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Probability and Conditional Probability in Selection Scenarios

Understand the concepts of probability and conditional probability using scenarios like choosing balls from boxes or drawing cards from a deck. Learn how to calculate probabilities and make informed decisions. Enhance your probability skills with practical examples.

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Probability and Conditional Probability in Selection Scenarios

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  1. Probability and Conditional Probability

  2. Probability • Four balls • What is the probability of choosing the ball in the red box? • Since there are four balls and you are choosing one ball, the probability is 1 out of 4 or ¼. • Probability can also be stated as a decimal or a percentage, so this probability also equals .25 or 25%

  3. Conditional Probability • Given one deck of 52 cards containing 13 cards of each suit (spades, hearts, diamonds, and clubs). • What is the probability of receiving a heart, given that you already received two hearts on your first two draws? • P (heart card | 2 hearts already drawn) = ?

  4. Conditional Probability • P (heart card | 2 hearts already drawn) = ? • The probability of a heart being drawn is 13 out of 52 = ¼ = .25 = 25%. • Since two hearts have already been drawn, there are only 11 heart cards left. Also, there are only 50 cards left in the deck. • So P (heart card | 2 hearts already drawn) = 11 out of 50 = 11/50 = .22 = 22%

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