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Minnesota Demographic Trends

Minnesota Demographic Trends. Martha McMurry Minnesota State Demographic Center January 20, 2009. Minnesota Has Been Very Successful (Especially For A Cold Weather State at the End of the Road). Our economic growth rate has exceeded the national average

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Minnesota Demographic Trends

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  1. Minnesota Demographic Trends Martha McMurry Minnesota State Demographic Center January 20, 2009

  2. Minnesota Has Been Very Successful(Especially For A Cold Weather State at the End of the Road) • Our economic growth rate has exceeded the national average • Our population growth rate leads the frost belt • We rank with the leaders on many social and economic indicators • Education has been a key contributor to the state’s success

  3. However…. Past Performance Does Not Ensure Future Results

  4. Some major trends of the 2000s • Slower population growth • Slower economic and job growth • Growing concern over education • Aging • Increasing racial and ethnic diversity

  5. Slower growth in 2000s 1990-2000: Minnesota population grew 12.4%, averaging 1.2% per year. 2000-2009: Minnesota population grew 6.7%, averaging 0.7% per year. This decade 42 of 87 counties have gained population. Last decade, 62 counties gained population.

  6. Why has population growth slowed down? • Mainly “It’s the economy”….there are not as many new jobs, so Minnesota is not attracting new residents. • Census Bureau estimates Minnesota had net in-migration of about 62,000 between 2000 and 2009. • In 1990s, there was net in-migration of about 258,000.

  7. Projected population change in Minnesota from 2005 to 2030 Source: Minnesota State Demographic Center Numbers are rounded.

  8. Minnesota Births and Deaths, 1925 to 2007 Births Baby boom Baby bust Deaths Source: Mn Dept of Health

  9. From 2010 to 2020, Minnesota will see large increases in ages 55 to 74 Boomers Baby Busters Mini Boom Source: Minnesota State Demographic Center Numbers are rounded

  10. Economic challenges we face • Competition with other states and other countries. • An aging population will result in a wave of retirements and more demand for public services. • Demographic and economic shifts will make it more difficult for state government to raise revenue.

  11. Minnesota Disposable Income Per Capita Relative to US 1950-2008 Will Minnesota continue to be a relatively wealthy state, or will we revert to average or below average? U.S .Bureau of Economic Analysis, Above zero indicates Minnesota higher

  12. Job growth plummets in the 2000s Future job growth is essential for a growing economy U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis; QCEW data from Minnesota Dept. of Employment and Economic Development

  13. Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rate November 2009--7.4 isn’t low but it beats 10.0 Unemployment rate does not include discouraged or underemeployed workers Minnesota Dept. of Employment and Economic Development

  14. Competition For the Future Workforce Will Increase Easier to find jobs? Will employers move elsewhere? Will we attract more migrants? Will economy grow more slowly? Census Bureau US Proj, Mn State Demographer revised 2007. The 18 year old population, both Minnesota & nationally, is projected to decline starting 2009.

  15. Productivity Remains The Key To Quality of Life In Minnesota Economic Growth=Labor Force Growth + Productivity Growth Productivity growth comes from Private investment Public investment Technology from research Skills & abilities of workers

  16. Minnesota educational attainment ranks high • Minnesota ranks 2nd on percentage of adults who have graduated from high school (91.9%, vs. national average of 85.0%). • Minnesota ranks 11th on percentage of adults who are college graduates (31.5% vs. national average of 27.7%). • However…..

  17. More than a quarter of Minnesota high school students do not graduate on time Minnesota Department of Education

  18. Spending Priorities Will ChangeThe Largest Cost Drivers In The State Budget Water resources must compete with demographically-driven expenses Census counts & State Demographer projection, revised 2007

  19. Minnesota Minority Proportion Will Increase, but Continue to Lag U.S. U.S. Census Bureau; Minnesota State Demographic Center

  20. Per capita water use in Minnesota

  21. Water challenges for the 2000s • Indirect demographic effects on tax revenues and expenditures may be more significant than direct effects on water use. • Minnesota’s current status reflects individual and public decisions made in the past. • Our future will depend on the individual and public decisions we make now.

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