The Census in American History…

1. The Census in American History… Margo Anderson History & Urban Studies Univ. of Wisconsin Milwaukee 53201 margo@uwm.edu

2. The Census in American History… • A story of success… Mostly…. And how census takers in the past dealt with the inevitable bumps in the road….

3. The Census is a …. • Rare, Repeated, Unobtrusive event in American political life… • Rare: • The 2010 Census is the 23rd in 220 years. • By comparison we’ve had 44 presidents, and 56 presidential elections. The 111th Congress is currently in session.

4. The Census is a …. • Rare, Repeated, Unobtrusive event in American political life… • Repeated: • Successfully every ten years since 1790, despite wars, including the Civil War, economic crises, political turmoil.

5. The Census is a …. • Rare, Repeated, Unobtrusive event in American political life… • Unobtrusive: • Most people outside this building don’t remember the last one, the one before that, the one before that… • Do you remember where you were on April 1, 2000, April 1, 1990? • Compare that to September 11, 2001, or November 22, 1963, or December 7, 1941?

6. The Census also is….Janus faced • It always looks both backwards to where the country has been and forward to where it’s going • in methods and the questions asked, • the results, • and most clearly in the reapportionment and redistricting of political power each decade

7. Outline of the Talk • Census History: constitutional origins and functions • Demographic history of US and implications of growth and change on the political system • Administrative and Organizational History • Episodes in the past relevant to current issues.

8. I. Building the American State

10. Article 1, Section 2, Paragraph 3 • Representatives and direct Taxes shall be apportioned among the several States which may be included within this Union, according to their respective Numbers, which shall be determined by adding to the whole Number of free Persons, including those bound to Service for a Term of Years, and excluding Indians not taxed, three fifths of all other Persons. The actual Enumeration shall be made within three Years after the first Meeting of the Congress of the United States, and within every subsequent Term of ten Years, in such Manner as they shall by Law direct.

11. Importance of the Census • The United States was the first nation in the history of the world to take a regular population census and use it to allocate seats in a national assembly according to population.

12. Importance of the Census • The U.S. has had one of the most demographically dynamic and diverse populations in the history of the world. • The combination of the census as mechanism to adjust power and resources each decade, in conjunction with the demographic dynamism and diversity, made the census and the statistical system truly central to the functioning of the society and state

13. Importance of the Census • Dynamism is measured by patterns of population growth and change • Diversity involves geographic diversity, group diversity, and different rates of change for different parts of the country, and among the groups. • Hence three levels • Numerical growth • Geographic diversity • Racial and ethnic diversity

14. Numerical Growth

15. From 3.9 million to 309 million: Growth • 13 states have become 50 states. • House of Representatives grew from 65 to 435 members. • The average congressional district after the 2010 Census will be larger than the total population of any of the original 13 states in 1790. • Growth has been differential: some states and local areas lose while others gain.

17. Admitting States to the Union

18. Growth in the Size of the House of Representatives

19. Differential Population Growth: New York State Population and House Delegation, 1790-2010

20. Projected Changes in House Seats after 2010

21. Geographic Diversity

22. Geographic Diversity: Westward Expansion

23. Geographic Diversity: The First Gerrymander, 1812

25. Racial and Ethnic Diversity

26. Click to see Census Bureau Web Home Page http:/www.census.gov Click to see Redistricting Info (PL-94-171) http://census.gov/clo/www/redistricting.html http://www.census.gov/population/cen2000/atlas/white_a.pdf Click to see Table http://www.census.gov/prod/2001pubs/c2kbr01-4.pdf Click to see Census 2000 Brief

27. Click to see Census Bureau Web Home Page http://www.census.gov/ Click to see Redistricting Info (PL-94-171) http://www.census.gov/clo/www/redistricting.html Click to see Table http://www.census.gov/population/cen2000/atlas/black_a.pdf Click to see Census 2000 Brief http://www.census.gov/prod/2001pubs/c2kbr01-5.pdf

28. Click to see Census Bureau Web Home Page http://www.census.gov/ http://www.census.gov/clo/www/redistricting.html Click to see Redistricting Info (PL-94-171) Click to see Table http://www.census.gov/population/cen2000/atlas/his_lat.pdf Click to see Census 2000 Brief http://www.census.gov/prod/2001pubs/c2kbr01-3.pdf

29. Civil War Demographic Map

30. Administrative and Organizational History

31. Administrative History of the Census, 1790-1902 • From 1790 to 1902, a temporary agency in the Department of State (1790-1840) or Interior (1850-1902). • From 1790-1870 the US marshals and their assistants served as the field staff. • Over the years, Congress added the collection of agricultural, manufacturing, mortality, disability statistics to the decennial. • A very large administrative operation during the census period, but administrative discontinuity. • Congress considered proposals for a permanent census office but did not act on them until 1902.

