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Time Series – from Achieved to Excellence

Time Series – from Achieved to Excellence

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Time Series – from Achieved to Excellence

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  1. Time Series –from Achieved to Excellence

  2. What will be covered Techniques and data that gets students engaged in the topic Help with the research component A discussion on forms of assessment Strategies for ensuring good report writing

  3. Time Series Using the statistical enquiry cycle to investigate time series data involves: • using existing data sets • selecting a variable to investigate • selecting and using appropriate display(s) • identifying features in the data and relating this to the context • finding an appropriate model • using the model to make a forecast • communicating findings in a conclusion.

  4. Excellence! Investigate time series data, with justification and statistical insight involves integrating statistical and contextual knowledge throughout the statistical enquiry cycle, and may include reflecting about the process; considering other relevant variables; evaluating the adequacy of any models; or showing a deeper understanding of models.

  5. Statistical insight involves integratingstatistical and contextual knowledge

  6. Road to excellence? Students need to: understand/relate to the context research it properly and write with insight. They need a structure to work to in order to organise their brains. They need to be familiar with the language of statistics. Fake it until they make it

  7. Understand and relate to context

  8. How do they get here? Students need to start with something that is very familiar that they feel confident talking about.

  9. School!

  10. Relating to the context Start with something that gets them talking and looking at various issues. Seed the things you want students to notice and develop especially things like where is the information coming from.

  11. Attendance in New Zealand Schools 2012 Something they are familiar with A little about me

  12. Attendance in New Zealand Schools 2012 Get students to use a yellow highlighter when reading material

  13. Why are we interested in this investigation? “There has been increasing community, political, and education sector concern over absence from school.” (Mallari, Loader, 2013) Use referencing in material given to students

  14. Background A national survey of state primary and secondary schools in New Zealand in 1977 (Taylor, Sturrock and White 1982) reported that the unjustified absence rate in primary schools was 0.69%, and in secondary schools it was 1.4%. Berwick-Emms (1987).

  15. Broader context – Underlying issue - Referencing The problem of truancy is shared throughout the world (see Reid 1987, Andrews 1986). Whitney (1994:15), a British researcher, notes that ‘Truancy, like poverty, has a lengthy past history, and the two have always been closely related. “Chronic absenteeism is most prevalent among low income students.” Balfanz, 2012

  16. Data Source •

  17. Survey Details The Ministry of Education survey on attendance was carried out in the week 11-15 June, 2012 The response rate was 88% Schools recording absences on the paper form were required to make their own judgementas to whether a student was absent for all or part of a day, and whether that absence was justified based on the definitions and instructions supplied.

  18. Are comparisons valid? The survey was carried out in the week of 11-15 June 2012, close to the middle of the second school term. This week was the same week of term as the 2009 and 2011 surveys. By analysing data from a similar time of year, factors such as winter illness would have been at broadly similar levels.

  19. Perspective - numbers In 2012, approximately 62,000 students were absent from school for all or part of a day during the survey week. Of these, 15,000 students were unjustifiably absent from school.

  20. Tables to visual

  21. Not very good for the messages we want from the data

  22. Who would be interested and why?

  23. Is this a real decrease or is it pressure on schools by the Ministry to deal with absences?

  24. Main features:Time periods are not at equal intervalsTotal: Between about 10% and 12%Peak: ≈12% in 2009Drop or leveling out since 2009

  25. Similarities/Differences/ReasonsWhat other questions should be asked?

  26. What might be different in the previous graphs if we just looked at secondary?

  27. or Decile

  28. Gender and year level

  29. Ethnicity

  30. Regions – is there a link with poverty

  31. Time Series

  32. Always ask questions about it. What would it look like at our school? What might be different?

  33. Other topics • Cell phone usage • Births • Marriage and divorce rates • House prices • Alcohol consumption • Dramatic events like people killed by cows/sharks

  34. All births in the US 1978

  35. A snippet

  36. A snippet Why is this Thursday lower than usual?

  37. Births in NZ 2011

  38. September

  39. December births

  40. Researching and Referencing

  41. NOTE • Correct referencing is NOT REQUIRED but research sources must be clear so they can be followed up e.g. url of websites used

  42. Why Reference? Referencing is necessary to avoid plagiarism. It allows others to follow up and read what other researchers (writers) have to say about the topic. It will become part of the students’ university life.

  43. Style I encourage my students to use APA referencing as it is often used in university courses.

  44. Mobile Data Usage September 9, 2013 September 16, 2013

  45. Researching Research skills need to be taught. There are lesson plans available from

  46. Research skills

  47. Good site for starting

  48. You can search by dates


  50. Google search tools