1 / 23

Economic Update: Upstate New York's Job Growth Amidst Weak US Performance

This economic update by Richard Deitz from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York examines job growth in Upstate New York from 2000 to 2002, revealing that it is on par with weak national performance. The data highlights sector-specific employment changes and the impact of recent recessions. Notably, areas like Rochester and Binghamton experienced significant job losses due to a lack of industrial diversity. The report also discusses long-term sluggishness in job growth and wage stagnation, indicating broader economic concerns for the region's future.

vaughn
Télécharger la présentation

Economic Update: Upstate New York's Job Growth Amidst Weak US Performance

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Economic Update for Upstate New York Richard Deitz Regional Economist Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Buffalo Branch richard.deitz@ny.frb.org March 12, 2003

  2. Upstate Job Growth: On Par with Weak US Performance Employment Index: 2000 = 100 US Upstate Source: US Department of Labor

  3. Upstate Job Growth By Sector in 2002 Compared to the US; bubble size indicates relative size of industry in the region Upstate Growth Rate Finance Construction Gov’t Utilities/Comm US Growth Rate Services Trade Manufacturing Source: US Dept of Labor

  4. Total Change in Nonfarm Payroll Employment net percent Buffalo -6,358 -1.1% -1.9% Rochester -10,525 Albany +5,500 +1.2% Syracuse -1,325 -0.4% Utica -1,850 -1.4% Binghamton -2,533 -2.1% US -0.7% Job Growth in Upstate Metros: 2000-2002

  5. Average Job Loss in Postwar RecessionsLocal area Peak through Trough Source: U.S. Department of Labor

  6. Job Loss in This RecessionLocal area Peak through Local Trough The least diverse economies suffering the biggest losses Source: U.S. Department of Labor

  7. Rochester & Binghamton: Least Diverse Industry Mix Industrial Diversity Index: 1997 Index Source: Bureau of the Census, County Business Patterns, author’s calculations

  8. Job Growth: 1990s Expansion vs Recessionrankings of the largest 100 metro areas Las Vegas 1 8 Austin 2 61 Phoenix 3 69 Orlando 4 57 Atlanta 5 93 West Palm Beach 6 15 Tampa 7 36 Dallas 8 72 Salt Lake City 9 85 Sarasota 10 16 1990-2001 3/01 - 12/02 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

  9. Key Local IndustriesNational employment declines • Buffalo: rank #48 • Autos - 7% • Fabricated metal products - 8% • Rochester: rank #77 • Instruments - 7% • Seattle: rank #98 • Aircraft - 16% • San Jose: rank #100 • Communications equipment - 9% • Electronic components - 25% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

  10. Manufacturing current recession compared to the last recession

  11. Manufacturing Job Losses Index US Loss: 1990 Note: 1990 recession is defined as employment peak to employment trough; current recession defined as 3/01-12/02 Source: U.S. Department of Labor

  12. Manufacturing Job Losses Index US Loss: Current US Loss: 1990 Note: 1990 recession is defined as employment peak to employment trough; current recession defined as 3/01-12/02 Source: U.S. Department of Labor

  13. Upstate Losing its Share of Manufacturing Jobs Percent of U.S. Manufacturing Employment 15% Drop Source: US Department of Labor

  14. Percent of Employment in Manufacturing Index US Average: 1990 Source: Bureau of the Census, County Business Patterns, author’s calculations

  15. Percent of Employment in Manufacturing Index US Average: current Source: US Department of Labor

  16. Net Manufacturing Employment Impact weighted contribution to recessionary job loss Net Job Loss Attributable to Manufacturing Source: US Department of Labor Note: 1990 recession is defined as employment peak to employment trough; current recession defined as 3/01-12/02

  17. Net Manufacturing Employment Impact weighted contribution to recessionary job loss Net Job Loss Attributable to Manufacturing Source: US Department of Labor Note: 1990 recession is defined as employment peak to employment trough; current recession defined as 3/01-12/02

  18. Long Term Sluggishness

  19. Long-Term Job Growth is Sluggish Employment Index: 1991 = 100 US Upstate Source: US Department of Labor

  20. The Labor Force is Shrinking Index: 1990 = 100 US Upstate Source: US Department of Labor

  21. As is the Population population growth 1990 to 2000 Rochester Albany Syracuse Buffalo Binghamton Utica Source: Bureau of the Census

  22. Average Wage Growth per Worker: 1997-2001 private sector, in core MSA county US Average Source: ES202

  23. Conclusions • This recession has not been particularly severe for the majority of upstate • except for Rochester and Binghamton • The manufacturing impact has been somewhat worse than the last recession • and upstate is losing its share of manufacturing jobs • Long term stagnation and low wage growth are more concerning

More Related