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Will the World Be Able to Feed a Population of 9 Billion?

Will the World Be Able to Feed a Population of 9 Billion?. Ben Cmejla and Ben Rubin. What it takes to feed one person: Subsistence Food Requirements. Minimum per capita calorie requirement: 2900 kcal/day Minimum per capita protein consumption: 80 g /day

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Will the World Be Able to Feed a Population of 9 Billion?

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  1. Will the World Be Able to Feed a Population of 9 Billion? Ben Cmejla and Ben Rubin

  2. What it takes to feed one person: Subsistence Food Requirements Minimum per capita calorie requirement: 2900 kcal/day Minimum per capita protein consumption: 80 g/day Minimum per capita animal protein consumption: 40 g/day • The greatest concern: Animal protein deficiency • Less then a quarter of the world meets this minimum • The expected global average is 29g/day by 2025 • In France, the average is 76 g/day (Gilland, 2002)

  3. The Big Picture of Global Food Security Estimates of the Number of Undernourished (millions) (Senauer and Sur, 2001)

  4. A Regional Perspective (Senauer and Sur, 2001)

  5. A Local Perspective • Countries are NOT limited by land • Limitations • Infrastructure • Disease • Socio-politics • Policy Support • Research

  6. How can economic development resolve issues of food insecurity? Calorie-income Engel curve • Real Food prices in the future • Will the prices of basic staples be higher or lower in 2050? • Pro-poor policies • Emphasis on the development of human capital (basic education, healthcare, etc.) • Redistribution of wealth • When is calorie-income Engel curve telling the most accurate story? (Senauer and Sur, 2001)

  7. Maintaining the Status Quo: The Importance of Crop Yield Crop Yield vs. Cultivated Area • Between 1993 and 2020, 80% of total crop output growth in developed countries and 94% in developing countries will come from increases in crop yield (Rosegrant, 1997) How? • Biotechnology + Fertilizer • In 1998, 55% of total fertilizer use was directed towards cereal crops, 60% of which was nitrogen fertilizer • Agriculture biotechnology had increased the nitrogen uptake efficiency of the US maize crop to 80% by 1996 (Gilland, 2002)

  8. Limitations on Agricultural Production Cropland availability and land degradation are only small factors! The biggest issue: WATER • By 2020, global water withdrawals will reach 5050 billion cubic meters, increasing 35% from 1997 • The developing world will increase water withdrawals by 45% to 3350 billion cubic meters in the same time period • Between 1997 and 2020, the combined share of domestic and industrial water use will increase from 13% to 27% (Rosegrant, 1997)

  9. Grain on the World Market Will world markets adequately allocate food resources? Net Grain Exporters: • Largest: United States, France, Argentina, Canada, and Australia • All have the capacity to supply cereals to populations far larger than their own • If the United States was willing to reduce its own per capita cereal consumption from 900 kg per year to 420 kg, it could supply 800 million people with grain (Gilland, 2002) Net Gain Importers: • Will China price poorer countries out of the market? • NO: China should still be able to maintain 95% grain independent (Alexandratos, 2005)

  10. Conclusion • At global, regional, national and local levels food shortages will remain • The causes are inequality and inequitable distribution of resources • Income growth is not enough to solve the problem • Redistribution • Public Policy • Research • Significant investment and innovation will be necessary simply to maintain current standards of global food security

  11. References Gilland, Bernard (2002), "World Population and Food Supply: Can Food Production Keep Pace with Population Growth in the Next Half-Century?", Food Policy v27, n1 (February 2002): 47-63. Alexandratos, Nicos (2005), "Countries with Rapid Population Growth and Resource Constraints: Issues of Food Agriculture and Development", Population and Development Review, Vol. 31, no. 2, June 2005, pp. 237-258. Rosegrant, Mark W.; Sombilla, Mercedita A. (1997), "Critical Issues Suggested by Trends in Food, Population, and the Environment to the Year 2020" American Journal of Agricultural Economics v79, n5 (1997): 1467-1470. Senauer, Ben and Mona Sur (2001), "Ending Global Hunger in the 21st Century: Projections of the Number of Food Insecure People", Review of Agricultural Economics, vol. 23, no. 1, pp68-81. (Omit pp 70-75.)

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