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Understanding the Dynamics and Representation of the MJO in Weather and Climate Models

This document outlines an agenda from the MJO Breakout Group, focusing on the complexities of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) within various multiscale modeling frameworks (MMFs). Key topics include the structure of the MJO as explored through different models, including CSU and NASA Goddard MMFs, the Year of Tropical Convection (YOTC) findings, and the representation and predictability of the MJO. It emphasizes the need for comprehensive validation of models and discusses relevant research, including stochastic backscatter and conventional parameterization, highlighting the MJO as a critical challenge for forecasting accuracy.

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Understanding the Dynamics and Representation of the MJO in Weather and Climate Models

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  1. MJO Breakout Group

  2. MJO Breakout Group Agenda Jim Benedict - Structure of the MJO in MMF Bo-wen Shen - Comparison of CSU & NASA Goddard MMFs Mitch Moncrieff & Duane Waliser - Year of Tropical Convection (YOTC) Duane Waliser - CLIVAR MJO Diagnostics Working Group and the plenary talk …. Bill Rossow - Testing the realism of MMF: Representation of MJO Discussion leaders/items Judith Berner - Stochastic backscatter Marat Khairoutdinov - Conventional parameterization Hiroaki Muira - MISMO- related (MJO initiation) global simulations Mitch Moncrieff - Predictability of the MJO (ensemble approach)

  3. MJO : A CHALLENGE FOR WEATHER & CLIMATE MODELS, A PROBLEM OF MULTISCALE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION (WHICH IS NOT REPRESENTED BY CONTEMPORARY PARAMETERIZATIONS The MJO: A comprehensive modeling/prediction/validation problem Weather and Climate models (parameterized convection) Probabilistic (ensemble) models (parameterized convection) High-resolution NWP models (hybrid convective parameterization) Superparameterized models (explicit convection) Regional and global CRMs (explicit convection) Theoretical insights … comprehensive models call for comprehensive validation

  4. Priority activities • Representation of the MJO in CMMAP MMF, and comparison with other MMFs • Nature of convective organization in CMMAP MMF MJOs (e.g., initiation, lifecycle, thermodynamic & dynamical structure, propagation, etc.) • Evaluation of CMMAP MJOs against observations e.g., satellite data • Parameterization

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