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Carbon accounting: Modeling

Carbon accounting: Modeling. Topic 4, Section E. USAID-CIFOR-ICRAF Project Assessing the Implications of Climate Change for USAID Forestry Programs (2009). 1. Learning outcomes.

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Carbon accounting: Modeling

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  1. Carbon accounting: Modeling Topic 4, Section E USAID-CIFOR-ICRAF Project Assessing the Implications of Climate Change for USAID Forestry Programs (2009) 1

  2. Learning outcomes In this presentation you will learn about the different types of models used to estimate carbon pools in forests. Topic 4, Section E, slide 2 of 33

  3. Outline • Models for indirect estimation of carbon pools • Use existing known relationships (statistical models) • Avoid destructive measurements; lower the field costs • Models to explore the potential of various options (ex-ante evaluation) of Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) and Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation (REDD) schemes • Use simulation models with existing data for generating scenarios • Models for baselines and reference levels • Use simulation models to project future development of carbon pools in the absence of project or programme activity • CDM or REDD • Use historic, economic, demographic and other data Topic 4, Section E, slide 3 of 33

  4. Models for indirect estimation of carbon pools • Allometric models between easily measurable variables and tree biomass component and/or carbon pool • Examples: • Volume tables (section 4.2) • Crown diameter vs. tree biomass (section 4.2) • Biomass expansion factor (section 4.3) Topic 4, Section E, slide 4 of 33

  5. Examples of allometric equations Topic 4, Section E, slide 5 of 33

  6. Models to explore the potential of various options • Used for ex-ante evaluation of CDM and/or REDD schemes • Using simulation models with existing data for generating scenarios • Existing models: • CO2FIX - the oldest and most widely used simulation model • GORCAM - carbon accounting model, excel spreadsheet • CAMFor - developed for the Australian Greenhouse Office for tracking the carbon associated with a stand of trees Topic 4, Section E, slide 6 of 33

  7. Example: CO2FIX De Jong et al. (2007) using CO2FIX Topic 4, Section E, slide 7 of 33

  8. Models for baselines and reference levels • Use simulation models to project future development of carbon pools in the absence of project or programme activity, either CDM or REDD • Use historic, economic, demographic and other data, such as known relationships between economic activity and land use change, to generate scenarios • Existing models: • CO2FIX (Masera et al. 2003) – An approved CDM methodology (AR-AM002) – used for CDM A/R projects • Brown et al. (2007) – review of proposed methods for REDD schemes Topic 4, Section E, slide 8 of 33

  9. Examples De Jong et al. (2007) using CO2FIX Brown et al. (2007) – same as illustrated in Section 4.1 Topic 4, Section E, slide 9 of 33

  10. CO2FIX: carbon sequestration at forest stand (patch) scale • Existing simulation models • CENTURY (Parton et al., 1987) • GORCAM (Marland and Schlamadinger, 1997) • Original CO2FIX V1 (Mohren et al., 1999) • Preference: a locally developed model • Models should project the changes in relevant carbon stocks in each land-use category over time • CO2FIX model V2 description with examples • Masera et al., 2003 – Ecological Modelling 164 Topic 4, Section E, slide 10 of 33

  11. CO2FIX Topic 4, Section E, slide 11 of 33

  12. CO2FIX model • Over 1000 users in more than 60 countries • An approved CDM methodology (AR-AM002) used for CDM afforestation and reforestation projects • Available at http://www.efi.fi/projects/casfor/ • Modular structure (biomass, soils, products, bioenergy) • Cohort model operating at patch scale: • Cohorts can be species or species-groups • Parameterisation based on existing biomass growth data • Allows • Comparison between projections (baseline and project case) • Calculation of carbon credits Topic 4, Section E, slide 12 of 33

  13. CO2FIX model structure Carbon in the atmosphere Increment (yield tables) Competition (between or within cohorts) • Cohort 3 • Tree biomass • stemwood • foliage • branches • roots Biofuelsfor energy FossilFuels forenergy Timber harvesting • Cohort 2 • Tree biomass • stemwood • foliage • branches • roots Raw material Burning of by-products Primary Processing Cohort 1 Tree biomass Harvest residues and mortality due to management Burning of disposed-of products to generate energy. Litter fall Decomposition Production line: Recycling Products in use • sawnwood • boards • paper Litter use disposal Humification Intermediate humus Decay • firewood Products in landfill Humification Stablehumus Topic 4, Section E, slide 13 of 33

  14. Yield tables Growth model: from yield tables to CO2FIX Topic 4, Section E, slide 14 of 33

  15. Parameterisation of tree growth in CO2FIX Growth data from yield tables:- literature - inventory- estimation Inventory/filed assessment Literature/laboratory Topic 4, Section E, slide 15 of 32

  16. CAIVol:Plot data compared with CO2FIX model Calophyllumbrasilense Virola koschnyi CAIVol input for the CO2FIX model Plot data Vochysia guatemalensis 16 Topic 4, Section E, slide 16 of 32

  17. Terminalia amazonia: ICA and MAI of carbon (mg ha-1 year) Montero & Kanninen (2005) Topic 4, Section E, slide 17 of 32

  18. Foliage, branches and roots Same as foliage Field data Data from:- literature - inventory- estimation Field data Field data Previous studies, literature Topic 4, Section E, slide 18 of 32