32. Early Administrative Leadership • State Department Era: Informal process, a “Clerk” appointed by the Secretary • Interior Department Era: • A Superintending Clerk (1850-1870) position defined in statute, appointed by the Secretary • A Superintendent of the Census (1880-1900) defined in statute, appointed by the President and confirmed by the Senate • Administration of the Census was originally a young man’s job…

33. James D.B. Debow, Appointed, 1853, at Age 33 Francis Amasa Walker, Appointed, 1869, at Age 29 Appointed in 1849, at Age 36

34. Technical Innovations in Census Taking • 1850: The individual level census and the first full scale tabulation office in Washington • 1890: Hollerith cards introduced machine tabulation of the census results • 1930s: The Bureau sampling to measure unemployment • 1940: The Bureau introduced sampling into the decennial census • 1940s: Statistical methods used for coverage measurement estimates, a modified demographic analysis • 1950: UNIVAC computer processing of the census results

35. Technical innovations… • 1960: FOSDIC (film optic sensing device for input to computers) to replace keypunching • 1960s: First PUMS files available • 1970: Mail census • 1980s: Building the TIGER/MAF system • 2000s: Introduction of ACS (American Community Survey)

36. Problems of Census Administration • The Constitutional language is silent on how to administer the census and how to apportion Congress. • From Article 1, Section 2, Paragraph 3: • The actual Enumeration shall be made within three Years after the first Meeting of the Congress of the United States, and within every subsequent Term of ten Years, in such Manner as they shall by Law direct.

37. Problems of Census Administration • The growth of the country and recognition of the importance of the census led Congress, the political parties, the President, and the public scrutinize the census….. • And to search for ways to take the census to support their political agenda

38. Solutions to the Problems… • Statutory language defining the census and its methods • The development of the science of statistics and survey research • The growing administrative expertise of census officials • The development of professional communities to articulate best practices

39. Example of Statutory Definition of Positions for Superintendent, Clerks, Copyists and “Computers,” 1879

40. Example of Statutory Definition of Field Supervisors, 1879

41. Dilemmas… • But….what if new issues arose? • Or there was no clear scientific solution? • Or if the political winds were simply too strong to resist? • Thus…the Bumps in the Road….

42. Examples of Bumps in the Road… • The Emergence of the Confidentiality Standard • Addressing Fraudulent Enumeration and Error • Dueling Science • Manipulating Bureau Leadership

43. I. The Emergence of the Confidentiality Standard • Nineteenth century census practice posted the individual schedules in the local area as a check on accuracy and completely • By the mid nineteenth century, the public began to raise objections.

44. First Efforts at Setting the Standard • Controlling Census Field Staff, 1880

45. Confronting Ambiguities • After 1903, the permanent Census Office found itself faced with requests for individual level data from other agencies with the Department of Commerce and Labor. • President Theodore Roosevelt’s political agenda involved “trust busting” – investigating and prosecuting corporations violating federal law. • Question: Should census manufacturing returns be available to the Bureau of Corporations, another agency within the Department, charged with “trust busting”?

46. Confronting Ambiguities • Census officials resisted, and found that the Secretary was not pleased. As Walter Willcox’ recalled: • “And, unless my memory or my information is at fault, when the secretary [of Commerce and Labor] directed that the census schedules of manufacturing establishments should be open to the inspection of officials belonging to another bureau within the same department (the Bureau of Corporations) and the director [of the Census Bureau] refused to obey this order of his superior, because of the pledge of secrecy under which the information had been obtained, the matter was debated in the cabinet and the decision reached that the information on these schedules should not be so used by the government….”

47. Result of the Controversy • Census officials convinced Congress to include statutory language in the 1910 Census law protecting individual level returns of manufacturing and commerce.

48. Result of the Controversy • Edward Dana Durand, 1910 Census Director, initiated the first Presidential Census Proclamation which included a pledge that census responses could not be used for “taxation, regulation or investigation.”

49. Result of the Controversy • But… • …the Bureau suffered bureaucratically, as plans for the agency to become the central statistical agency failed.

50. II. Fraudulent Enumerations, 1910