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The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction. Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP March 16, 2015. For more information, visit: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/Asian_Monsoons/Asian_Monsoons.shtml. Outline.
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The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP March 16, 2015 For more information, visit:http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/Asian_Monsoons/Asian_Monsoons.shtml
Outline • Recent Rainfall and Current Conditions • Monsoon Prediction • Summary • Climatology
Precip Patterns: Last 90 Days For the past 90 days, the precipitation pattern over Pakistan, India, and Myanmar was at near to slightly above normal levels, above normal over Borneo island, below normal over eastern China, and a mixed bag over Australia.
Precip Patterns: Last 30 Days For the past 30 days, the precipitation over northern India and northeastern Pakistan and adjoining Afghanistan was above normal, and much below normal over much of northern and northcentral Australia. In between, over Malaysia, Indonesia, Philippines and New Guinea, the precipitation amounts were at near to below normal levels.
Precip Patterns: Last 7 Days In this past week, north central India, Pakistan and parts of the middle east continued to receive slightly above normal rainfall. This past week and continued into this week, the tropical west Pacific was tormented with severe tropical cyclone activity, at one time there were four active systems. Category five TC Pam devastated the island of Vanuatu in tropical south west Pacific. Tropical storms Bavi in the northwest Pacific and TC Nathan now situated slightly east of Queensland are still active.
Atmospheric Circulation Generally these CDAS maps are two days behind. But sometimes, as it is today, due to technical issues, these maps are further behind.
Rainfall Time Seriesover 5x5 lat-lon boxes The time series of precipitation over the various regions is pretty much consistent with the spatial maps shown earlier.
NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts Accumulated Precip. for Week 1 & Week 2 Week-1 Week-2
NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts Bias-Corrected Precip. Anom. for Week 1 & Week 2 Week-1 Week-2
Summary For the past 90 days, the precipitation pattern over Pakistan, India, and Myanmar was at near to slightly above normal levels, above normal over Borneo island, below normal over eastern China, and a mixed bag over Australia. For the past 30 days, the precipitation over northern India and northeastern Pakistan and adjoining Afghanistan was above normal, and much below normal over much of northern and northcentral Australia. In between, over Malaysia, Indonesia, Philippines and New Guinea, the precipitation amounts were at near to below normal levels. In this past week, north central India, Pakistan and parts of the Middle East continued to receive slightly above normal rainfall. This past week and continued into this week, the tropical west Pacific was tormented with severe tropical cyclone activity, and at one time there were four active systems. Category five tropical cyclone Pam devastated the island of Vanuatu in tropical south west Pacific. Tropical storm Bavi in the northwest Pacific and tropical cyclone Nathan now situated slightly east of Queensland, are still active. In the next two weeks, the NCEP GFS model is predicting overall below normal precipitation over most of the monsoon region, except along the east coast of Queensland from tropical cyclone Nathan early this week.
