Reconstructing Census Data: Innovative Strategies for Disaggregating Demographic Summary Tables

1. Breaking the Census "Code": Reconstructing Original Record-Level Data from Summary Tables Dmitry Messen Houston-Galveston Area Council

2. Need for Disaggregate Demographic Data • One person=one record (one household=one record) • Agent-based Land Use Forecasting Model (UrbanSim) • Household Location Choice • Population Evolution Microsimulation • Survival, child birth, migration • Household Evolution Microsimulation • Household formation and dissolution

3. Synthesis Strategies • Strategy 1: One-step synthesis of all the attributes (N) • Get N separate counts (on each attribute) • Fill in the table margins • Get record-level sample data (PUMS) • Estimate conditional probabilities • Run IPF (Iterative Proportional Fitting) • Fill in the table cells, preserve the margins • Quick results; however, tons of information is not used (wasted)—Spendthrift Synthesis

4. Synthesis Strategies • Strategy 2: Multi-step synthesis • Guiding principles • Lowest level of spatial resolution • Use all available information • Minimize synthesis • Parsimonious Synthesis

5. Census Data • Decennial Census • SF-1 Tables • Based on “Short Form” (100% count) • Basic Demographic Info • Age, Sex, Race, Hispanic, Type of Household/Family, Relation to Head of Household • SF-3 Tables • Based on “Long Form” (16% sample) • No Long Form in 2010; ACS • Expanded Socioeconomic Data

6. Comparing SF-1 to SF-3

8. Short Form • Based on the “Short Form” responses Census compiles master files of persons and households • All SF-1 Tables are just tabulations from the master file • We can’t see the entire master file, we only have indirect information as revealed by the tabulations • As if the Master File is an encrypted message and we are trying to break the code • MRI/CAT-scan analogy

9. Master File • Project Goal • To recreate the master file using available summary tabulations • Constraints • Use all available data • Minimize guessing (IPF) • Final product must be fully consistent with SF1 tabulations • Tabulations produced from the reconstructed master file should be identical to SF-1 tables

10. Expansion Tables • SF-1 Expansion tables (e.g., 16A, 16B, 16I) • 9 categories (A,B,C,..I) • 5 single races, • 1 Other race • 1 Two or more races • 1 Hispanics • 1 White Not Hispanics

11. Core SF-1 Tables • Tables 27, 28, 30 • Age groups: 0-17, 18-64, 65+ (65-102) • Household Roles—Major Groups: • Householder or Spouse (HS) • Household Head (HH) • Male/Female x Fam/NonFam Alone/NonFam Not Alone • Spouse (SP) • Household Member (HM) • Non-Relative (NR) • Group quarters inhabitant (GQ1, GQ2)

12. Operational Hierarchy • Rules of Internal Consistency (sudoku puzzle) • No additional info • External Constraints • Race-Hisp Constraint (Tables 5,6,8) • Race-Hisp-Age (Under 18, Over 18) • 0-17 = Under 18,18-65 = Over 18,65-102 = Over 18 • Sex Constraint (Table 12) • Sex-Age • IPF (aka raking, balancing) procedure

13. Additional Info • Size distribution (1,2,3,4,5,6,7+) for Family and Non-Family Households • By Race of Household Head • Table 26 • Count of MCF and Other Families by Presence (0, at least 1, at least 2) of Children (<18 years old) • By Race of Household Head • Table 35

14. Phases • Phase 1: Race-Hispanic Assignment • Phase 2: Sex Assignment • Phase 3: Type of Family (married couple or other) Assignment • Phase 4: “Child” Role Assignment • Generate a list of people from the summary table • Phase 5: Match MCF householders with Spouses (PUMS-based probabilities) • Phase 6: Household Size Assignment • Phase 7: Assign People to Households

15. Implementation • Implemented in SAS • Still experimental • Completed all 7 phases, now reworking the sequence • Stand alone IPF module • Integer solution • 13 counties, 56K+ Blocks, 4.8M+ People

16. What’s Next • Testing • Documenting • Assigning Socioeconomic (non-SF1) Attributes • Developing Household Evolution Model • Analyzing Census 2010 SF-1 Table shells for compatibility

17. Thank you! Questions?