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By: Anirban Basu Sage Policy Group, Inc. February 19 th , 2014

Back to the Future Part II. On Behalf of Mechanical Contractors Association of Maryland. By: Anirban Basu Sage Policy Group, Inc. February 19 th , 2014. Raging Bull (1980). Historic and Projected World Output Growth 2004 through 2015*. Source: International Monetary Fund.

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By: Anirban Basu Sage Policy Group, Inc. February 19 th , 2014

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  1. Back to the Future Part II On Behalf of Mechanical Contractors Association of Maryland By: AnirbanBasu Sage Policy Group, Inc. February 19th, 2014

  2. Raging Bull (1980)

  3. Historic and Projected World Output Growth 2004 through 2015* Source: International Monetary Fund *2014-2015 data are projections

  4. Real GDP Growth, 20 Fastest and Slowest Growing CountriesEstimated 2013, Annual Percent Change (for available nations) Source: International Monetary Fund *2013-2014 data are projections

  5. Estimated Growth in Output by Select Global Areas2013 Source: International Monetary Fund *For India, data and forecasts are presented on a fiscal year basis and output growth is based on GDP at market prices. Corresponding growth forecasts for GDP at factor cost are 4.6 percent for 2013.

  6. Estimated Growth in Output by Select Global Areas2014 Projected Source: International Monetary Fund *For India, data and forecasts are presented on a fiscal year basis and output growth is based on GDP at market prices. Corresponding growth forecasts for GDP at factor cost are 4.6 percent for 2013.

  7. Debt by Selected Country2012 Source: International Monetary Fund *IMF Staff Projections

  8. Top 12 Stock Exchanges 2013 Growth* Source: Yahoo! Finance *Change from the 2012 close to the 2013 close.

  9. Top 12 Stock Exchanges Year-to-date Growth through 2/14/2014 Source: Yahoo! Finance

  10. S&P Select Sector Performance12-Month Percent Change as of February 14th, 2014 Source: Standard & Poor’s

  11. Federal Reserve Balance Sheet v. S&P 500 IndexMay 2008 – February 2014 S&P 500 index depicted in orange Source: Federal Reserve Bank; Yahoo Finance

  12. Fourth Quarter Earnings for Select CorporationsEarnings per Share Source: Yahoo! Finance

  13. Recession Watchas of November 2013 Source: Moody’s Economy

  14. Industrial ProductionJanuary 2001 through January 2014 Source: Federal Reserve The industrial production index measures the real output of the manufacturing, mining, and electric and gas utilities industries.

  15. Gross Domestic Product1990Q1 through 2013Q4* Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis *Advanced (1st) Estimate

  16. Contributions to GDP Growth by Component Q4 2012 – Q4 2013 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

  17. Contributions to GDP Growth by Component Q4 2012 – Q4 2013 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

  18. Ordinary People (1980)

  19. Net Change in U.S. Jobs, BLSJanuary 2002 through January 2014 January 2014: +113K Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

  20. National Construction Employment Monthly Net ChangeJanuary 2000 through January 2014 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

  21. National Nonfarm Employmentby Industry SectorJanuary 2013 v. January 2014 All told 2,238 K Jobs gained Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

  22. Cumulative Job Growth Since December 2007: Full-time v. Part-timeDecember2007 – January 2014 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey Full-time: -3.95 million Part-time: +2.80 million

  23. Maryland Nonfarm Employmentby Industry Sector Groups (SA)December 2012 v. December 2013Absolute Change MD Total: +36.0K; +1.4% US Total (SA): +2,322K; +1.7% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics *According to the Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS) series MD lost 20,044 jobs between December 2012 and December 2013.

  24. Baltimore-Towson MSA Nonfarm Employmentby Industry Sector Groups (NSA)December 2012 v. December 2013Absolute Change Baltimore MSA Total: +18.6K; +1.4% MD Total (SA): +36.0K; +1.4% US Total (SA): +2,322K; +1.7% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

  25. Washington, DC-Arlington-Alexandria MSA Nonfarm Employmentby Industry Sector Groups (NSA)December 2012 v. December 2013Absolute Change DC MSA Total: +25.8K; +0.8% US Total (SA): +2,322K; +1.7% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

  26. Employment Growth, U.S. States (SA) December 2012 v. December 2013 Percent Change Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics U.S. Year-over-year Percent Change: 1.7%

  27. State-by-state Growth in Construction JobsDecember 2012 v. December 2013 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics *Construction, Mining, and Logging are included in one industry.

  28. Unemployment Rates, U.S. States (SA) December 2013 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics U.S. Unemployment Rate: 6.7%

  29. Unemployment Rates, 20 Largest Metros (NSA)December 2013 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

  30. MD County Unemployment RatesDecember 2013 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

  31. Field of Dreams (1989)

  32. 15-Year & 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates February 1995 through February 2014 Source: Freddie Mac

  33. U.S. New Home SalesJanuary 1999 through December 2013 Source: Economy.com, Census Bureau

  34. U.S. Housing StartsJanuary 1999 through January 2014 Source: Census Bureau

  35. U.S. Housing Building PermitsJanuary 1999 through January 2014 January 2014: 1 Unit: 602K 5 Units or more: 309K Source: Census Bureau

  36. S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices for Select Metros November 2013, 12-Month Percentage Change Source: Standard & Poor’s

  37. The Shining (1980)

  38. ABC’s National Construction Backlog Indicator (CBI) Average2009Q1 through 2013Q3 2012Q3 - 2013Q3: +2.8% Source: ABC

  39. Architecture Billings IndexJanuary 2008 through January 2014 January 2014: 50.4 Source: The American Institute of Architects

  40. Nonresidential Construction Put-in-PlaceDecember 2006 through December2013 Dec. 08: $697.4 billion Dec. 13: $573.1 billion -17.8% Source: U.S. Census Bureau

  41. National Nonresidential Construction Spending by SubsectorDecember 2012 v. December 2013 Source: U.S. Census Bureau

  42. Inputs to Construction PPIJanuary 2001 – January 2014 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

  43. Inputs to Construction PPIAugust 2007 – January 2014 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

  44. Key Commodity PricesJanuary 2001 – January 2014 Source: BLS: EIA

  45. Construction Materials PPI12-month % Change as of January 2014 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

  46. Baltimore-Towson MSA Value of Construction Under Contract2012-2013 Source: Mcgraw Hill Construction

  47. Coming to America (1988) • The world is not perfect - black swan threats remain: (1) Iran (2) Israel/Iran (3) Europe (4) contagion (5) cyber (6) EMP; • Healthcare reform could slow full-time hiring over the course of the year; and • Further evidence of Maryland’s economic and demographic under-performance. • Economy gained momentum over the course of last year; • Tailwinds included booming stock market, lower gasoline prices, stabilizing global economy, and consumer expenditures on interest rate sensitive durable goods like housing and autos; • The current year is associated with greater certainty regarding federal budgeting and monetary policy – that helps;

  48. Thank You • Follow us on Twitter @SagePolicyGroup • You can always reach me at abasu@sagepolicy.com • Please look for updates of information at www.sagepolicy.com. • Also, if you need us in a hurry, we are at 410.522.7243 (410.522.SAGE) • Please contact us when you require economic research & policy analysis.

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