze these? • Country classification • Birth rates • Death rates • Life expectancy • Dependency Load
How can we • analyze these? • Country classification • Birth rates • Death rates • Life expectancy • Dependency Load Population Pyramids Used to compare countries quickly! http://www.census.gov/population/international/data/idb/informationGateway.php
“First World” Nations country classification, birth rates, death rates, life expectancy, dependency Load http://www.census.gov/population/international/data/idb/informationGateway.php
“Second World” Nations country classification, birth rates, death rates, life expectancy, dependency Load Formerly Communist countries http://www.census.gov/population/international/data/idb/informationGateway.php
“Third World” Nations country classification, birth rates, death rates, life expectancy, dependency Load http://www.census.gov/population/international/data/idb/informationGateway.php
Analyzing Population Growth and Decline: Demographic Transition • In general, BR decrease as the need or desire for children decreases. DR decreases as public health initiatives and modern medicine lengthen life. • Demographic Transition: Analyzes the shift in BR and DR that historically have occurred over long periods of time. • Note: While transitioning through these stages took CENTURIES for developed nations, many developing nations are transitioning in DECADES • Countries may be grouped in stages… Stage 1: • Characterized by both high BR and high DR • Many young people, few older people. Old age is 50 yrs old. • About 9% of world’s population is in this stage. • Countries in this stage? Uganda, Zambia, Afghanistan
SPOTLIGHT ON: Uganda in 2011, Example of Stage 1 • Population = 35 million • Growth rate of 3.3% per year. At this growth rate, expected to double to 70 million by 2031, and 100 million by 2040. • Half of it’s pop’n 15 or younger = one of youngest countries in the world. • Total fertility rate of 6-7 births per woman. • Only 18% of Uganda’s married women use effective contraception. • Uganda’s government shows little support for family planning initiatives. • Gender inequality: • Men 20 years old+ always have higher education than women, same levels until 20. • More than 70% of women thought that a husband could be justified for hitting or beating his wife, which suggests there’s a cultural acceptance of violence against women. • Uganda has one of the highest maternal death rations: approximately 430 deaths per 100,000 births. Only 42% of births have a skilled attendant at delivery. (stats vary by region) • 65% of population lives on less than $2/day. Stats from PRB Population Reference Bureau, 2011
Stage 2: • BR still high, DR declining • Dramatic drop in DR b/c living conditions improve, ppl live longer. • BR remain high b/c people unsure how many children will survive. • Result? Population sill increasing. • This stage represents 7% of world’s population. • Countries in this stage? Guatemala, Ghana, Iraq.
SPOTLIGHT ON: Guatemala in 2011, Example of Stage 2 • Population = 14 million, most populated country in Central America • Growth rate of 2.5% per year, highest in Latin America. Population forecasted to double in 26 years. • Half of it’s pop’n 19 or younger = youngest country in Latin America. • Total fertility rate of 3.6 births per woman. • Only 44% of Guatemala’s married women use effective contraception. • Guatemala’s government shows support for family planning initiatives, BUT they haven’t been carried out effectively. • Gender inequality: • Between 1987 and 2009, the percentage of women who never attended school dropped from 38% to 20% • Traditional gender roles: 65% of women included in the 2008/9 survey reported that a woman should obey her husband, even when she does not agree with him, and 80% said they need husband’s approval before incurring a household expense, working outside the house, or leaving the house. As well, 46% of women reported they experienced verbal, physical, or sexual violence from their husband or partner. • Maternal health: 110 maternal deaths per 100,000 births and more than 50% of deliveries have a physician or nurse • 25% of population lives on less than $2/day. Stats from PRB Population Reference Bureau, 2011
Stage 3: • BR now declining, DR still declining. • BR declining for several reasons. • More babies surviving, families desiring to limit size b/c people becoming urban and don’t need children • Women beginning to work. • BR declining from previous high rates, but hasn’t dropped enough to meet the “replacement level” of 2.1 children per women • This stage represents 38% of world’s population. • Country in this stage? India
SPOTLIGHT ON: India in 2011, Example of Stage 3 • Note: difficult to generalize India because 35 diverse states and Union Territories. • Population = 1.2 BILLION, population expected to surpass China’s within 10 years, if China maintains its One Child Policy. • India vs. China? India’s population is much younger, so it’s not expected to face challenges of aging population. Example: in 2011, its 0-4 age group included 67 million people, larger than the entire population of France! • Population growth rate is declining. • First developing country to declare a policy to reduce fertility, beginning 1952. • Fertility rate? In 1950, was 5.9 births per woman • By 2009, fertility had declined to 2.6 births per woman • Gender inequality: • Traditional gender roles: arranged and early marriages in vast majority of Indian households. • Preference for sons has skewed sex rations in favour of males. Aborting girls is common. Stats from PRB Population Reference Bureau, 2011
Stage 4: Post-Transition • Countries with low or very low BR and DR. • Life is urbanized, and small families. • Why small families? Economic uncertainty, lack of daycare, & social attitudes about parenting. • Pop’n decline & aging pop’n are common. • This stage represents almost half – 46% - of the world’s population! • Many developed countries began to reach this stage only in the 1960s - 1970s… • Countries in this stage? Germany, Brazil, Japan, Canada • Germany’s total fertility rate is 1.4 births per woman. It has been below 1.5 since 1975. Efforts to raise the fertility rate in Germany has been unsuccessful.
Question: What would fracture these models? Don’t Forget Your homework!