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This report provides an update on the recent evolution, current status, and prediction of the Asian-Australian monsoon system. It includes information on recent rainfall and current conditions, monsoon prediction, and climatology. The report also highlights precipitation patterns over the last 90, 30, and 7 days, as well as atmospheric circulation and forecast models.
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The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP January 06, 2014 For more information, visit:http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/Asian_Monsoons/Asian_Monsoons.shtml
Outline • Recent Rainfall and Current Conditions • Monsoon Prediction • Summary • Climatology
Precip Patterns: Last 90 Days During the past 90 days, rainfall has been generally above normal across eastern coastal central India, Indonesia, and Philippines, but below normal especially over peninsular southern India, parts of eastern China, Japan, Korea, Vietnam and interior central and eastern Australia.
Precip Patterns: Last 30 Days The 30-day anomalous rainfall pattern shows severe drought like rainfall deficits across northeastern and eastern Australia, and along TamilNadu coastal state of southern India, where the Northeast Monsoon that just ended in December did poorly. However, above normal rainfall conditions appear along southeastern China and across the various Indonesian maritime continent.
Precip Patterns: Last 7 Days The significant feature of the rainfall distribution this past week is the severe rainfall deficit across entire Northern Australia adding to existing deficits. Elsewhere the rainfall is quite seasonal.
Rainfall Time Seriesover 5x5 lat-lon boxes The time series of precipitation over the various regions is pretty much consistent with the spatial maps shown earlier.
NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts Bias-Corrected Precip. Anom. for Weak 1 & Week 2 Week-1 Week-2
Summary During the past 90 days, rainfall has been generally above normal across eastern coastal central India, Indonesia, and Philippines, but below normal especially over peninsular southern India, parts of eastern China, Japan, Korea, Vietnam and interior central and eastern Australia. The 30-day anomalous rainfall pattern shows severe drought like rainfall deficits across northeastern and eastern Australia, and along TamilNadu coastal state of southern India, where the Northeast Monsoon that just ended in December did poorly. However, above normal rainfall conditions appear along southeastern China and across the various Indonesian maritime continent. The significant feature of the rainfall distribution this past week is the severe rainfall deficit across entire Northern Australia adding to existing deficits. Elsewhere the rainfall is quite seasonal. For the next two weeks NCEP GFS model continues to predict below normal rainfall over Australia.