  19. Tectona grandis:Total above-ground biomass Perez & Kanninen (2003) Topic 4, Section E, slide 19 of 32

  20. CO2FIX simulations compared with plot data Topic 4, Section E, slide 20 of 33

  21. Soils Topic 4, Section E, slide 21 of 33

  22. Soils: general parameters Pet.xls Meteorological data from http://www.worldclimate.com Topic 4, Section E, slide 22 of 33

  23. Soils: cohort parameters From field and laboratory data Topic 4, Section E, slide 23 of 33

  24. Products Topic 4, Section E, slide 24 of 33

  25. Products: default parameter If you don't have data – choose one of these Topic 4, Section E, slide 25 of 33

  26. Carbon accounting Topic 4, Section E, slide 26 of 33

  27. Output example 1 Tectona grandis plantation 27 Topic 4, Section E, slide 27 of 33

  28. Output example 2 Multi-strata agroforestry system 28 Topic 4, Section E, slide 28 of 33

  29. Output example 3 Table of C stocks Topic 4, Section E, slide 29 of 33

  30. Conclusions and future needs • Carbon sequestration dynamics of above-ground biomass rather well understood • Data and knowledge gaps in below-ground biomass and soil carbon • Different modelling approaches available, such as those based on yield tables and eco-physiological models • Models are already used in baseline methods of A/R CDM projects • Challenges: REDD, large-scale avoided deforestation modelling, and degradation modelling Topic 4, Section E, slide 30 of 33

  31. References • Brown, S., Hall, M., Andrasko, K., Ruiz, F., Marzoli, W., Guerrero, G., Masera, O., Dushku, A., de Jong, B. and Cornell, J. 2007 Baselines for land-use change in the tropics: application to avoided deforestation projects. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 12:1001-26. • de Jong, B. H., Masera, O. Olguın, M. and Martınez, R. 2007 Greenhouse gas mitigation potential of combining forest management and bioenergy substitution: A case study from Central Highlands of Michoacan, Mexico. Forest Ecology and Management 242:398–411. • Liski, J., Palosuo, T., Peltoniemi, M. and Sievanen, R. 2006 Carbon and decomposition model Yasso for forest soils. Ecological Modelling 189 (2005) 168–182. • Karjalainen, T., Kellomäki, S. & Pussinen, A. 1994. Role of wood-based products in absor­bing atmospheric carbon. Silva Fennica 28(2):67-80. • Karjalainen, T., Nabuurs, G.-J., Pussinen, A., Liski, J., Erhard, M., Sonntag, M. & Mohren, F. 2002. An approach towards an estimate of the impact of forest management and climate change on the European forest sector carbon budget. Forest Ecology and Management162, 87–103. • Masera, O., Garza-Caligaris, J.F., Kanninen, M., Karjalainen, T., Nabuurs, G., Pussinen, A., de Jong, B.J. and Mohren, G.M.J. 2003 Modelling carbon sequestration in afforestation and forest management projects: the CO2FIX V 2.0 approach. Ecological Modelling 164: 177-199. • Mohren, G.M.J., Garza Caligaris, J.F., Masera, O., Kanninen, M., Karjalainen, T., Pussinen, A. and Nabuurs, G.J. 1999 CO2FIX for Windows: a dynamic model of the CO2-fixation in forests, Version 1.2. IBN Research Report 99/3, 33 pp. Topic 4, Section E, slide 31 of 33

  32. References • Montero, M. and Kanninen, M. 2005 Terminaliaamazonia; ecología y silvicultura. CATIE, SérieTécnica, InformeTécnico No. 339. 32 p. • Nabuurs, G. J., van Putten, B., Knippers, T.S. and Mohren, G.M.J. 2008 Comparison of uncertainties in carbon sequestration estimates for a tropical and a temperate forest. Forest Ecology and Management 256:237–245. • Parton, W.J., Schimel, D.S., Cole, C.V. and Ojima, D.S. 1987 Analysis of factors controlling soil organic matter levels in Great Plains grasslands. Soil Science Society of America Journal 5:1137-1179. • Pérez Cordero, L.D. and Kanninen, M. 2003 Aboveground biomass of Tectonagrandis plantations in Costa Rica. Journal of Tropical Forest Science 15(1): 199-213. • Schelhaas, M.J., van Esch, P.W., Groen, T.A., de Jong, B.H.J., Kanninen, M., Liski, J., Masera, O., Mohren, G.M.J., Nabuurs, G.J., Palosuo, T., Pedroni, L., Vallejo, A. and Vilén, T. 2004 CO2FIX V 3.1 - description of a model for quantifying carbon sequestration in forest ecosystems and wood products. ALTERRA Report 1068. Wageningen, the Netherlands. 122 p. • Schelhaas, M.J., van Esch, P.W., Groen, T.A., de Jong, B.H.J., Kanninen, M., Liski, J., Masera, O., Mohren, G.M.J., Nabuurs, G.J., Palosuo, T., Pedroni, L., Vallejo, A. and Vilén, T. 2004 CO2FIX V 3.1 - description of a model for quantifying carbon sequestration in forest ecosystems and wood products. ALTERRA Report 1068. Wageningen, the Netherlands. 122 p. • Schlamadinger, B. and Marland, G. 1996 The role of forest and bioenergy strategies in the global carbon cycle. Biomass and Bioenergy, 10:275-300. Topic 4, Section E, slide 32 of 33

  33. Thank you for your attention

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